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XRP’s Implied Volatility Explodes, Suggests 13% Price Swing as Congress’ Crypto Week Kicks Off

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The price of XRP (XRP) is likely to swing wildly over the next week, rising or falling more than 10% during Crypto Week on Capitol Hill, the token’s implied volatility indicates.

Volmex Finance’s seven-day XRP implied volatility (IV) index jumped to an annualized 96% from last week’s 73%, a significant premium to the seven-day historical volatility of 42%. The elevated value translates to an expected 13% price swing for XRP over the coming seven days.

The market is pricing much lower volatility in bitcoin (BTC). The seven-day implied volatility for the largest cryptocurrency has increased only slightly to an annualized 46%, equivalent to an expected weekly price swing of about 6%.

XRP's annualized 7-day implied volatility. (Volmex)

The sharp rise in XRP’s implied volatility comes as the U.S. House of Representatives is set to review three major bills this week that could shape the digital assets industry.

The first is the GENUIS Act, which, if passed, would require stablecoin issuers to hold liquid reserves, accept annual independent audits and publish monthly transparency reports.

Also on the table is the CLARITY Act, which will clarify whether cryptocurrencies fall under the SEC or the CFTC’s purview. Lastly, there is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, which will prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail central bank digital currency. XRP, declared as a strategic U.S. asset by the SEC, stands to benefit from regulatory clarity.

«The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act are especially important for setting institutional ground rules — clarifying how stablecoins should be issued and overseen, and formally defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing crypto markets. Together, these steps address one of the core barriers to institutional participation: legal uncertainty,» Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón, the chief investment officer at crypto liquidity provider XBTO, said in an email.

He added that the rulebook clarity will make long-term capital deployment viable, aligning the world’s largest economy with processes underway in regions like the UAE, where «defined frameworks are already unlocking tokenized markets.»

«If passed, these bills could open the door to wider stablecoin adoption, regulated tokenization, and on-chain financial products with full legal backing,» he noted.

Volatility is direction-agnostic

Note that the implied volatility is direction-agnostic, meaning the expected 13% swing may not necessarily be bullish and can unfold in either direction.

That said, XRP is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum, trading over 5% higher on the day at $3, the level not seen since early February, according to CoinDesk data.

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U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy

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The Federal Reserve and other U.S. banking agencies issued another statement on the proper handling of crypto assets on Monday, outlining the appropriate policies that need to be followed for banks engaging in the «safekeeping» of customers’ digital assets.

The statement sent out from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency made clear that these latest considerations do not represent a new policy push.

The trio of agencies set out to clarify that properly keeping such assets involves «controlling the cryptographic keys associated with the crypto-asset in a manner that complies with applicable laws and regulations.»

Apart from cryptographic key management, the seven-page memo outlined some of the demands of money-laundering controls, risk-management oversight, software knowledge and audits.

«This statement discusses how existing laws, regulations and risk-management principles apply to this activity, and does not create any new supervisory expectations,» the agencies said.

The U.S. banking regulators have had a tumultuous relationship with the digital assets space, having issued guidance during the previous administration of President Joe Biden that constrained bankers from easily doing business with crypto firms. But the regulators under President Donald Trump have rolled back that guidance.

The latest sentiments from the agencies come at the start of the U.S. House of Representatives’ self-described Crypto Week in which the lawmakers are expected to approve multiple crypto bills in an effort toward establishing formal U.S. digital assets regulations.

Read More: Former Bitfury Exec Gould Confirmed to Take Over U.S. Banking Agency OCC

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Anti-Bitcoin Vanguard Might Be the Largest Institutional Holder of MSTR Stock

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Vanguard, the $10 trillion asset manager known in crypto circles for blocking client access to bitcoin ETFs, has emerged as the largest institutional shareholder of Strategy (MSTR), a company whose business model is built around buying and holding bitcoin.

According to Bloomberg, Vanguard now owns more than 20 million shares of MSTR — over 8% of the company — surpassing Capital Group as the top institutional holder. The stake is worth about $9.26 billion.

«God has a sense of humor,» said Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who has also written The Bolge Effect. «Vanguard chose this life. When you have an index fund, you have to own all the stocks, for better or worse, and that includes stocks that you may not like or approve of personally.»

«Institutional dementia,» said a somewhat less diplomatic Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck. “Indexing into $9 billion of what you openly mock isn’t strategy,” he wrote in a post on X.

Vanguard’s exposure comes from passively managed index funds, not a deliberate bet on bitcoin or Strategy’s strategy. MSTR is included in several of Vanguard’s funds, such as the Total Stock Market Index Fund (VITSX), the Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund (VIEIX) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG).

These funds mirror the composition of broad stock indices and automatically include companies like Strategy when they meet certain criteria.

Strategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, has converted itself into a bitcoin holding vehicle, acquiring more than 600,000 BTC worth now about $72 billion since 2020. The company’s shares have become a proxy for bitcoin exposure, especially in the years before the U.S. approved spot bitcoin ETFs.

Still, Vanguard remains opposed to the asset class. The firm has refused to offer clients access to bitcoin ETFs, even as competitors like BlackRock launched the wildly successful iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which became the fastest ETF to manage over $80 billion in assets.

Even the arrival of supposedly crypto-friendly CEO Salim Ramji in May last year hasn’t shifted the firm’s position. “I think it’s important for firms to have consistency in terms of what they stand for and the products and services they offer,” Ramji said after his appointment.

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The Node: GENIUS, Clarity and a CBDC Ban

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Three different crypto bills could potentially pass through the House of Representatives in the next few days: the GENIUS Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act.

The “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025” (GENIUS) Act would set up a framework for overseeing stablecoins. It has already passed the Senate, so it has a solid chance of becoming the first crypto-focused bill to be signed into law by the federal government.

The “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025” (Clarity) Act, meanwhile, is a meatier piece of legislation that would create clear jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the regulation of digital assets.

The crypto industry has been waiting for such a bill for a long time, Katherine Dowling, general counsel at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.

This Clarity Act does not have a counterpart in the Senate yet, though multiple hearings on the topic have been held, and the hope is that the legislation will be inked into law before the end of the year.

As for the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, it would prohibit the U.S. from creating its own central bank digital currency.

“If not designed to be open, permissionless, and private — resembling cash — a government-issued CBDC is nothing more than an Orwellian surveillance tool that would be used to erode the American way of life. We’re not going to let that happen,” the bill’s sponsor, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, posted back in the spring. This bill does not have a counterpart in the Senate either.

All three pieces of legislation are expected to pass the House with bipartisan support. That would be a big win for the industry. The bills aren’t flawless, Dowling said, but even an imperfect framework will dispel the current regulatory ambiguity and help crypto companies operate in the U.S. The rough spots will likely be smoothed out over time, she argued.

“Other countries are already in the race, while we’re still lacing up our shoes,” she told CoinDesk. But Washington has changed its attitude towards crypto incredibly quickly since Donald Trump’s re-election and former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s departure, she said.

«You have to keep that momentum up. Labeling it ‘Crypto Week’ and having it part of the presidential agenda is really so important,» she said.

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