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XRP Price Outlook Grim as Traders Go Short, Exchange Inflows Increase

Net inflows to spot XRP tokens turned positive early Thursday after days of outflows, putting the token in focus following a record-breaking month for its native decentralized exchange (DEX).
Over $15 million in XRP flowed to centralized exchanges on Thursday led by deposits to Bybit and Kraken, Coinglass data shows. Spot inflows to exchanges may mark an intention to sell tokens on the open market, dampening chances of a rally.
Meanwhile, 8-hour funding rates in the XRP perpetual futures markets stood at -0.0065% as of Thursday morning, implying a bias for short positions that profit from price drops. Notably, XRP’s funding rates were more negative than ETH and BTC.
Negative funding rates mean traders holding short positions are willing to pay a small fee to those with long positions to keep their bearish bets open.
XRP below key averages
XRP trades below several key moving averages, with the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.84 and 21-day EMA at $2.88. Trading below these moving averages suggests a bearish short-term outlook.
However, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) is just above $2, and the 200-day SMA is at $1.30, both below the current price, indicating a bullish longer-term trend. Moving averages help identify trends by smoothing out price data, and the period readings used above are popularly used by retail traders.
Meanwhile, immediate resistance at $2.49, followed by the $2.60 level. A move past these levels would revive the bullish outlook, setting the stage for a run to the $3 mark, which it breached in January for the first time since 2018.
XRP’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) — which measures magnitude of price changes — was just over 36 in Asian hours, placing it in the neutral zone. Traditionally, RSI values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, while values below 30 suggest oversold conditions. An RSI around 50 is considered neutral.
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Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group

The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.
The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).
According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.
The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.
The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.
However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.
Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.
Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.
The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.
Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.
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What’s Next for Bitcoin and Ether as Downside Fears Ease Ahead of Fed Rate Cut?

Fears of a downside for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17.
BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata.
The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. Ether’s options skew is exhibiting a similar pattern at the time of writing.
The skew shows the market’s directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection.
The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk data.
What happens next largely depends on the size of the impending Fed rate cut. According to CME’s Fed funds futures, traders have priced in over 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%-4.25%. But there is also a slight possibility of a jumbo 50 bps move.
BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move.
«A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,» Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. «Gold will go absolutely nuts as well.»
Note that the Deribit-listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts.
Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm «grind higher» for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added.
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Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.
Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.
According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.
The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.
USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.
Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.
Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.
Market Movement
BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.
Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.
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