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Without Operational Alpha, Bitcoin Treasury Company Premiums Will Collapse

Published

2 месяца ago

7 июля, 2025

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Listed companies are rapidly transforming into bitcoin treasury vehicles, raising capital to buy BTC and hold it on their balance sheets. With bitcoin increasingly seen as a potential global reserve asset, gaining institutional traction and strong price expectations, this trend might seem sound. But there’s a problem: most of these companies have acquisition plans without a business plan.

Why buy at a premium when you can buy bitcoin directly?

Almost any investor can buy bitcoin directly, either spot or via ETFs. So why invest through a listed company trading at a significant premium to the net asset value (NAV) of its bitcoin?

The short answer is: you shouldn’t, unless the company has a clear strategy for putting its bBitcoin to work in a way investors can’t easily replicate. Holding BTC must serve an operational purpose. Otherwise, the company should return the capital and let shareholders buy bitcoin on their own terms.

Bitcoin Yield ≠ Business Model

To justify premiums, some analysts now use the concept of bitcoin yield, the percentage increase in BTC per share over time. While it’s an interesting KPI to track, it doesn’t justify a premium to NAV on its own.

Yes, if a company issues equity at a premium above NAV and buys more BTC, it can increase BTC per share. But if an investor’s goal is to gain the maximum bitcoin exposure per dollar invested, investors should just buy BTC directly.

Leveraged long with limited upside

To speed up their acquisitions, many treasury companies raise capital through various types of convertible debt. The result is a leveraged long position in bitcoin, with full downside exposure and limited upside. This structure is exactly why creditors have been eager to underwrite such instruments.

If bitcoin falls, creditors get repaid in USD, while the company may be forced to sell its BTC holdings to cover the debt. If bitcoin rises, creditors convert their debt into shares at a discount and sell them to capture the upside above the conversion price. That’s upside that would otherwise belong to shareholders.

As an investor choosing between buying into a leveraged bBitcoin equity company or simply taking on leverage against your own BTC, you have to ask: Is the reduced upside worth avoiding the work of doing it yourself?

If the company also trades at a substantial premium to its underlying bitcoin and lacks any operational plan beyond buying and holding BTC, the answer is likely no.

The same applies to other simple risk-taking strategies, such as lending out BTC in exchange for interest; they introduce risk, but do little to justify the premium.

A business plan, not just a BTC plan

This doesn’t mean all bitcoin treasury companies should trade at or below NAV. But a premium requires more than a funding and acquisition strategy, it requires a business strategy.

A strong bitcoin balance sheet can serve as a powerful foundation for an operational business. In finance, balance sheets are the basis for lending, trading, structuring and more, and some of the current nBitcoin treasury companies will likely emerge as financial giants of the future.

Brokerage, liquidity provision, collateralized lending and structured products are all examples of operational models that can scale, generate revenue, and justify premium valuations.

By contrast, simply raising funds to chase «bitcoin yield» is not a business plan. If a pure play treasury company doesn’t develop an operational plan, its premium will collapse, and it may eventually be acquired by a firm that does know how to put bitcoin to work.

Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate. To beat BTC, companies must do more than just buy and hold it. They must figure out how to build a Bitcoin-based business.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

15 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

15 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

admin

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Business

Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Published

15 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.