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Why Trump’s Tariffs Could Actually Be Good for Bitcoin

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So far, crypto markets haven’t behaved as expected under the Trump Administration. Investors hoped that regulatory reform and policies like a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would drive prices appreciably higher. But it’s been the opposite. Bitcoin has fallen from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of the year to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March.

Crypto prices have suffered from being increasingly correlated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which have been hit by macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs — surcharges the U.S. places on imports from other countries — have Wall Street worried about a global recession. Crypto investors have been steering clear of crypto assets, which are seen as relatively risky.

“This is all about markets’ ‘risk appetite’ which continues to deteriorate, and for the time being drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services International.

“[That’s] in no small part driven by central bank FX reserve managers, who are seeking to reduce USD exposure, which has long been a source of concern to them.”

As the global financial and trade system becomes more fragmented, investors are seeking alternatives to riskier assets, including dollars. For now, that means turning to gold, which is up 18% year-to-date.

But that could change, said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and author of «The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner’s Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands.» Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough.

“I think the entire [future] is uncertain and in some ways unknowable, because there are many crosscurrents and both crypto and tariffs are new. Some people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to tariffs. But bitcoin has found footing in some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the tariff news. So which will it be?”

In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months.

Another note of positivity: the impact of tariffs on crypto could be “priced in” and the worst might be over already, said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm.

President Trump is due to announce U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, April 2, at 4 p.m. ET—what’s known as “Liberation Day.” According to reports, he’ll lay out “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have levied tariffs against the U.S., including China, Canada and Mexico.

Pandl estimates tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth this year. But Liberation Day might actually stop the worst of the pain felt in financial markets. “If we see an announcement [on Wednesday] that is tough but phased, and focused on the 15 countries they seem to be targeting, my expectation is that markets will rally on that news,” Pandl told CoinDesk.

“Potentially once we get through this announcement, crypto markets can focus back on the fundamentals which are very positive.”Pandl said announcements like Circle’s IPO wouldn’t be happening if institutions didn’t have a high degree of confidence in the digital assets sector and the policies around it.

Moreover, Pandl, a former macro-economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for currencies that aren’t dollars.

“I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin. Prices have gone down in the short run. But the first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my conviction in the longer term for bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”

Pendl still believes that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I wouldn’t have quit my Wall Street job if I didn’t think bitcoin will be the winner in the long term,” he said.

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Bitcoin Is the Asset, Ethereum Is the Platform

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Blockchains are a technical marvel, but in this vastly competitive landscape, I’ve come to see the social consensus and ecosystem around blockchains as by far their most important strategic asset. The social layer matters, but for different reasons depending on the chain.

Specifically, I have the hypothesis that the “Layer 0” for any blockchain ecosystem can only excel at one primary mission. When I say “Layer 0,” what I am really talking about are the communities of people that sustain these networks. They are everyone from enthusiasts to engineers, developers, investors, venture capitalists and volunteers. As public networks that are built with open-source code, the strength of each ecosystem is primarily the community around it.

Despite their superficial similarities, the communities and the ecosystems that underpin bitcoin and Ethereum are radically different. I have long said that “bitcoin is the asset. Ethereum is the platform.” In both cases, the social consensus around these blockchains is what keeps them together and makes each one ideally suited for its mission.

Bitcoin first. Bitcoin is a scarcity-based store-of-value. Better than fiat currency. More reliably scarce than gold. Immune to politics and protected by a vast proof of work infrastructure. Bitcoin is in a constant battle for mindshare with other crypto-assets and, even more so, against traditional fiat currencies and central-bank-issued assets.

This is not the same as other stores-of-value. There can be many kinds of government and corporate debt, and their values are all tied to the likelihood of repayment. The closest analogy for bitcoin is with gold, which does not pay interest or generate any cash flow. Nor is there any meaningful industrial demand for gold. The value of gold is simply that it is scarce and getting more of it is not easy.

One particularly important feature of this crypto ecosystem is that it is a zero-sum game. If you admit that there can be more than one cryptocurrency used as a store of value, you are on a slippery slope because technically, there can be an infinite supply of identical copies of bitcoin. If there can be two, there can be a thousand. If that happens, the value of bitcoin is uncertain and likely low.

Right now, there are no other cryptocurrencies that have a value even remotely close to that of bitcoin. Assets like litecoin, bitcoin cash, dogecoin and others represent a tiny fraction of bitcoin’s market capitalization. The only asset in the same general league is ether, and I would argue that it should be seen less as a cryptocurrency and more as a stake in a computing ecosystem.

The result of this logic is a uniquely aggressive approach to mindshare. The value of bitcoin must be sustained by constant memetic warfare against other cryptocurrencies. Scroll through r/bitcoin, and you will find a stream of memes that aim to reinforce the value of bitcoin. Typical content includes dire warnings about the U.S. dollar’s debasement with quantitative easing, the serious U.S. federal debt, the horrors of inflation, and rapturous predictions for future prices. That quantitative easing did not cause inflation and that low to moderate inflations inflict no measurable economic harm does not matter in that context: Political harm, yes, economic harm no. (See here and here)

A typical bitcoin meme includes a reminder that a long, long time ago, a dollar would buy you a full bag of groceries. The implication is that you are being robbed through gradual printing of money. This meme has never stood up to the most basic examination. Moderate inflation is fine, necessary, and infinitely better than deflation. We are vastly better off than we were when a dollar could buy a bag or groceries, but acknowledging that would undermine the narrative. It does not matter, however. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

To sustain its value, bitcoin needs a very assertive social consensus. And that has to continue for an exceedingly long time. Gold’s use as a shared global store of value dates to 650 BCE in ancient Türkiye, so they have a significant head start. And while there are other precious metals, none of them have ever approached gold in terms of total market capitalization. The market cap of gold is 10 times larger than the market cap for silver.

The social ecosystem that underpins Ethereum is different. First and foremost, Ethereum is the world computer. Ethereum is a positive-sum ecosystem where people are encouraged to build and extend. The discussion and tone of r/Ethereum is, again, a good proxy for the whole ecosystem: it is focused on engineering, development, and new applications.

Ethereum, like bitcoin, has an equally passionate Layer Zero ecosystem and is as dominant compared to other “smart contract” blockchains as bitcoin is to other pure crypto-assets. Ethereum’s dominance is visible in the market cap of the asset but also in its share of tokenized assets. Ethereum is the dominant ecosystem for most “real-world” assets and the majority of stablecoins as well. With over 100 Layer 2 networks in operation, Ethereum has 20 times more “network extensions” than any other ecosystem, including bitcoin and Solana.

Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems have ardent believers that see things differently from the dominant narrative. There is a small, but resilient application layer being built upon bitcoin. Bitcoin will soon have its own layer two networks, including some that are EVM- compatible.

Similarly, there is a passionate group of Ethereum believers who think Ethereum should be both the network computer and a scarcity-based asset. EIP-1559 (Ethereum Improvement Proposal), which was adopted in August 2021, reduced the rate at which new ETH was issued and shifted the gas fee model so some ETH is burned with each transaction. The result is that the amount of ETH in circulation is increasing at a slower pace than bitcoin and, in some cases, even decreasing.

Neither of these is necessarily a bad idea and, at least in theory, either ecosystem could be a host to both types of activity. In practice, the cultural requirements of each ecosystem are so different that they cannot really excel at more than one function at a time.

In the real world, currencies like the U.S. dollar are most effective as a means of exchange, but not necessarily as a store of value. You can use dollars to buy things, but a deflationary system that increased the value of the dollar, over time, would be catastrophic for the economy as it forced up real interest rates. As Ben Bernanke discovered, trying to stimulate an economy when inflation is low is very difficult. The same problem makes bitcoin unsuitable as a currency even while it may excel as a store of value.

With Ethereum, we’ll see how well the current blockchain boom plays out over the next few years. If the ecosystem retains its dominant share of new asset tokenization and smart contracts, I think we can declare it a winner on the primary mission. Bitcoin has a longer game to play, but if we see increasing correlation with gold, that may be an indicator that real-world investors are buying into the argument for digital scarcity.

Either way, it could be several more years of real world experience before I can prove (or disprove) my theory. This also means that memetic warfare on Twitter between ecosystems isn’t going away anytime soon.

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.

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XRP Futures Start Trading On CME

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XRP futures started trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) derivatives platform on Monday, becoming the first regulated futures tracking the price of XRP in the U.S.

Traders can trade two contract sizes: 2,500 XRP and 50,000 XRP, which will both be cash-settled and based on the SME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which tracks the price of XRP daily at 4:00 p.m. London time.

CME already offers bitcoin BTC, ethereum ETH and solana SOL futures as well as bitcoin and ethereum options. The Group’s SOL futures, which launched in mid-March, had only booked $12.3 million in notional daily volume on the first day and closed with $7.8 million in open interest, a much lower number on an adjusted basis compared to the debut of the ether and bitcoin futures.

The price of XRP was down 3.45% over the past 24 hours.

The existence of regulated futures could mark a big step in the right direction as it relates to a spot XRP exchange-traded fund which is currently under review to be approved or denied by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Several U.S. issuers have filed to launch such a fund but have yet to receive a decision.

«CME-traded XRP futures are now *live*,» wrote ETF Store President Nate Geraci on X. «CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP. Spot XRP ETFs only a matter of time.»

The former SEC under Chair Gary Gensler had previously told issuers that one of the reasons it approved the spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs was that it already had an existing regulated futures market in the U.S.

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Dogecoin Finds Support After Sharp Drop as Bulls Regain Momentum

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Dogecoin’s recent price movement shows a classic battle between bears and bulls, with the meme cryptocurrency finding stability after a significant downtrend.

The coin experienced a 9.7% drop from $0.237 to $0.214 before buyers stepped in at key support levels. This buying pressure has created what analysts describe as a «panic zone retest» around the $0.215 mark, which has so far held firm against selling pressure.

Market structure indicates DOGE is currently navigating a falling wedge pattern, typically considered a bullish reversal formation when broken to the upside.

The Ichimoku cloud on short-term charts shows price lodged in equilibrium territory, with multiple technical indicators converging to create tight reference levels between $0.212 and $0.225.

For traders, the immediate focus remains on whether DOGE can break above the descending trendline resistance near $0.219-$0.220. A decisive move above this level could target the $0.235-$0.244 range, while failure to hold current support might see prices retreat toward $0.20 or even $0.185 in the near term.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • DOGE formed a descending channel with clear resistance at the $0.235 level, where selling pressure consistently emerged.
  • A notable support zone developed around $0.215-$0.217, confirmed by increased volume during the 13:00 hour.
  • V-shaped reversal pattern formed with the bottom at $0.215 around 13:14, followed by steady accumulation.
  • Volume significantly increased to over 10 million units around 13:30, triggering a sharp upward movement.
  • New support zone established at $0.218, with multiple high-volume candles confirming strong buying interest.
  • Overall price action suggests bearish momentum with intermittent consolidation phases.

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