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Why Ether Could Outperform Bitcoin in 2025

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Ether spent most of 2024 trailing behind its cryptocurrency peers but has now firmly joined the rally sparked by bitcoin’s record-breaking climb, crossing the $4,000 mark in December but well below its all time high of $4,900.

In 2024, ether gained around 53% compared to bitcoin’s 113% surge; however, ether’s recent performance shows promise. Since the U.S. election result, ether has increased 39%, outperforming bitcoin’s 35% gain and signaling a potential resurgence driven by market optimism over president-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated pro-crypto policies.

Other key factors driving this optimism include robust staking dynamics, steady transaction fees and growing institutional interest, particularly through ETFs.

Ether futures

While the year started with muted volume, CME ether futures were the go-to product for risk management as spot ether ETFs began trading mid-year and volatility returned to the market toward year-end. In 2024, nearly 12 million contracts representing a total value of $256 billion traded between ether and micro ether futures. Thirty-nine percent of notional volume traded was transacted in Q4 2024 as the crypto markets reacted to the U.S. election results, signaling a buoyant sentiment.

Large open interest holders (designated by the CFTC as entities holding 25 or more contracts) reached new weekly records throughout December, indicating growing client interest in regulated solutions to manage ether risk.

Ether-bitcoin ratio

The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures ether’s performance relative to bitcoin and shows the number of bitcoin needed to buy one ether, reached its lowest level since launch on Nov 20 of 0.032857, which may be its bottom as we see improved regulatory outlook and an increase in institutional adoption.

What’s behind ether’s rebound

1. Ether ETFs outperform bitcoin ETFs

U.S. spot ETH ETFs have received a cumulative $577 million in net inflows since their July 2024 launch, an overall success among the broad ETF universe. Between November 25 and November 29, spot ether ETFs even surpassed the daily inflows of bitcoin ETFs, with ether ETFs experiencing a net inflow of $467 million (including net inflows of $428 million in a single day), marking a shift in investor sentiment.

The approval of both bitcoin and ether ETFs represents a major milestone in the mainstream adoption of digital assets. Looking ahead, the interest of institutional investors could rise even further if regulatory approval allows asset managers to incorporate Ethereum staking yields into ETFs.

2. Alt Season

After months of ether underperforming bitcoin, traders may now see the ETH/BTC ratio’s lower level as an opportunity with a potential gradual rotation from BTC to ETH and other alt coins.

Typically, bitcoin leads the rally, then consolidates as ether and other alt coins catch up. This has been true this cycle where bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 61.7% in October to 57.4% in November and to 56.5% in December, suggesting that altcoins may have begun gaining momentum for a potential alt season.

3. Staking yields

Ether investors can generate extra returns on top of their holdings by staking or locking their coins in the network in return for rewards. As of the time of writing, 28% of ether’s supply is locked in staking contracts with the annualized reward rate averaging 3%. Under a new administration, together with anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continued upgrades to the blockchain, there could be an uptick in ETH’s staking yield.

4. DeFi, smart contracts, DAPPS and NFTs

Ethereum’s value proposition extends beyond being a digital currency, as it remains the dominant blockchain for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (DAPPS), smart contract platforms, NFT (non-fungible token) tokenized assets and Web3 applications.

The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi projects has grown over the past few weeks, reaching $69.4 billion, according to DefiLlama. The surge suggests rising confidence in Ethereum as a platform for financial innovation.

5. Ether upgrades

On March 24, Ethereum implemented the Dencun upgrade, which reduced transaction costs for Layer 2’s and increased the Transactions per Second (TPS) at which they could post to the Layer 1. The adoption of Layer 2’s has shifted noticeably over the last year. In addition, the Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, is one of the largest hard forks ever in terms of the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) count. It aims to improve protocol efficiency, enhance the user experience and expand data capacity, as well as pave the way for future scalability enhancements.

Conclusion

All eyes are on what the Trump administration will bring and the implications for the entire crypto market. The growing interest of institutions in ether ETFs could signify a diversification of institutional portfolios, which were once largely focused on bitcoin. The possibility of staking rewards and ether’s central role in DeFi and NFT innovations in 2025 may bring even more demand for ether.

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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters

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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.

Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.

Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.

The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.

“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.

Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.

Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.

“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.

“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”

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OKX Settles U.S. DOJ Charges, Pays Over $500M Penalty and Forfeiture

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OKX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, settled with U.S. authorities over failing to obtain a license to operate as a money transmitter, the exchange announced Monday.

Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd., an OKX affiliate, is the specific party that settled with the U.S. Department of Justice, paying over $500 million in penalties and forfeited fees, a press release said.

OKX failed to secure a money transmitter license, the exchange said, without detailing which state the license might have been issued from. A DOJ press release said «OKX sought out customers in the United States, including in the Southern District of New York.»

A person familiar with the situation told CoinDesk that the settlement resolved allegations of fraudulent and non-compliant activities at the exchange that took place in past years.

The DOJ’s press release said OKX facilitated more than $5 billion in «suspicious transactions and criminal proceeds,» citing Acting U.S. Attorney Matthew Podolsky.

OKcoin, the American division of OKX, also received a subpoena issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Feb. 24 last year. CoinDesk saw the cover page of the subpoena, which refers to “Certain persons engaged in fraud and other unlawful conduct with respect to digital asset transactions.”

A second person said the CFTC probe into OKcoin relates to last year’s flash crash of the exchange’s native token following the sudden drop in the price of the OKB token on Jan. 23, 2024. OKX told users they would be compensated for losses resulting from the crash.

An internal document circulated to OKX staff in January 2024 highlighted “a new ethics and compliance helpline to provide a confidential and secure space for you to bring up concerns or issues about ethical conduct, policy violations or suspected illegal behavior.”

OKX representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A CFTC spokesperson declined to comment.

UPDATE (Feb. 24, 2025, 21:35 UTC): Adds additional information.

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Payments Card Issuer Infini Offers Reward for Return of Funds After $49 Million Exploit

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Infini, a prepaid payments card issuer that offers interest on deposited dollar stablecoins, warned a hacker it had “gathered critical IP and device information” after losing almost all the value locked in its wallets.

The attacker drained $49.5 million from the Hong Kong-based neobank’s wallets, according to Peckshield. The company said only on Sunday it had hit $50 million in total value locked.

The exploit came just days after Bybit, the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, saw a hacker drain its ether cold wallet and make off with nearly $1.5 billion in crypto’s largest exploit.

“We are closely monitoring the address involved and are prepared to take immediate action to freeze any stolen funds if necessary,» Infini told the hacker in a blockchain transaction. «In an effort to resolve this matter amicably, we are willing to offer you 20% of the stolen assets should you choose to return the funds.”

Infini gave the perpetrator 48 hours to “facilitate a swift resolution,” and that failure to respond means it will “have no choice” but to continue its investigation in collaboration with law enforcement.

According to Cyvers, the exploit occurred after a developer who helped set up its smart contract kept admin rights over it. More than three months later, they leveraged these rights and drained the funds to a wallet funded over cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash.

The neobank’s founder, Christian Li, has pledged to cover the full loss from his personal funds and took responsibility for the incident.

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