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Why Ether Could Outperform Bitcoin in 2025

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Ether spent most of 2024 trailing behind its cryptocurrency peers but has now firmly joined the rally sparked by bitcoin’s record-breaking climb, crossing the $4,000 mark in December but well below its all time high of $4,900.

In 2024, ether gained around 53% compared to bitcoin’s 113% surge; however, ether’s recent performance shows promise. Since the U.S. election result, ether has increased 39%, outperforming bitcoin’s 35% gain and signaling a potential resurgence driven by market optimism over president-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated pro-crypto policies.

Other key factors driving this optimism include robust staking dynamics, steady transaction fees and growing institutional interest, particularly through ETFs.

Ether futures

While the year started with muted volume, CME ether futures were the go-to product for risk management as spot ether ETFs began trading mid-year and volatility returned to the market toward year-end. In 2024, nearly 12 million contracts representing a total value of $256 billion traded between ether and micro ether futures. Thirty-nine percent of notional volume traded was transacted in Q4 2024 as the crypto markets reacted to the U.S. election results, signaling a buoyant sentiment.

Large open interest holders (designated by the CFTC as entities holding 25 or more contracts) reached new weekly records throughout December, indicating growing client interest in regulated solutions to manage ether risk.

Ether-bitcoin ratio

The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures ether’s performance relative to bitcoin and shows the number of bitcoin needed to buy one ether, reached its lowest level since launch on Nov 20 of 0.032857, which may be its bottom as we see improved regulatory outlook and an increase in institutional adoption.

What’s behind ether’s rebound

1. Ether ETFs outperform bitcoin ETFs

U.S. spot ETH ETFs have received a cumulative $577 million in net inflows since their July 2024 launch, an overall success among the broad ETF universe. Between November 25 and November 29, spot ether ETFs even surpassed the daily inflows of bitcoin ETFs, with ether ETFs experiencing a net inflow of $467 million (including net inflows of $428 million in a single day), marking a shift in investor sentiment.

The approval of both bitcoin and ether ETFs represents a major milestone in the mainstream adoption of digital assets. Looking ahead, the interest of institutional investors could rise even further if regulatory approval allows asset managers to incorporate Ethereum staking yields into ETFs.

2. Alt Season

After months of ether underperforming bitcoin, traders may now see the ETH/BTC ratio’s lower level as an opportunity with a potential gradual rotation from BTC to ETH and other alt coins.

Typically, bitcoin leads the rally, then consolidates as ether and other alt coins catch up. This has been true this cycle where bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 61.7% in October to 57.4% in November and to 56.5% in December, suggesting that altcoins may have begun gaining momentum for a potential alt season.

3. Staking yields

Ether investors can generate extra returns on top of their holdings by staking or locking their coins in the network in return for rewards. As of the time of writing, 28% of ether’s supply is locked in staking contracts with the annualized reward rate averaging 3%. Under a new administration, together with anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continued upgrades to the blockchain, there could be an uptick in ETH’s staking yield.

4. DeFi, smart contracts, DAPPS and NFTs

Ethereum’s value proposition extends beyond being a digital currency, as it remains the dominant blockchain for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (DAPPS), smart contract platforms, NFT (non-fungible token) tokenized assets and Web3 applications.

The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi projects has grown over the past few weeks, reaching $69.4 billion, according to DefiLlama. The surge suggests rising confidence in Ethereum as a platform for financial innovation.

5. Ether upgrades

On March 24, Ethereum implemented the Dencun upgrade, which reduced transaction costs for Layer 2’s and increased the Transactions per Second (TPS) at which they could post to the Layer 1. The adoption of Layer 2’s has shifted noticeably over the last year. In addition, the Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, is one of the largest hard forks ever in terms of the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) count. It aims to improve protocol efficiency, enhance the user experience and expand data capacity, as well as pave the way for future scalability enhancements.

Conclusion

All eyes are on what the Trump administration will bring and the implications for the entire crypto market. The growing interest of institutions in ether ETFs could signify a diversification of institutional portfolios, which were once largely focused on bitcoin. The possibility of staking rewards and ether’s central role in DeFi and NFT innovations in 2025 may bring even more demand for ether.

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Bitcoin Cash Surges 5%, Chalks Out Bullish Golden Cross Against BTC

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Bitcoin’s BTC offshoot bitcoin cash BCH chalked out impressive gains in the past 24 hours, bucking the weakness in BTC and the broader market.

BCH has gained over 5% from $491.25 to $516 in 24 hours, with trading volume tripling at one point as over 120,000 BCH changed hands. Prices hit a high of $528 at one point, the level last seen on Dec. 18, according to CoinDesk data.

While a high-volume rally is said to be sustainable, gains are not backed by improvement in onchain fundamentals. According to CoinDesk’s AI research, fundamentals for the Bitcoin Cash network recently hit six-year lows in daily active addresses. Per on-chain data, the network is experiencing a «critical demand deficit,» suggesting the recent price action is driven more by speculation than actual network usage or adoption.

Key AI insights

  • In the last 24 hours from June 30, 13:00 to July 1, 12:00, BCH exhibited a significant bullish trend, climbing from $491.25 to $519.65, representing a 5.8% gain.
  • The price range during this period was $37.80 (7.7%), with BCH reaching a peak of $527.37 at 03:00 on July 1 following exceptional volume support.
  • Key resistance formed around $527 with multiple tests, while support was established at $519-$520, suggesting continued bullish momentum despite the minor pullback.
  • Over 120,000 BCH changed hands at 01:00—nearly triple the 24-hour average volume, indicating strong buyer interest.
  • In the last 60 minutes from 1 July 11:30 to 12:29, BCH experienced significant volatility, initially climbing 0.55% from $519.67 to $522.55 by 11:57, before sharply declining 0.71% to close at $518.85.

BCH/BTC chalks out golden cross

The Binance-listed bitcoin cash-bitcoin (BCH/BTC) pair, which tracks the ratio between the prices of BCH and BTC, has risen nearly 20% in four weeks, hitting a six-month high of 0.0049, according to data source TradingView.

BCH’s outperformance is gathering momentum as evidenced by the bullish golden crossover of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA.

The pattern indicates that short-term momentum is now outperforming the broader trend, with the potential to evolve into a significant bull market.

BCH/BTC's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

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Bitcoin Layer-2 Botanix Mainnet Debuts, Cuts Block Times to 5 Seconds

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The mainnet of Botanix, a network designed to bring Ethereum-equivalent utility to the Bitcoin ecosystem, has gone live, slashing the time it takes to add new blocks to five seconds from 10 minutes.

The network is compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), the software that powers the Ethereum blockchain, allowing Ethereum-based applications and smart contracts to be copied and pasted onto Bitcoin, developer Botanix Labs said in an email.

Botanix is one of several projects attempting to scale the Bitcoin blockchain and make it a more conducive venue for decentralized finance (DeFi) by enhancing its utility and programmability.

Others include Rootstock, Stacks and BOB («Build on Bitcoin»), which have all adopted the BitVM computing paradigm that can make complex computations verifiable on Bitcoin, paving the way for smart-contract provision, similar to Ethereum’s.

The expansion of Bitcoin’s utility would allow developers to take advantage of the value held in BTC, which dwarfs that of all other digital assets.

«Fully decentralized» BTCFi

Botanix Labs also emphasized its decentralized governance structure. The mainnet launch coincides with its transition to being operated by a foundation of 16 node operators. Botanix said it expects the number to grow beyond 100 in 2026.

The founding federation includes some of the biggest names in cryptocurrency, including as Mike Novogratz’s financial services firm Galaxy Digital and crypto custody specialist Fireblocks.

«If we want a world that runs on Bitcoin, we have to build systems that honor its core principles of self-custody, open participation and global fault tolerance,” Botanix Labs CEO Willem Schroé said. “Too many Bitcoiners have been burned by centralized platforms, which is why Botanix is fully decentralized at launch. No single party, including us, can touch a user’s Bitcoin.»

Several products that will form the basis of Botanix’s Bitcoin DeFi (BTCFi) offering also debuted in conjunction the mainnet launch. These include BTC-backed stablecoin Palladium and decentralized exchange Bitzy.

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South Korean Exchange Upbit to Work on Won Stablecoin With Naver Pay: Report

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South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit is working with payments company Naver Pay to promote a won (KRW) stablecoin initiative, KBS reported, citing an unidentified official from Dunamu, Upbit’s parent company.

The two companies are pursing a payments business based on the stablecoin, the official said, although details remain sparse. A stablecoin is a crypto token whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar or gold.

«We will specify the scope and methods of cooperation as soon as the relevant system is established,» the official told KBS.

Korea’s crypto-friendly president, elected at the beginning of June, has said he supports a «won-based stablecoin market,» a stance that earlier this week spurred the Bank of Korea to halt plans to roll out a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

A KRW stablecoin is likely to be an important event for local crypto traders, who have grappled with restrictions around moving KRW in and out of the country. That’s led to a large spread and arbitrage opportunities, the trade that pocketed FTX founder Sam Bankman Fried his first notable wealth.

The spread between South Korean and U.S. exchanges has often been labeled as the «kimchi premium.» The roll out of a KRW stablecoin, as long as it is tradable on-chain, would mean that traders can simply swap that stablecoin for USDT or USDC, bypassing fiat restrictions in the region and essentially ironing out any significant spreads in price.

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