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What the Collapse of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF Cash-and-Carry Trade Means for Investors

Over the past 30 days a net $180 million has flowed out of U.S. spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, among the highest rates of withdrawals since they started trading at the beginning of 2024.
The ETFs have disappointed in 2025, with sluggish inflows largely driven by bitcoin’s weak price performance, which is down roughly 10%. While there has been a brief uptick over the past five days — bringing in some $700 million in net inflows — total net inflows since startup now stand at $36.1 billion, according to Farside data.
There are two main drivers for the past month’s exit: heightened volatility in the price of bitcoin and the unwinding of what’s known as the basis trade.
The bitcoin price has been particularly volatile this year, shooting up to a record $109,000 in January at the start of President Donald Trump’s administration in anticipation of a crypto-friendly regulatory environment and then tumbling to as low as $76,000 at the beginning of March on concerns related to Trump’s tariff-based trade policy.
Retail investors tend to sell during periods of heightened volatility, reacting emotionally as they would with any risk asset.
As for institutions, they are unwinding the basis — or cash-and-carry — trade, which is a strategy that involves taking a long position in the ETF while simultaneously shorting CME bitcoin futures. A short is a bet that the price will drop, and the position is delta neutral trade that capitalizes on the futures pricing trading at a premium to spot.
A delta neutral trade offsets price movements in the underlying asset by balancing positions, minimizing directional risk and maintaining market neutrality.
Currently, this arbitrage yields only around 2%, among the least since the ETFs were first approved. With U.S. Treasuries, among the safest investments available, offering higher yields, many investors are opting for the lower-risk alternative.
ETF inflows and outflows often signal market turning points. When outflows become particularly aggressive, they tend to coincide with local bottoms in bitcoin’s price, especially when viewed on a 30-day moving average. This pattern was observed recently when bitcoin hit its low in March, as well as during similar pullbacks in August 2024 and April 2024.
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Ether Surges 8%, Bitcoin Nears $106K as Crypto Bulls Take Charge

Crypto markets extended their climb with ether (ETH) jumping 8% and bitcoin (BTC) inching back toward the $106,000 mark in the past 24 hours, despite broader risk-off sentiment in equities and gold.
The resilience is in contrast to Friday’s surprise credit downgrade of the U.S. by Moody’s, which cited persistent fiscal deficits and political gridlock. Yet while equities sagged and gold extended its recent decline, falling nearly 7% from May highs, bitcoin held ground and even rallied briefly to $107,000 late Sunday before retracing.
“Bitcoin’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s downgrade reinforces its positioning as a legitimate store of value,” QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast late Monday.
The firm pointed to consistent inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional demand as catalysts, even as derivatives markets saw some leveraged long liquidations.
Ether was among the standout movers, surging past $2,900 in a strong follow-through move from last week’s breakout. The token’s recent strength has been tied to renewed interest in Ethereum staking flows and positive sentiment following the Pectra upgrade — though no new headline catalyst emerged on Monday.
Solana’s SOL, XRP, BNB Chain’s BNB and dogecoin (DOGE) rose between 2-4%, with the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) adding just under 2% in the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Aave’s AAVE tokens soared over 25% in the past 24 hours, though the move appeared largely speculative. No protocol-level announcement or governance proposal was immediately tied to the jump. The token is still down over 60% from its 2021 highs.
Traders say the decoupling between bitcoin and traditional “hard assets” like gold is worth watching.
“Unlike in previous months where BTC and gold went up in unison, bitcoin has been rising against a drop in spot gold, which is also reflected in ETF flows,” Augustine Fan of SignalPlus said in a message to CoinDesk.
“Gold ETFs saw a notable drop in flows against a small rise in BTC ETFs, with a similar pattern in gold vs BTC futures on CME. We should assume more of these micro-correlation breaks and relative value opportunities to take hold,” Fan ended.
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Nasdaq-Listed DigiAsia Plans to Raise $100M for Bitcoin Buys

DigiAsia Corp (FAAS) plans to raise up to $100 million to seed a bitcoin treasury reserve (BTC), joining a growing list of publicly traded companies looking to diversify their corporate balance sheets with bitcoin.
The announcement on Monday (which emphasized plans rather than executed actions) helped push DigiAsia’s shares up 91% during regular trading to 36 cents, before pulling back 22% after hours. The stock is still down more than 50% year-to-date.
The company said its board had approved a strategy to allocate up to 50% of future net profits toward BTC purchases and was “actively exploring” a capital raise of up to $100 million, according to a press release.
It also plans to pursue yield-generating strategies on its bitcoin holdings, including institutional lending and staking through regulated partners.
“We believe bitcoin represents a compelling long-term investment and a foundational layer for modern treasury diversification,” said Prashant Gokarn, Co-CEO of DigiAsia, in the release.
The firm added that it was evaluating financing methods such as convertible notes and crypto-linked instruments to support the initiative.
In an April update, DigiAsia reported $101 million in revenue for 2024, with projected earnings before interest and taxes of $12 million this year. Whether DigiAsia follows through on its BTC purchases remains to be seen. But the signal alone has been enough to give the fintech a short-term boost on Wall Street.
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XRP Futures Rack Up $1.5M Trading Volumes on CME Debut

XRP futures contracts began trading on CME Group’s derivatives platform on May 19, recording at least $1.5 million in trading volume during the first session, a modest but notable debut for the major token.
CME data shows 4 standard contracts (each representing 50,000 XRP) traded on day one, totaling around $480,000 in notional volume at an average price of $2.40. The majority of activity came from 106 micro contracts (2,500 XRP each), accounting for over $1 million in additional volume.
The contracts are cash-settled and benchmarked to the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which is published daily at 4:00 P.M. London time. CME’s dual contract structure is designed to attract both institutional players and smaller participants, offering flexibility for various hedging and trading strategies.
«The launch of regulated XRP Futures on @CMEGroup marks a key institutional milestone for XRP,» Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on X on Monday. He added that Hidden Road executed the first block trade.
The listing follows the CFTC’s classification of XRP as a commodity, a regulatory green light that cleared the path for CME to offer these products.
Analysts say the debut could also strengthen the case for a spot XRP ETF, with ETF Store president Nate Geraci saying such a product is “only a matter of time.”
While early volumes may appear modest, XRP’s inclusion on CME widens market dynamics for the major token in terms of price discovery, similar to how price-action on BTC and ETH futures is impacted when the U.S. market opens.
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