XRP jumped sharply in Monday’s session, climbing from $2.83 to $2.88 as a breakout push briefly tested $2.92 on six-fold average volume. Bulls held firm above $2.86 support, but repeated rejection at $2.90–$2.92 capped upside momentum. With Fed rate cut bets near 100% ahead of the September 17 meeting, institutional inflows remain strong — leaving the token consolidating just under critical resistance.

News Background

• Fed rate cut expectations surged, with futures markets pricing a 99% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting.
• Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions stoked volatility and pushed risk flows into crypto.
• Market analyst Dom flagged +10M XRP net buy pressure in 15 minutes during the breakout window.
• Technical community split: bearish divergence flagged on weekly charts vs. bullish breakout projections toward $4.50 targets.

Price Action Summary

• XRP advanced 3% in the September 7–8 window, trading a $0.10 range between $2.83–$2.92.
• Breakout sequence at 14:00 (Sept 7) lifted price from $2.85 to $2.92 on 231.25M volume — 6x the 24h average.
• Bulls defended $2.86 support across multiple retests.
• Resistance solidified at $2.90–$2.92, where upside attempts failed.
• Final hour pullback saw XRP slide 1% from $2.88 to $2.87, with a sharp 2.1M volume spike at 02:20 capping the rally.

Technical Analysis

• Trading range: $0.10 (4% volatility) between $2.83–$2.92.
• Support: $2.86 remains the key floor; repeated defense shows accumulation.
• Resistance: $2.90–$2.92 has capped rallies across multiple tests.
• Indicators: RSI mid-50s = neutral-to-bullish bias.
• MACD histogram converging toward bullish crossover, confirming accumulation trend.
• Pattern: Descending triangle consolidation under $3.00; breakout above $3.30 could extend targets to $4.00–$4.50.

What Traders Are Watching

Whether XRP can post sustained closes above $2.90 remains the immediate focus. A confirmed break above this resistance could open room toward $3.00–$3.30, while repeated failures may reinforce the ceiling and invite renewed selling pressure.

• The Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting looms large, with markets pricing near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut. Any surprise in rate path guidance will directly affect dollar liquidity, which traders see as a key driver for near-term crypto flows.

• Whale inflows remain closely tracked, with reports of 340 million XRP accumulated in recent weeks. Continued large-scale buying could support the consolidation floor, while a slowdown in accumulation would weaken bullish conviction.

• The SEC’s October rulings on spot XRP ETF applications are the longer-term catalyst. Approval could trigger structural inflows from institutional vehicles, while delays or rejections may dampen sentiment and cap momentum around the $3.00 level.