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What Happened to Bitcoin’s Santa Rally?

As 2024 draws to a close, bitcoin (BTC) is underperforming, counter to its historical performance in a year-end «Santa rally.»
The largest cryptocurrency generally adds about 2.8% in the 51st week, this week it’s on course to slide 11%. And, while it’s tended to gain 3% in week 52, in five of the past six years the BTC price has dropped. So there’s not much hope this time around either.
The exact timing for what’s considered a Santa rally varies, but it’s clearly as December nears January and perhaps a few days either side.
The trend extends to the whole quarter too. The fourth quarter tends to be one of bitcoin’s strongest, but this year it’s underperforming. Since 2013, the BTC price has risen an average of 85% in the last three months of the year, Coinglass data show. In 2024, it’s less than 50%.
This current drawdown is reminiscent of the start of 2021, admittedly a bit later than Santa would be popping down the chimney.
On Jan. 8, 2021, bitcoin was around $40,000. By Jan. 27, the price had dropped to $30,000, a 25% slide and somewhat larger than this current 15% drawdown.
However, that drawdown was in the middle of a bull run that started from around $10,000 in December 2020 and ended in November 2021 at $70,000. The similarities are that the realized price, the average on-chain cost for all tokens in circulation, continues to drive higher, meaning investors, on average, are buying coins at higher prices.
Meanwhile, the price stays ahead of the short-term holder’s realized price, reflecting the average on-chain acquisition price for coins that were moved within the last 155 days.
From December 2020 to April 2021, bitcoin stayed above the short-term holder’s realized price (STH RP) and used this level as support; typically, in bull markets, bitcoin uses this price level as support. The current STH RP is $84,000, which would suggest the bull market is still intact as long as bitcoin stays above this key level.
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Ethereum Surges After Holding $2,477, Fueled by Very Heavy Trading Volume

Global economic tensions and trade disputes continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with ETH showing resilience despite broader market uncertainty.
The second-largest cryptocurrency is currently navigating a critical technical zone between $2,500-$2,530, which analysts identify as immediate resistance that must be overcome for continued upward movement.
Institutional interest remains strong, with spot Ethereum ETFs recording consecutive days of positive inflows, signaling growing confidence from larger investors despite the recent volatility.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- 24-hour ETH price action revealed a substantial 3.5% range ($99.85).
- Sharp sell-off during midnight hour saw price plummet to $2,477.40, establishing a key support zone.
- Extraordinary volume (291,395 units, nearly 3x average) confirmed the significance of the support level.
- Buyers stepped in at the $2,467-$2,480 support band, confirmed by high-volume accumulation during the 08:00-09:00 period.
- Recent price action shows bullish momentum with ETH reclaiming the $2,515 level.
- Potential higher low pattern suggests the correction may have found its bottom.
- $2,520-$2,530 area remains the immediate resistance to overcome for continued upward movement.
- Significant bullish surge at 13:35 saw price jump from $2,515.85 to $2,521.79, accompanied by exceptional volume (5,839 units).
- Sharp reversal occurred at 14:00, with price dropping 5.07 points to $2,508.02 on heavy volume (4,043 units).
- Hourly range of 14.46 points ($2,508.02-$2,522.48) demonstrates market indecision.
External References
- «Ethereum Holds Above Key Prices – Data Points To $2,900 Level As Bullish Trigger«, NewsBTC, published May 24, 2025.
- «Ethereum Forms Inverse H&S – Bulls Eye Breakout Above $2,700 Level«, Bitcoinist, published May 25, 2025.
- «Ethereum Price Analysis: Is ETH Primed for a ‘Healthy’ Correction?«, CryptoPotato, published May 25, 2025.
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XRP Plunges Below $2.30 Amid Heavy Selling Pressure

Global economic tensions are weighing heavily on cryptocurrency markets as XRP experiences a significant correction amid heavy selling pressure.
The recent announcement of potential 50% tariffs on European Union imports by the US government has triggered widespread market uncertainty, with XRP falling alongside most major cryptocurrencies despite Bitcoin recently reaching new all-time highs.
Technical analysts point to critical support at the $2.25-$2.26 range, with market watchers warning that a break below this level could trigger deeper corrections toward the $1.55-$1.90 zone.
Meanwhile, institutional interest remains strong with Volatility Shares launching an XRP futures ETF and leveraged ETF inflows surging despite the price dip, suggesting Wall Street continues accumulating positions during market weakness.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- XRP underwent a notable 3.46% correction over the 24-hour period, with price declining from $2.361 to $2.303, creating an overall range of $0.084 (3.57%).
- The most significant price action occurred during the midnight hour (00:00), when XRP plummeted to $2.297 on exceptionally high volume (37.1M), establishing a strong volume-based support zone.
- A secondary sell-off at 08:00 saw price touch the period low of $2.280 with the highest volume spike (39.9M), confirming a double-bottom formation.
- In the last hour, XRP experienced significant volatility with a recovery attempt following the earlier correction.
- After reaching a low of $2.297 at 13:11, price formed a base around $2.298 before staging a substantial rally beginning at 13:27, peaking at $2.307 at 13:36-13:39 with exceptionally high volume (627K-480K).
- This bullish momentum created a clear resistance zone at $2.307, which was tested multiple times.
- The final 15 minutes saw profit-taking pressure emerge, with price retracing to $2.300, establishing a short-term support level that aligns with the psychological $2.30 threshold.
External References
- «XRP Price Watch: Consolidation or Collapse? Market Holds Breath Near $2.35«, Bitcoin.com News, published May 24, 2025.
- «XRP Price Prediction For May 25«, CoinPedia, published May 25, 2025.
- «XRP Risks Fall To $1.55 If This Support Level Fails – Analyst«, NewsBTC, published May 25, 2025.
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Bitcoin Drops Below $107.5K as Trump Tariff Threat Triggers Crypto Sell-Off

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has established strong volume-based resistance near $108,300, with support forming in the $106,700-$107,000 zone.
The correction accelerated with a notable price surge from $107,373 to $107,671 between 13:06-13:36, followed by a sharp reversal.
Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is now trading within a compression zone, trapped between two major fair value gaps that will determine the upcoming market direction.
If bulls reclaim the $109K to $110K area, price could push toward resistance beyond $112K, while a break below $107,000 might test liquidity around $106K.
Technical Analysis Breakdown
- The decline accelerated during the 22:00-23:00 hour on May 24th with exceptionally high volume (16,335 BTC), establishing a strong volume-based resistance near $108,300.
- Support has formed in the $106,700-$107,000 zone where buyers emerged during the 09:00-10:00 period on May 25th, though recovery attempts have been modest with price consolidating around $107,500.
- The overall technical structure suggests a short-term bearish trend with potential for further consolidation before directional clarity emerges.
- Bitcoin experienced significant volatility with a notable price surge from $107,373 to $107,671 between 13:06-13:36, followed by a sharp reversal that saw prices decline to $107,393 by 14:00.
- The most substantial price movement occurred during the 13:35 minute candle where BTC jumped nearly $150 with exceptionally high volume (148.76 BTC), establishing temporary resistance around $107,630.
- Support formed near $107,400 where buyers emerged during the final minutes of the period, though the overall technical structure suggests continued consolidation within the broader correction from the $109,239 high.
External References
- «Bitcoin Price Prediction for May 25: Will Bulls Defend $108K or Is a Deeper Drop Ahead?«, Coin Edition, published May 24, 2025.
- «Why is Bitcoin Price Dropping Now? Will BTC Price Go Down to $100K?«, CoinPedia, published May 24, 2025.
- «Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Displays Signs of Weakness Following New All-Time High«, CryptoPotato, published May 25, 2025.
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