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What Bitcoin’s Velocity Says About Its Future

Bitcoin’s on-chain velocity—how often coins move—is at decade lows. To some, that’s a red flag: has Bitcoin lost momentum? Is it still being used?
In fact, falling velocity may be the clearest signal yet that Bitcoin is maturing, not stagnating. Instead of circulating like cash, Bitcoin is increasingly being held like gold.
A Shift in Function
In traditional economics, velocity refers to how often money changes hands; it’s a proxy for economic activity. For Bitcoin, it tracks how frequently BTC is transacted on-chain. In Bitcoin’s early days, coins moved frequently as traders, early adopters, and enthusiasts tested its use cases. During major bull runs, like those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, transaction activity spiked, with BTC flowing quickly between wallets and exchanges.
Today, that has changed. More than 70% of BTC hasn’t moved in over a year. Transactional churn has slowed. At face value, this could seem like declining usage. But it reflects something else: conviction. Bitcoin is being treated as a long-term asset, not just a short-term currency. And that shift is driven largely by institutions.
Institutional Adoption Locks Up Supply
Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional holdings have soared. As of mid-2025, spot ETFs hold over 1.298 million BTC, approximately 6.2% of total circulating supply. When including corporate treasuries, private companies, and investment funds, total institutional holdings approach 2.55 million BTC around 12.8% of all Bitcoin in circulation. These assets remain largely static, stored in cold wallets as part of long-term strategies. Firms like Strategy and Tesla are not spending their Bitcoin; they’re holding it as a strategic reserve.
That’s bullish for scarcity and price. But it also lowers velocity: fewer coins circulating, fewer transactions happening on-chain.
Off-Chain Usage Is Rising and Harder to See
It’s important to note that on-chain velocity doesn’t capture all of Bitcoin’s economic activity.
On-chain velocity only tells part of the story. Increasingly, Bitcoin’s real economic activity is happening off the base layer, and outside traditional measurements.
Take the Lightning Network, THE Bitcoin’s Layer-2 scaling solution which enables fast, low-cost payments that bypass the main chain entirely. From streaming micropayments to cross-border remittances, Lightning makes bitcoin usable in everyday scenarios, but its transactions don’t appear in velocity metrics. As of mid-2025, public Lightning capacity surpassed 5,000 BTC, reflecting a nearly 400% increase since 2020. Private channel growth and institutional experimentation suggest the real number is much higher.
Similarly, Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) is enabling BTC to circulate across Ethereum and other chains, fueling DeFi protocols and tokenized finance. In the first half of 2025 alone, WBTC supply grew by 34%, a clear signal that bitcoin is being deployed, not dormant.
And then there’s custody: institutional wallets, ETF cold storage, and multisig treasury tools allow firms to hold BTC securely, but often without moving it. These coins may be economically significant, yet they contribute nothing to on-chain velocity.
In short, Bitcoin is likely more active than it appears, it’s just happening outside traditional velocity metrics. Its utility is shifting to new layers and platforms- payment rails, smart contract systems, yield strategies—none of which register in traditional velocity models. As Bitcoin evolves into a multi-layer monetary system, we may need new ways to measure its momentum. Falling on-chain velocity doesn’t necessarily mean usage is slowing. In fact, it might just mean we’re looking in the wrong place.
The Trade-Off Behind Low Velocity
While slow velocity reflects conviction and long-term holding, it also presents a challenge. Fewer on-chain transactions mean fewer fees for miners: a growing concern after the 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half. Bitcoin’s long-term security model depends on a healthy fee market, which in turn relies on consistent economic activity.
There’s also the question of perception. A network where coins rarely move can start to resemble a static vault rather than a dynamic marketplace. That may strengthen the “digital gold” thesis but weakens the vision of bitcoin as usable money.
This is the core design tension: Bitcoin aims to be both a store of value (digital gold) and a medium of exchange (peer to peer cash) . But those roles don’t always align. Velocity is the measure of that push and pull, this ongoing struggle between preservation and utility, and how Bitcoin navigates it will shape not just usage patterns, but its role in the broader financial system.
A Sign of Maturity
In the end, falling velocity doesn’t mean Bitcoin is being used less. It means it’s being used differently. As Bitcoin gains value, people are more inclined to save it than spend it. As adoption grows, infrastructure moves off-chain. And as institutions enter, their strategies center on preservation, not circulation. The Bitcoin network is evolving. Velocity isn’t vanishing; it’s going silent, reshaped by a changing user base and new layers of economic activity.
If velocity ticks up again, it could mark a resurgence of transactional use; more spending, more movement, more retail involvement. If it stays low, it suggests Bitcoin’s role as macro collateral is taking firm root. Either way, velocity offers a window into Bitcoin’s future. Not as a coin to spend, but as an asset to build on.
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XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price

Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.
Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.
Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.
Technical Indicators
- XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
- Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
- Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
- Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
- Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
- Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
- Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff

Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.
Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.
Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.
The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.
Technical Indicators Summary
- Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
- Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
- The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
- Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
- Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Dogecoin Inches Closer to Wall Street With First Meme Coin ETF

The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) built around a meme coin could hit the market this week, after multiple delays and much speculation.
The DOGE ETF — formally called the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) — was originally slated to debut last week, alongside a handful of politically themed and crypto-related ETFs. Those included funds tied to Bonk (BONK), XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and even a Trump-themed fund. But DOJE’s debut never materialized.
Now, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe Wednesday is the most likely launch date, though they caution nothing is certain.
“It’s more likely than not,” Seyffart said. “That seems like the base case.”
Ahead of the introduction of the ETF, DOGE has been among the top performers over the past month, ahead 15% even including a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 horus.
If launched, DOJE would mark a milestone as the first U.S. ETF to focus on a meme coin — cryptocurrencies that generally lack utility or a clear economic purpose. These include tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bonk, which often surge in popularity thanks to internet culture, celebrity endorsements and speculative trading.
Balchunas described DOJE’s significance in a post on X: “First-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose.”
DOJE is not a spot ETF. That means it won’t hold DOGE directly. Instead, the fund will use a Cayman Islands-based subsidiary to gain exposure through futures and other derivatives. This approach sidesteps the need for physical custody of the coin while still offering traders a way to bet on its performance within a traditional brokerage account.
The ETF was approved earlier this month under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which is typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs. That sets it apart from the wave of bitcoin ETFs that received green lights under the Securities Act of 1933, a framework used for commodity-based and asset-backed products. In short, DOJE is structured more like a mutual fund than a commodity trust.
More direct exposure may be coming soon. Several firms have filed applications to launch spot DOGE ETFs, which would hold the meme coin itself rather than derivatives. These applications are still under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has grown more comfortable with crypto ETFs since approving a slate of bitcoin products in early 2024.
The broader crypto market has shown that investor demand can outweigh fundamental critiques. Meme coins have long drawn skepticism for having no underlying value or use case, but that hasn’t kept them from drawing billions in speculative capital.
Seyffart said the ETF market is likely to follow the same path. “There’s going to be a bunch of products like this, whether you love it or need it, they’re going to be coming to market,” he said.
He added that many existing financial products serve no deeper purpose than providing a vehicle for short-term bets. “There’s plenty of products out there that are just being used as gambling or short-term trading,” he said. “So if there’s an audience for this in the crypto world, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this finds an audience in the ETF and TradFi world.”
Whether the DOJE ETF opens the door to more meme coin funds — or just proves the concept is viable — may depend on how the market responds this week. Either way, it signals a new phase in the merging of internet culture and traditional finance.
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