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U.S. Treasury Market Most Volatile in 4 Months May Slow Any Bitcoin Price Recovery After CPI

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The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing its highest volatility in four months, potentially jeopardizing an expected bitcoin (BTC) price recovery.

U.S. inflation data for February came in softer-than-expected, strengthening the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The reading encouraged some analysts to forecast a bitcoin price recovery to $90,000 and higher. It’s currently around $82,000.

«With inflation cooling and recession fears still looming but not worsening, Bitcoin could be on the verge of its next major breakout, pushing past the stubborn sub-$90K range,» Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, said in an email.

Any upswing, however, could unfold slower than expected as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE), which measures the expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasuries market, has risen to 115, the highest since Nov. 6, according to data source TradingView. It has jumped 38% in three weeks.

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which dominate global collateral, securities and finance, negatively impacts leverage and liquidity in financial markets. That often leads to reduced risk-taking in financial markets.

The MOVE index collapsed following the Nov. 4 election, easing financial conditions that likely aided BTC’s surge to as high as $108,000 from $70,000.

The cryptocurrency’s rally peaked in December-January as the MOVE bottomed out.

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21Shares to Liquidate Two Bitcoin and Ether Futures ETFs Amid Market Downturn

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Crypto asset manager 21Shares is set to liquidate two actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to bitcoin and ether futures amid a wider market downturn.

The funds slated for liquidation are the ARK 21Shares Active On-Chain Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ARKC) and the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Ethereum Strategy ETF (ARKY). Investors can trade shares until the market closes on March 27, with liquidation expected to take place “on or around March 28,” according to a press release.

The actively managed ETFs, which have an expense ratio of 1% and 0.93%, respectively, are set to be liquidated as U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.66 billion in outflows so far this month. The outflows come as cryptocurrency prices plunge. Bitcoin is down more than 12.8% year-to-date, while the broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has lost around 24% of its value over the same period.

Shareholders who hold onto their shares until the liquidation date will receive payouts equal to their portion of the fund’s net asset value, the document adds.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Drop to $80K: Crypto Market Analysis, ETF & Trump Impact

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Coinbase Stock Decline Can’t Stop Highly Leveraged Long ETF Rollouts

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Leverage Shares by Themes has launched a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to the Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) stock despite a downturn in the crypto-related shares.

The Leverage Shares 2X Long Coinbase Daily ETF (COIG) is designed to deliver twice the daily return of Coinbase’s stock price, offering traders an amplified exposure to the U.S.’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The ETF, which carries an expense ratio of 0.75%, is listed on Nasdaq, according to a press release.

The launch comes amid a significant cryptocurrency market downturn that saw bitcoin (BTC) drop by around 19% over the last three months, from over $105,000 to now stand at wrought $84,000. COIN shares saw even worse performance, losing nearly 42% of their value during the same period.

The new ETF allows investors to take advantage of Coinbase’s stock performance volatility without directly holding shares.

These types of single-stock leveraged ETFs, for both longs and shorts sides, are typically used for short-term trading due to the high levels of risks associated with daily compounding. The profits and losses for both types of these are amplified when the prices of the underlying stocks move significantly.

Read more: Leveraged ETFs Tied to Strategy See Trading Volume Surge as Bitcoin-HODLer MSTR Teeters on 200-Day Average

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Gold ETFs Inflow Takes Over Bitcoin ETFs Amid Historic Rally

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Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have overtaken bitcoin ETFs in assets under management as investors shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as BTC price tumbled more than 19% over the past three months, while the precious metal climbed 12.5%.

Bitcoin ETFs, which saw significant inflows following their U.S. launch in January last year, have experienced major outflows, losing about $3.8 billion since Feb. 24 of this year, according to Farside Investors data. Meanwhile, gold ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since March 2022 last month, according to the World Gold Council.

These flows have meant that gold ETFs have now “reclaimed the asset crown over bitcoin ETFs,” as Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on social media.

Spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. first surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management in December 2024 as the cryptocurrency market surged after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

Meanwhile, gold has been seeing a significant run. This Friday, it exceeded the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever, with gold futures for April delivery breaking through the same level earlier in the week.

Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have been helping the price of the precious metal rise as demand for a safe haven continues to grow.
Read more: Gold’s Historic Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But the Trend May Reverse

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