Record highs — be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year — are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don’t do a great job of describing price action.

Tracking the «realized price,» or the average price at which bitcoin BTC is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a market-wide cost basis is a more valuable tool for gauging investor profitability and potential inflection points in market sentiment.

The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.

The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.

When bitcoin began its decline from the all-time high of $109,000 in late January, it briefly fell below the 2025 realized price, a historical signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the price reclaimed the cohort’s cost basis.

Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns

Historically, when price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:

• 2024: After the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below the average cost basis before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer, linked to the yen carry trade unwind when bitcoin plunged to $49,000.
• 2023: Price tracked close to the average cost basis during support levels, only briefly breaking below during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.

Realized, not record

When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly after went into a brutal reversal.

In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

Global economic uncertainties are weighing heavily on cryptocurrency markets, with XRP experiencing significant selling pressure after failing to maintain momentum above $2.40.

The digital asset has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on short-term charts, with high-volume selling emerging precisely when testing key resistance levels.

Multiple analysts, including Ali Martinez, warn that losing the critical $2.30 support could trigger a substantial decline toward the $2.00 mark.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• XRP formed a distinct head-and-shoulders pattern after rallying to a peak of $2.411 before declining 3.38% to $2.330.
• Significant resistance established at the $2.40 level with high-volume selling pressure.
• Support at $2.345 was tested multiple times before breaking during the 13:00 hour with volume surging 23% above the 24-hour average.
• Price declined from $2.341 to $2.329 in the last hour of trading, representing a 0.5% drop.
• Significant volume spike occurred at 13:35 when price plummeted from $2.345 to $2.337, accompanied by over 2.1 million in volume.
• Multiple failed attempts to recover above $2.340 between 13:38-13:41 created a lower high pattern.
• Renewed selling pressure emerged at 13:47-13:50, driving XRP to session lows near $2.326 with elevated volume confirming distribution.

External References

• «XRP flashes crash signal with drop to $2 in sight«, Finbold, published May 19, 2025.
• «XRP (XRP) Price Prediction for May 20«, Coin Edition, published May 19, 2025.
• «2 Critical Warnings for Ripple’s (XRP) Price: Details«, CryptoPotato, published May 19, 2025.
• «XRP Price Confirms Bullish Reversal Setup With This Demand Zone«, NewsBTC, published May 20, 2025.

The unit in charge of investigating President Javier Milei’s connection to the LIBRA memecoin has been dissolved after it shared its findings with the public prosecutor’s office.

The Unidad de Tareas de Investigación (UTI) has accomplished its objective, stated a decree issued by the ministry of justice on Monday. The document was signed by Milei and Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona.

The unit received assistance from a series of government agencies in the course of its investigation, including the Argentinian central bank and the anti-corruption office.

In February Milei tweeted about LIBRA, a Solana-based memecoin; the coin’s market capitalization rose to $4.5 billion before tanking more than 80% in a couple of hours.

LIBRA’s co-creator, Hayden Davies, had previously claimed to that he could «control» Milei because of payments he’d made to the President’s sister, Karina, herself an important figure of Milei’s government.