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Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Risks Falling Below $90K: Godbole

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) much-anticipated breakout above $100,000 remains out of reach, with prices retreating to $94,500 overnight. Key indicators point to further declines, potentially to levels below $90,000.

The first indicator is the 25-delta risk reversal, which measures the volatility premium of out-of-the-money calls used to bet on price rallies relative to OTM put options offering downside protection.

On Deribit, calls expiring this Friday now trade at a cheaper valuation to puts, resulting in a negative risk reversal, according to data source Amberdata. The first negative reading in at least a month indicates a bias for protective puts.

Perhaps sophisticated traders are prepping for an extension of Monday’s price slide. On Monday, traders sold call spreads and bought put options tied to BTC on the over-the-counter liquidity network Paradigm.

The 24-hour change in the 25RR (risk reversal) shows the call bias has moderated across timeframes. Last week, calls expiring in December and January traded at a bigger premium relative to puts than what we see now.

Coinbase premium evaporates

The stateside demand for BTC, a leading source of bullish pressure for the cryptocurrency during the recent post-U.S. election price surge from $70,000 to $99,500, has weakened. That’s evident from the renewed discount in BTC prices on Nasdaq-listed Coinbase compared to offshore giant Binance.

The negative flip in the so-called Coinbase premium indicator follows the bearish order book skew, indicating vulnerability to potential negative news.

RSI divergence

The relative strength index (RSI) divergence occurs when an asset’s price moves counter to the momentum oscillator.

In BTC’s case, while prices tapped a new high above $99,000 on Friday, the RSI did not, diverging bearishly. The pattern indicates that the bullish momentum has run its course for now and there could be losses ahead.

Intraday charts indicate support between $87,000 and $88,000, meaning an expected deeper decline could find a floor in that range while long-term technical studies continue to lean bullish.

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Sell in May? Bitcoin Tops $107K, Could Hit Record Highs This Summer Say Analysts

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«Sell in May and go away,» goes the Wall Street adage for equity markets every summer. For bitcoin BTC, though, some analysts say this season could mark a break from tradition.

«As we get into the European summer months, the sense is it’s more likely a case of ‘buy in May and go away’ than any significant headwinds or selling pressure,» said Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent in a market note.

A confluence of positive regulatory developments around digital assets in the U.S. and increasing institutional buying both via exchange-traded funds and spot allocation is poised to push BTC higher in the next months, Howard said.

U.S.-traded spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, pulled in $667 million in net inflows on Monday with BTC pausing just below its January record, underscoring persistent demand, he noted. The vehicles attracted $3.3 billion in May, per SoSoValue. On top of that, there’s been a flurry of companies joining Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) adding bitcoin to their treasury, financed by debt and stock issuances.

«As we edge closer to a $4 trillion market cap for digital assets, we will see BTC cross all-time-highs in the coming weeks,» Howard said. The total crypto market cap currently stands at around $3.3 trillion, per TradingView data.

Historically, summer months have been slow for crypto assets, but macro and political forces are also converging in ways that could disrupt the typical seasonal lull, analysts at crypto analytics firm Kaiko pointed out.

The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision in June will precede Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline for trade partners, both of which could trigger market-wide volatility, the report said.

Bitcoin options markets are already flashing signs of investor anticipation, Kaiko analysts said. Strike prices at $110,000 and $120,000 for the June 27 expiry have drawn heavy volume, suggesting bets on BTC making a record-breaking move, the report noted.

Bitcoin briefly topped $107,000 during the Tuesday session, gaining 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading just 2% below its January record high.

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NYC Mayor Eric Adams Creating Crypto Advisory Council

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NEW YORK — The city of New York is launching a digital assets advisory council to bring fintech jobs into the Big Apple, Mayor Eric Adams announced Tuesday.

New York City is «open for business, he said at the start of a summit hosted at the mayor’s official residence, Gracie Mansion. The council will be composed of individuals from the industry, with a chair to be announced in the coming weeks.

«We want to use technology of tomorrow to better serve New Yorkers today,» Adams said in his opening remarks. «We have experts right here, and they are going to help us navigate solutions that serve our city. We are lucky to have this type of human capital right here in the city of New York.»

The summit, which included a public press conference followed by closed-door roundtables, had participants from both family offices and unicorn startups, said Richard Hecker of Traction and Scale, a logistics firm involved in the event.

Business interests aside, the city will explore putting birth and death records onto a blockchain to help New Yorkers’ next of kin easily access these types of documents, Adams said.

Andrew Durgee, the co-CEO of Republic, which backs other startups financially, noted that his firm remained in New York despite concerns about regulators and other issues, even as other firms left the country.

«Now the first time in 15 years, we’re in this scenario, we have no idea what it’s going to look like,» Durgee said. «You have now all these people, these smart, brilliant people now coming back to the U.S., and they’re looking for a place to land.»

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Apollo’s Tokenized Credit Fund Set for Solana DeFi Debut as RWA Trend Expands

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A tokenized version of a major private credit fund managed by Apollo will arrive on Solana’s SOL decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, bringing traditional financial instruments closer to the fast-growing network.

The launch, orchestrated by lending platform Kamino Finance with support from tokenization specialist Securitize and DeFi risk advisor Steakhouse Financial, aims to make the Apollo’s Diversified Credit Securitize Fund (ACRED) token the first of its kind to be available for on-chain borrowing and leverage on Solana. The token’s debut is pending on completing an audit, Kamino said.

The ACRED token, launched in January, offers exposure to Apollo’s private credit strategies and is issued under Securitize’s regulated token framework. ACRED will also be the first token on Solana using Securitize’s sToken standard, with more assets expected to follow later, Securitize said.

The product underscores a growing appetite in crypto for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. RWAs—traditional instruments such as funds, bonds or real estate—are being brought onto blockchain rails to reduce friction in investing, improve access and transparency, and allow for programmable use in DeFi protocols. In practice, this means investors can use RWAs as collateral to borrow against, yield farming, or plug into automated investment strategies.

«The value of tokenization really comes into play when these assets are integrated into DeFi, and new products and strategies are developed around them,» says Reid Simon, head of DeFi and credit solutions at Securitize.

Despite Solana’s fast-growing DeFi market, RWAs are yet to take off on the chain. According to RWA.xyz, Solana hosts $330 million worth of RWAs, small compared to the network’s nearly $9 billion DeFi market size. It’s also trailing rival layer-1 network Ethereum’s $7 billion real-world asset market. But with large players in tokenization stepping in, backers of the launch see this as a tipping point.

«Solana has experienced explosive consumer growth in recent years, but below the surface we are seeing enormous interest from institutions and asset issuers,» said Marius Ciubotariu, co-founder at Kamino, «Finally, the industry is in a position to not only bring these assets on-chain, but to provide genuine use-cases.»

Through Kamino’s Multiply product, users will be able to leverage ACRED for yield strategies—automatically looping the asset to increase exposure while managing collateral and borrow levels through Solana-native smart contracts. That’s a similar offering to what Gauntlet introduced on Polygon in late April.

«Building on off-chain credit assets in a composable way is the sort of long-term investment we believe can help catalyze further growth of DeFi in Solana,» said adcv, co-founder of Steakhouse Financial.

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