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These Six Charts Explain Why Bitcoin’s Recent Move to Over $100K May Be More Durable Than January’s Run

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Bitcoin BTC is trading above $100,000 again, and investors, prone to recency bias, may be quick to assume that this event will play out like it did in December-January, when the bull momentum faded, with prices quickly falling back into six figures, eventually dropping as low as $75,000.

However, according to the following six charts, the bitcoin market now appears sturdier than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continued move higher.

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10y, 30y yields vs BTC)

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar exchange rate and other factors.

Tighter financial conditions disincentivize risk-taking in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

As of writing, financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear much easier than in January, favoring a sustained move higher in BTC.

BTC vs DXY, 10y and 30y yields. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

At press time, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against major currencies, stood at 99.60, down 9% from highs above 109.00 in January. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.52%, down 30 basis points from the high of 4.8% in January.

The 30-year yield has risen above 5%, revisiting levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.

More dry powder

The combined market capitalization of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record high of $151 billion. That’s nearly 9% higher than the average $139 billion in December-January, according to data source TradingView.

In other words, a greater amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

BTC market cap vs USDT plus USDC market cap. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Bold directional bets

BTC’s run higher from early April lows near $75,000 is characterized by institutions predominantly taking bullish directional bets rather than arbitrage bets.

That’s evident by the booming inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still subdued open interest in the CME BTC futures.

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in the CME bitcoin futures has jumped to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. Still, it remains well below the December high of $22.79 billion.

BTC CME futures open interest & BTC spot ETF inflows. (Velo, Farside Investors, Freeform)

On the contrary, the cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42.7 billion versus $39.8 billion in January, according to data source Farside Investors.

No signs of speculative fervor

Historically, interim and major bitcoin tops, including the December-January one, have been characterized by speculative fervour in the broader market, leading to a sharp rise in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.

There are no such signs now, with the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB well below their January highs.

BTC market cap vs DOGE+SHIB market cap. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

No signs of overheating

The bitcoin perpetual futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, understandably so, considering BTC is trading near record highs.

However, the overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excess leverage build-up or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates hovering well below highs seen in December.

BTC's price vs perpetual funding rates. (CryptoQuant)

The chart shows funding rates, which refer to the cost of holding perpetual futures bets. The positive figure indicates a bias for longs and willingness among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It’s a sign of bullish market sentiment.

Implied volatility suggests calm

The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time, with Deribit’s DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.

The low IV suggests traders are not pricing in the extreme price swings or uncertainty that typically exists in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable uptrend.

BTC's price vs DVOL. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

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Bitcoin Overtakes Amazon as the Fifth Largest Asset, Hitting $2.16T Market Cap

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Bitcoin BTC became the world’s fifth-largest asset after hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday, which pushed its market cap to $2.16 trillion.

Though the crypto’s price consolidated lower after hitting a high of $109,400, its market cap passed Amazon (AMZN), which stands at $2.15 trillion.

Bitcoin is up 16.44% year-to-date while shares of the online retailer are down about 8% over the same period. It is currently trading at $108,954.

(CompaniesMarketCap)

Gold is the largest asset, by far, standing at a $22 trillion market cap, followed by Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) which stand at $3.1 trillion to $3.4 trillion respectively.

As a result of the surge in bitcoin’s price since the win of U.S. President Donald Trump, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recently became the fifth-largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) by inflows this year as it took in roughly $9 billion from investors, according to data from Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

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Chainlink Gains as Exchange Outflows Point to Strong Accumulation

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Chainlink’s price action demonstrates remarkable resilience amid mixed global economic conditions.

The token has established a well-defined rising channel pattern, with technical indicators supporting continued bullish momentum.

After successfully breaking above the 200-day moving average, LINK has maintained its upward trajectory despite short-term resistance.

Exchange outflows remain consistently negative, with $11.27 million worth of LINK exiting exchanges this week following $55.2 million in outflows last week. This pattern of decreasing exchange balances typically signals investor accumulation rather than selling pressure.

Meanwhile, Chainlink’s technology continues gaining traction in the DeFi sector, with recent integrations including JPMorgan, Ondo Finance, and Solana mainnet.

Analysts project LINK could reach $20 in the near term, with longer-term forecasts suggesting potential growth to $50 by 2028 and $100 by 2030 as adoption of its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) expands across the blockchain ecosystem.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • LINK established strong support at $15.60 with high-volume buying emerging at the $15.27-$15.30 zone during the 18-19 hour timeframe on May 20th.
  • A significant volume spike (3.08M) during the 11:00 hour on May 21st coincided with LINK testing the $16.24 resistance level.
  • The overall trend remains bullish with higher lows forming a clear upward channel.
  • LINK demonstrated significant bullish momentum in the last hour, surging from $15.67 to a peak of $15.91, representing a 1.5% gain.
  • A notable volume spike occurred at 13:30, catalyzing a sharp upward movement that established a new support level around $15.75.
  • The price action formed an ascending channel with higher lows, though some profit-taking emerged near the $15.90 resistance level.
  • Final minutes showed consolidation around $15.85, with volume patterns suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.

External References

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Bitcoin Hits New Record High, Surging to $109.4K

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Bitcoin BTC clinched a fresh record price of $109,400, surpassing the peak in January around Donald Trump’s inauguration.

According to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Index, the largest and oldest cryptocurrency hit $109,486 on Wednesday during the early U.S. session. BTC surged more than 46% from its April trough induced by mounting freas over global trade war and U.S. tariffs.

The new all-time high came as spot bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) gobbled up $3.6 billion in net inflows in May, a sign of rejuvenated investor interest. A slew of bitcoin-focused treasury companies, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy and newly-launched firm Twenty One Capital added to the buying spree, helping lift BTC to a new record.

Positive regulatory shifts in the U.S. have further supported the market, lending legitimacy of digital assets as an asset class for investors. The U.S. Senate this week advanced a bill to regulate stablecoins while several states and sovereign nations are moving forward with legislation to create bitcoin reserves.

Analysts suggested that the current rally is more sustainable than previous ones, citing favorable financial conditions, stablecoin flows and lack of speculative fervor observed in earlier peaks, showing signs of a stronger foundation.

Read more: These Six Charts Explain Why Bitcoin’s Recent Move to Over $100K May Be More Durable Than January’s Run

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