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The Risks of Overbuilding Crypto Infrastructure

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The Web3 ecosystem is often regarded as the next infrastructure of the internet. However, nearly 10 years after the release of the Ethereum white paper, we have very few mainstream applications running on that infrastructure. Meanwhile, we continue to see the emergence of new infrastructure building blocks everywhere: L1, L2, and L3 blockchains, rollups, ZK layers, DeFi protocols, and many others. While we might be building the future of the internet with Web3, there is little doubt that we are overbuilding the infrastructure layer. Currently, the ratio between infrastructure and applications in Web3 has no parallels in the history of technology markets.

Why is this happening? Simply because it’s profitable to build infrastructure in Web3.

Web3 defies some of the conventional market adoption patterns in tech infrastructure, creating both a rapid path to profitability and unique risks for its evolution. To explore this thesis further, we must understand how value is typically created in infrastructure technology trends, how Web3 diverges from this norm, and the risks posed by overbuilding infrastructure.

The Infrastructure-Application Value Creation Cycle in Tech Markets

Traditionally, value creation in tech markets fluctuates between the infrastructure and application layers, finding a dynamic balance between the two.

Take the Web1 era as an example. Companies such as Cisco, IBM, and Sun Microsystems powered the infrastructure layer of the internet. But, even during those early days, applications like Netscape and AOL emerged to capture significant value. The Web2 era was driven by cloud infrastructure, which then triggered SaaS and social platforms, catalyzing the creation of new cloud infrastructure.

More recently, trends like generative AI began as an infrastructure play with model builders, but applications such as ChatGPT, NotebookLM, and Perplexity quickly captured momentum. This, in turn, drove the creation of new infrastructure to support a new generation of AI applications — a cycle that is likely to continue for several iterations.

This constant value-creation balance between application and infrastructure layers has been a hallmark of technology markets, making Web3 a notable anomaly. But why is this imbalance so evident in Web3?

The Infrastructure Casino

The main difference between Web3 and its predecessors is the rapid path to capital formation and liquidity in infrastructure projects. In Web3, infrastructure projects typically launch tokens that become tradable on exchanges, providing substantial liquidity for investors, teams, and communities. This contrasts with traditional markets, where investor liquidity is typically realized through company acquisitions or public offerings, both of which usually take considerable time. Most venture capital firms operate on a ten-year investment cycle or longer. While rapid capital formation is one of the benefits of Web3, it often misaligns team incentives, discouraging long-term value creation.

This «infrastructure casino» is a risky pattern in Web3 because it incentivizes builders and investors to prioritize infrastructure projects over applications. After all, who needs applications when L2 tokens can achieve multibillion-dollar valuations in just a few years with minimal usage? This approach presents several challenges, and many of them are subtle and difficult to address.

The Challenges of Overbuilding Web3 Infrastructure

1) Building Without Adoption Feedback

Perhaps the most significant risk of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 is the lack of market feedback from applications built on top of that infrastructure. Applications represent the ultimate expression of consumer and business use cases and regularly guide new use cases in infrastructure. Without application feedback, Web3 risks building infrastructure for “imaginary” use cases that are disconnected from market reality.

2) Extreme Liquidity Fragmentation

The launch of new Web3 infrastructure ecosystems is one of the main contributors to liquidity fragmentation in the space. New blockchains often require billions of dollars to bootstrap liquidity and attract tier 1 DeFi projects to their ecosystems. Over the past few months, the creation of new L1 and L2 blockchains has outpaced the influx of new capital into the market. As a result, capital in Web3 is more fragmented than ever, creating significant adoption challenges.

3) Inevitable, Increasing Complexity

Have you tried using some of the wallets, dApps, and bridges for newer blockchains? The user experience is typically difficult. Tech infrastructure naturally grows more complex and sophisticated over time. Applications built on that infrastructure typically abstract away this complexity for end users. However, in Web3 — where there is a lack of application development — users are left to interact with increasingly complex blockchains, leading to friction in adoption.

4) Limited Developer Communities

If Web3 infrastructure has outpaced capital formation, then the challenge is even greater when it comes to developer communities. dApps are built by developers, and creating new developer communities is always a challenge. Most new Web3 infrastructure projects operate with very limited developer communities because they pull talent from the same existing pool, which is simply not large enough to sustain the vast amount of infrastructure being built.

5) Widening Gap with Web2

A side effect of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 — without app adoption — is the widening adoption gap with Web2. Trends such as generative AI are powering a new generation of Web2 apps and redefining sectors like SaaS and mobile. Instead of tapping into this momentum, the predominant trend in Web3 continues to be building more blockchains.

Ending the Vicious Circle

Launching L1 and L2 blockchains is a profitable business for investors and development teams, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into long-term benefits for the Web3 ecosystem. Web3 is still in its early stages, and while more infrastructure building blocks are certainly needed, most of the industry is currently building infrastructure without market feedback.

That market feedback typically comes from applications using the infrastructure — but such applications are largely absent in Web3. Most usage of Web3 infrastructure comes from other Web3 infrastructure projects. We continue to build infrastructure, launch tokens, and raise capital, but we are effectively flying blind.

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Binance Open Bitcoin Futures Bets Jump By Over $1B as BTC Chalks Out Bearish Candlestick Pattern: Godbole

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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $92,000 during the overnight trade, revisiting levels that have proven resilient multiple times since December. However, the latest move comes with a notable uptick in perpetual futures open interest and price action that indicates seller dominance.

The number of open futures bets or open interest in the BTC/USDT pair trading on Binance rose by roughly 12,000 BTC (worth over $1 billion) as BTC’s price fell from $96,000 to under $92,000, according to data tracked by Coinglass.

An uptick in open interest alongside a price decline is said to represent an influx of bearish short positions. In other words, traders likely opened fresh shorts as the price dropped, perhaps in anticipation of an extended sell-off.

The cumulative volume delta (CVD) across both futures and spot markets on the exchange was already negative and has deepened further with the price drop, indicating that selling pressure has outpaced buying activity.

The CVD measures the net capital flows into the market, where positive and rising figures indicate buyer dominance, while negative values reflect increased selling pressure.

BTC chalks out bearish marubozu candle

Bitcoin dropped 4.86% on Monday with sellers dominating the price action throughout the day.

That’s reflected in the shape of Monday’s candlestick, which features negligible upper and lower shadows and a prominent red body. In other words, opening and closing prices are almost the same, a sign buyers had little say in the price action.

Technical analysts categorize this as a bearish marubozu pattern. The appearance of the bearish candlestick while prices hover below key 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) may embolden sellers, potentially leading to deeper losses.

Support (S) is seen near $89,200, the Jan. 13 low, followed by the 200-day SMA at $81,661. On the flip side, the Feb. 21 high of around $99,520 is the level to beat (R).

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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens

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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.

Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000

Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.

Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.

“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”

Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”

Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.

Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.

The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.

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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years

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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.

«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.

Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.

It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.

Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.

It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.

«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.

After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.

Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court

UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.

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