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The Probability of Iran Blocking Strait of Hormuz Surges to 52% On Polymarket After Trump’s Air Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Facility

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The probability of Iran’s leadership blocking the Strait of Hormuz for shipping has increased following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

At press time, shares of the Yes side of the Polymarket-listed contract «Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30 traded at 40 cents, representing a 40% probability. That’s a notable increase from 14% Saturday. Meanwhile, the odds of the event occurring by the end of the year increased to 52%, up from 33% the previous day.

Approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for around 20% of the world’s oil consumption, according to the Middle East Forum Observer. Therefore, the potential closure of the Hormuz could trigger a sustained oil price shock.

According to JPMorgan’s analysts, shutting the Strait of Hormuz could catapult crude oil prices to an eye-popping $120 to $130 per barrel.

Such a spike in oil prices, coupled with the ongoing trade war, could lead to stagflation – the worst outcome for financial assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Polymarket: Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? (Polymarket)

As of writing, the cryptocurrency market has not shown any signs of panic, with bitcoin BTC continuing to trade above $100,000, per CoinDesk data.

President Donald Trump confirmed airstrikes Saturday evening, saying the attack Obliterated three critical Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, calling «the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.»

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.

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