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Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Spree Has Minimal Impact on Prices, TD Cowen Says

Published

4 недели ago

21 апреля, 2025

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Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.

The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.

A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market

Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.

According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.

“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn’t appear plausible that Strategy’s purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.

Correlation? Not Much.

The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.

Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.

What About Outpacing Miners?

Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.

Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.

“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.

Building Value, Not Hype

While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.

Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.

With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.

“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy’s Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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XRP Price Surges After V-Shaped Recovery, Targets $3.40

Published

10 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

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Global economic tensions and regulatory developments continue to influence XRP’s price action, with the digital asset showing remarkable resilience despite recent volatility.

After experiencing a significant dip to $2.307 on high volume, XRP has established an upward trajectory with a series of higher lows, suggesting continued momentum as it approaches resistance levels.

Technical indicators point to a potential bullish breakout, with multiple analysts highlighting critical support at $2.35-$2.40 that must hold for upward continuation.

Technical Analysis Highlights

Price experienced a 3.76% range ($2.307-$2.396) over 24 hours with a sharp sell-off at 16:00 dropping to $2.307 on high volume (77.9M).
Strong support emerged at $2.32 level with buyers stepping in during high-volume periods, particularly during the 13:00-14:00 recovery.
Asset established upward trajectory, forming higher lows from the bottom, with resistance around $2.39 tested during 07:00 session.
In the last hour, XRP climbed from $2.358 to $2.368, representing a 0.42% gain with notable volume spikes at 01:52 and 01:55.
Price surged past resistance at $2.36 to reach $2.366, later establishing new local highs at $2.369 during 02:03 session on substantial volume (539,987).
Currently maintaining strength above $2.368 support level with decreasing volatility suggesting potential continuation of upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

External References

«XRP price path to $3.40 remains intact — Here is why«, Cointelegraph, published May 16, 2025.
«XRP Price Watch: Bulls Eye $2.60 as Long-Term Trend Holds«, Bitcoin.com News, published May 17, 2025.
«XRP Price Explosion To $5.9: Current Consolidation Won’t Stop XRP From Growing«, NewsBTC, published May 17, 2025.

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SUI Surges After Finding Strong Support at $3.75 Level

Published

10 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

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Global economic tensions and shifting trade policies continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with SUI showing particular resilience.

The asset established a trading range of 4.46% between $3.70 and $3.86, finding strong volume support at the $3.755 level.

A notable bullish momentum emerged with price surging 1.9% on above-average volume, establishing resistance at $3.850.

The formation of higher lows throughout the latter part of the day suggests consolidation above the $3.775 support level.

Technical Analysis Highlights

SUI established a 24-hour trading range of 0.165 (4.46%) between the low of 3.700 and high of 3.862.
Strong volume support emerged at the 3.755 level during hours 17-18, with accumulation exceeding the 24-hour volume average by 45%.
Notable bullish momentum occurred in the 20:00 hour with price surging 7.2 cents (1.9%) on above-average volume.
Resistance established at 3.850 with higher lows forming throughout the latter part of the day.
Decreasing volatility in the final hours suggests consolidation above the 3.775 support level.
Significant buyer interest appeared between 01:27-01:30, forming a strong support zone at 3.756-3.760 with exceptionally high volume (over 300,000 units per minute).
Decisive bullish reversal began at 01:42, establishing a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Breakout above 3.780 occurred at 01:55, followed by consolidation near 3.785 with decreasing volume.

External References

«Sui price up 5.16% intra-day: bullish structure remains strong«, crypto.news, published May 16, 2205.
«SUI Set to Explode, But Don’t Sleep on XRP and Other Altcoins«, CoinPedia, May 16, 2025.

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Dogecoin (DOGE) Whales Accumulate 1 Billion DOGE Amid Critical Support Formation

Published

10 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

admin

Geopolitical tensions and evolving trade policies continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with Dogecoin showing resilience amid broader economic uncertainty.

Despite macroeconomic headwinds, DOGE has maintained support above key moving averages while forming a potential bull flag pattern that could target $0.35 if validated by continued buying pressure.

Technical Analysis Highlights

DOGE experienced significant volatility with a 4.3% range (0.211-0.220) over the past 24 hours, forming a key support zone around 0.212 validated by high volume rebounds at 13:00 and 22:00.
The price action reveals a bullish recovery pattern from the 16:00 low, with resistance emerging at 0.217-0.220.
The 20:00 candle’s strong volume surge above the 24-hour average confirms renewed buying interest, suggesting potential upward momentum if DOGE can maintain its position above the established support level.
In the past hour, DOGE has demonstrated significant bullish momentum, climbing from 0.215 to 0.216 with notable volume spikes at 01:17, 01:21, and 01:54-01:55.
The price established a strong support zone around 0.215 during the early minutes, followed by a decisive breakout at 01:16-01:17 where volume surged over 8 million.
The uptrend continued with higher lows forming a clear ascending pattern, culminating in a new resistance test at 0.216-0.217 range.
The final minutes saw particularly heavy trading activity with volumes exceeding 7 million at 02:01-02:02, confirming strong buyer interest and suggesting potential for further upside movement.

External References