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Stalled Stablecoin Supply Casts Doubt on BTC’s Bullish Recovery as U.S. Inflation Report Looms

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) rapid recovery from below $90,000 since Monday hints at bullish prospects. However, one factor casts doubt on the sustainability of these gains, indicating scope for significant downside volatility if the impending U.S. inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected on Wednesday.

That factor is the supply of major stablecoins, which has stalled, indicating the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. Data tracked by Glassnode shows that the supply of the top four stablecoins by market value – USDT, USDC, BUSD and DAI – has stabilized around $189 billion, representing a 30-day net change of just 0.37%.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with values pegged to an external reference like the U.S. dollar. These tokens are widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases and acted as a safe haven during the 2022 bear market.

The latest slowdown in new liquidity via stablecoins, which suggests a weakened buying environment while heading into the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release, starkly contrasts the expansion of stablecoin liquidity observed during the November-December rally and early last year.

«The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled,» Glassnode said in a Telegram note.

The data due at 13:30 UTC Wednesday is expected to show the cost of living rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching November’s pace. The year-on-year figure is seen printing at 2.9%, up from November’s 2.75. The core figure, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.

An above-forecast headline/core figure will likely bolster recent concerns about the central bank being less aggressive in cutting interest rates than expected. These concerns, bolstered by Friday’s blowout jobs report, were partly responsible for BTC falling below $90,000 on Monday.

The latest drying up of stablecoin liquidity, often touted as dry powder waiting to be deployed for crypto purchases, starkly contrasts the $27.3 billion in inflows registered in November and December that partly greased the BTC bull run from $70,000 to over $108,000.

Meanwhile, a much lesser stablecoin inflow of $14.68 billion was seen during the first quarter of 2024, when prices rose nearly 70% to over $70,000.

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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