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Stalled Stablecoin Supply Casts Doubt on BTC’s Bullish Recovery as U.S. Inflation Report Looms

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) rapid recovery from below $90,000 since Monday hints at bullish prospects. However, one factor casts doubt on the sustainability of these gains, indicating scope for significant downside volatility if the impending U.S. inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected on Wednesday.

That factor is the supply of major stablecoins, which has stalled, indicating the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. Data tracked by Glassnode shows that the supply of the top four stablecoins by market value – USDT, USDC, BUSD and DAI – has stabilized around $189 billion, representing a 30-day net change of just 0.37%.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with values pegged to an external reference like the U.S. dollar. These tokens are widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases and acted as a safe haven during the 2022 bear market.

The latest slowdown in new liquidity via stablecoins, which suggests a weakened buying environment while heading into the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release, starkly contrasts the expansion of stablecoin liquidity observed during the November-December rally and early last year.

«The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled,» Glassnode said in a Telegram note.

The data due at 13:30 UTC Wednesday is expected to show the cost of living rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching November’s pace. The year-on-year figure is seen printing at 2.9%, up from November’s 2.75. The core figure, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.

An above-forecast headline/core figure will likely bolster recent concerns about the central bank being less aggressive in cutting interest rates than expected. These concerns, bolstered by Friday’s blowout jobs report, were partly responsible for BTC falling below $90,000 on Monday.

The latest drying up of stablecoin liquidity, often touted as dry powder waiting to be deployed for crypto purchases, starkly contrasts the $27.3 billion in inflows registered in November and December that partly greased the BTC bull run from $70,000 to over $108,000.

Meanwhile, a much lesser stablecoin inflow of $14.68 billion was seen during the first quarter of 2024, when prices rose nearly 70% to over $70,000.

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Tesla Reports $951M in Crypto Holdings as it Misses Earnings

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Tesla (TSLA) still holds almost $1 billion in bitcoin, according to the automaker’s latest earnings report.

The electric vehicle firm reported digital asset holdings worth $951 million as of March 31, down from $1.076 billion on Dec. 30. Tesla currently holds 11,509 bitcoin in its balance sheet, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.

The change is almost certainly due to bitcoin’s price depreciating between the two quarters. Data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that Tesla did not perform any transactions in the last three months. Arkham marks Tesla’s holdings as being currently worth $1.049 billion.

A new rule from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) requires corporate holders of digital assets to begin marking those assets to market each quarter.

Tesla also reported $19.34 billion in revenue for the first quarter of the year; analysts had expected the carmaker to rake in $21.37 billion.

The TSLA shares were up more than 2% in after-hours trading.

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Bitcoin Tops $91K as Trade Optimism Fuels Crypto Rally But Demand Headwinds Remain

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Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $91,000 on Tuesday, climbing nearly 5% amid renewed investor optimism and fresh hopes of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, but headwinds persist that could cap further upside, analytics firm CryptoQuant cautioned.

The largest crypto by market capitalization hit $91,700 in the U.S. afternoon, its strongest price since early March. Altcoins followed BTC higher, with Ethereum’s ether (ETH) rising 8% over the past 24 hours above $1,700, and dogecoin (DOGE) and Sui’s native token (SUI) gaining 8.6% and 11.7%, respectively. The broad-market crypto benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index advanced 5.2%.

CoinDesk 20 Index performance on April 22 (CoinDesk)

Markets were buoyed by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reportedly told investors at a closed-door JPMorgan event that the tariff standoff with China was unsustainable. Bessent said de-escalation would come “in the very near future,” characterizing current conditions as a “trade embargo.” However, he cautioned that a more comprehensive deal between the two nations could take even years.

Stocks recovered from yesterday’s decline, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq finishing the session 2.5% and 2.7% higher, respectively. Gold, meanwhile, sharply reversed from its record price of $3,500 during the day and was down 1%.

«As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk,» analysts at hedge fund QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

They highlighted rejuvenating inflows to spot U.S.-listed BTC ETFs and the return of the so-called Coinbase price premium, suggesting demand from American institutional investors. BTC ETF booked over $381 million net inflows on Monday adding to Thursday’s $107 million, according to Farside Investors data.

But not all signs point to a sustained breakout.

Despite the price jump, on-chain data points to fragility beneath the surface, CryptoQuant analysts said in a Tuesday report. Bitcoin’s apparent demand has decreased by 146,000 BTC over the past 30 days—an improvement from the sharp drop in March, but still negative. CryptoQuant’s demand momentum metric, which tracks new investor interest, has deteriorated further to its the most bearish level since October 2024, the report noted.

Market liquidity remains soft, with the report using USDT’s market cap growth as a proxy for crypto liquidity. USDT grew $2.9 billion over the past two months, below its 30-day average. Historically, BTC rallies coincided with USDT growth above $5 billion and above trend — a threshold not yet met.

Adding to the caution, bitcoin is now facing a key resistance zone between $91,000 and $92,000 at around the «Trader’s On-chain Realized Price» metric, a level that has often served as resistance in bearish conditions. CryptoQuant’s on-chain bull score classified current market conditions as bearish, suggesting a pause or pullback could follow if sentiment weakens.

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Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

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Unicoin has rebuffed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) attempt to negotiate a settlement agreement to close an ongoing probe into the Miami-based crypto company, its CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed in a Tuesday letter to investors.

SEC enforcement cases (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

In his letter, Konanykhin said Unicoin was given an “ultimatum” by the SEC to attend a settlement negotiation meeting last week, on April 18.

“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk, adding that the SEC had made demands ahead of the meeting that he found “unacceptable.” He declined to share specifics, telling CoinDesk that the communication between Unicoin’s lawyers and the SEC was confidential.

Unicoin received a Wells notice — a sort of official heads-up from the SEC that it intends to file an enforcement action against the recipient — in December, shortly before former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down, alleging violations related to fraud, deceptive practices, and the offer and sale of unregistered securities. No official enforcement action has yet been filed.

Since President Donald Trump took office, the SEC has reversed its once-aggressive stance toward crypto regulation, backing off from many of its open investigations into crypto companies, including blockchain gaming firm Immutable and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea, and even some of its ongoing litigation, including against Coinbase and Cumberland DRW.

Other SEC enforcement cases against crypto companies, including its cases against Binance and Tron, have been paused while the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement. The agency recently reached a settlement agreement with Nova Labs, the parent company behind the Helium blockchain, that saw Nova Labs pay a $200,000 fine to settle civil securities fraud charges, and the SEC dropped its claims that Helium (HNT) and other related tokens were securities.

In his letter to investors, Konanykhin claimed that the SEC’s probe has caused “multi-billion-dollar damage” to the company and its investors.

“We would likely be a $10B+ publicly traded company by now if the SEC had not blocked our ICO, stock exchange listing and fundraising,” Konanykhin wrote, adding that the SEC had prevented Unicoin from acting on the “very favorable market opportunities.”

“We were forced into a standstill,” Konanykhin wrote.

The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.

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