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Stablecoin Deals and China, Europe to Follow U.S. With Bitcoin Reserve: Wintermute Predictions

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Crypto will become more deeply integrated into traditional finance (TradFi) through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate holdings this year, according to crypto-trading firm Wintermute.

In addition, a large corporate event such as an acquisition or merger will be settled in stablecoins, the market maker and liquidity provider said in an annual review and outlook.

Among its other forecasts:

The U.S. will begin consultations to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, with China, the UAE and Europe following suit.

A publicly listed company will sell debt or shares to buy ether (ETH), mimicking MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) bitcoin acquisition policy.

A systemically important bank will offer spot cryptocurrency trading to clients.

The predictions follow substantial demand growth last year, which saw over-the-counter (OTC) trading institutional trading volumes more than triple following the approval last January of bitcoin (BTC) ETFs and later arrival of ether (ETH) ETFs. The report attributed the interest to improved regulatory clarity and demand for capital-efficient trading. The average OTC trade size increased 17% and total volume 313%, it said.

Derivatives volumes grew by over 300%, driven by institutions searching for more sophisticated yield and risk management instruments. In spot trading, Wintermute noted a record-breaking single-day OTC volume of $2.24 billion, surpassing 2023’s weekly record of $2 billion.

Shift in Asset Preferences

Memecoins were one of the success stories in 2024, seeing their market share more than double to 16%. This was primarily driven in the Solana ecosystem by tokens such as dogwifhat (WIF), bonk (BONK) and ponke (PONKE), though ether continues to dominate.

«We saw record-breaking growth driven by demand for sophisticated products like CFDs and options, reflecting a maturing market that increasingly mirrors traditional finance,» CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said in the report. «We anticipate even greater momentum as crypto integrates deeper into global financial infrastructure through ETFs, corporate holdings, tokenization, and the rise of structured products.»

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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