U.S. recession fears are in the air following President Donald Trump’s tariff plan, with prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicating heightened concerns the economy will take a hit.

On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the chance of the country slipping into recession this year topped 50% for the first time since the betting contract «US Recession in 2025» began trading early this year. The contract’s Yes shares soared to over 50 cents from 39 cents in less than 24 hours.

The contract will resolve to Yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirms a recession at any point before Dec. 31. The other condition requires back-to-back quarterly contractions in gross domestic product.

Kalshi, a U.S.-based regulated prediction market, also points to heightened economic concerns among traders, with the probability of a 2025 recession rising to 54% from 40% .

Financial markets tend to be forward-looking and may react to rising U.S. recession odds by sending risk assets such as bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies lower. At publication time, the S&P 500 futures traded 3% lower, pointing to severe risk aversion on Wall Street and offering bearish cues to bitcoin, which changed hands at $83,100, 1.5% lower in 24 hours.

The sweeping tariffs unveiled Wednesday set a base rate of 10% on all imports, plus higher taxes on 60 nations identified as worst offenders. China, the most heavily hit, warranted a 34% levy on top of the existing 20% charge, taking the total to 54%. The base tariffs go into effect on April 5 and the higher reciprocal rates on April 9.

While the Trump administration expects tariffs to rectify the large and persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, in the short run, they could add to domestic inflation and global instability. The latter could happen immediately if China, the European Union and others hit back with higher tariffs, starting a full-blown global trade war.

Risk-off to be short-lived?

Still, some observers say the tariff uncertainty might lead only to an economic slowdown rather than a full-blown recession.

«The threat of further tariff escalation remains a key concern, but our economic forecasts do not call for a recession in the US,» UBS said in a blog post. «In our base case, a wide range of selective tariffs and counteractions are likely to lead to slower economic growth compared to last year, but they should not prevent the US economy from expanding by around 2%—its historical trend rate—this year.»

As for financial markets, some observers say the tariffs are dovish, meaning the initial risk-off reaction could be short-lived and quickly reversed by expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

«Remember — tariffs are dovish, and big tariffs are very dovish,» Joseph Wang, operator of the research portal fedguy.com said on X, referring to his November post that detailed how big tariffs would lead to more rate cuts.

Wang argued that while tariffs are inflationary, they can be mitigated through foreign-exchange rates and are ultimately transitory. Meanwhile, damage to the business sentiment can be long-lasting, leading to unemployment, which the Fed would want to avoid.

Rates traders are already pricing a higher probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark borrowing cost in June, restarting the so-called easing cycle that began in September last year.

Over $100 million in Ripple USD (RLUSD) has been issued since April 1, among the highest levels in recent months, as demand for the relatively new stablecoin heats up.

A $50 million tranche of RLUSD was issued earlier this week on Tuesday, with another $50 million late Wednesday. That came as Ripple added the stablecoin to its official payments product, with payment providers BKK Forex and iSend already said to be using the stablecoin.

Industry leaders expect RLUSD to further shift crypto market dynamics, where upstarts tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) could see competition from Ripple’s product.

XRP Ledger-based decentralized financial (DeFi) applications could be a cohort to watch for as RLUSD gains traction on various platforms, boosting XRP token demand.

RLUSD is a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, offered on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum blockchain. It is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term U.S. Treasuries, and cash equivalents.

To maintain its peg, RLUSD relies on a 1:1 reserve system—each token matches an equivalent fiat value.

Users can mint RLUSD by depositing dollars with authorized partners, who issue tokens, or burn RLUSD to redeem cash. Market arbitrage helps stabilize its price: if RLUSD trades below $1, traders buy it to redeem at par, raising demand; if above $1, they mint more, increasing supply.

Security features make RLUSD appealing to institutional users. An XRP Ledger amendment in January saw a “clawback” feature go live on the network, allowing the issuer to reclaim or «claw back» certain tokens, such as RLUSD, from users’ wallets under specific conditions.

This feature is typically implemented for regulatory compliance, to recover assets in cases of fraud, illegal activities, or when tokens are sent to unintended addresses.

Higher-than-usual market volatility affected bulls and bears alike as crypto futures racked up $450 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours as U.S. tariffs went into play.

President Donald Trump officially levied a 25% tariff on auto imports and a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the U.S. Additional duties were imposed on the nation’s biggest trading partners in Asia and the European Union, with China facing a 50% hike on several goods and a 26% fee on some Indian goods.

Turmoil in markets ensued with gains from the past three days wiped out in U.S. indices and cryptocurrencies. Asian markets tumbled early Thursday and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slumped to the lowest level in more than five months. Gold set yet another record high.

Bitcoin inched above $87,000 as investors hoped for leaner long-term effects of the economic changes, with signs of a risk-on environment emerging at the start of the week. Majors ether (ETH) and xrp (XRP) traded above $1,900 and $2.15, respectively, with technical analysis suggesting higher moves in the near term.

But the euphoria was short-lived as crypto majors dipped as much as 5% from Wednesday’s highs before gradually stabilizing.

In Asian morning hours on Thursday, bitcoin traded just above $83,500 while ether traded slightly over $1,800 — effectively reversing all gains from Tuesday after a sudden drop following the Tokyo open.

That caused over $230 million in liquidations on both bullish and bearish bets, data shows, in an unusual move. BTC-tracked futures registered over $172 million in long and short liquidations alone, followed by ETH futures at $120 million and smaller altcoins at $50 million.

Liquidation refers to when an exchange forcefully closes a trader’s leveraged position due to a partial or total loss of the trader’s initial margin. It happens when a trader is unable to meet the margin requirements for a leveraged position (fails to have sufficient funds to keep the trade open).

Single-sided large liquidations can signal the local top or bottom of a steep price move, which may allow traders to position themselves accordingly. However, Thursday’s liquidations can be considered a sign of market uncertainty.