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Search for Yield Spurs DeFi Rally Before Jobs Data Revisions: Crypto Daybook Americas

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5 дней ago

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By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless stated otherwise)

DeFi coins are in the spotlight as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) notch modest gains ahead of Tuesday’s big jobs revisions data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are expected to reveal a much weaker job market in the year ended March 2025.

Usually, weak jobs data means more Fed rate cuts — and that’s bullish for BTC. But there’s more to the story: BTC might be king, but it doesn’t yield anything. That’s where decentralized finance comes into the play, offering returns on idle coins through lending and borrowing protocols. This makes DeFi coins all the more attractive as rate-cut bets heat up.

Arthur Hayes, founder of Maelstrom, nailed it: “DeFi will get some of this cash searching for yield.” He pointed to Ethena’s sUSDe token, boasting a solid 7% yield, as a top beneficiary of the impending Fed rate cuts.

So, keep an eye out for DeFi, which is already showing signs of strength.

The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index (DFX) has jumped 3% in the past 24 hours, standing out as one of the top-performing crypto subsectors alongside the CoinDesk Memecoin and Metaverse Select Indices and the CoinDesk 80 Index. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index has gained a 1.6%.

Within DeFi, decentralized exchange tokens are stealing the show. HYPE surged 9% in 24 hours, pushing its seven-day gains to 22%. Even more eye-catching is lesser-known DEX MYX Finance’s native token, MYX, which exploded with a staggering 260% gain in just one day — yes, you read that right.

Adding to the bullish signals, TradingView’s DeFi dominance index has climbed to 3.49%, the highest since early February, underscoring growing appetite for DeFi assets in the current market environment.

Other sectors could gain as well. Most analysts expect retail investors to pull capital from money market funds and channel it into stocks and crypto alike as the Fed begins to cut rates.

But there’s a catch. If the rate cut occurs alongside worsening economic conditions, then investors may retain money market investments, which are highly liquid and considered safe. So, keep an eye on the economic data, particularly the U.S. producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday. Both could add to inflation concerns.

The political situation in Europe, particularly in France, and Japan and resulting bond market jitters could also destabilize markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 9: Shares of SOL Strategies (HODL) are expected to start trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol STKE. OTCQB trading as CYFRF will end, and shares will continue on the Canadian Securities Exchange as HODL.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.31%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.21% vs. Prev. 4.23%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.06% vs. Prev. 0.27%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.58% vs. Prev. 3.51%
    • Sept. 9, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary annual benchmark revision to employment data.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision Prev. -818K
    • Sept. 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. -0.15% vs. Prev. 026%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Eat. 5.1% vs. Prev. 5.23%
    • Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August producer price inflation data.
      • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.9%
      • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.5% vs. Prev. 3.7%
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.9%
      • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS Growth Plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “no result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
    • Goldfinch DAO is voting on the Goldfinch Foundation’s annual budget of $400,000 and 200,000 GFI, as well as an additional $70,000 and 100,000 GFI in returnable market-making liquidity. Voting ends Sept. 10.
    • Compound DAO is voting on extending its COMP yield strategy with MYSO’s decentralized protocol and scaling it up to $9 million worth of tokens, targeting a 15% annual yield for the DAO. Voting ends Sept. 11.
    • Hyperliquid to vote on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Major contenders include Paxos, Frax and a coalition involving Agora and MoonPay. Voting takes place Sept. 14.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 9: Sonic (S) to unlock 5.02% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $50.89 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.01 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $17.8 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $49.12 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 9: Avantis (AVNT) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bybit, KuCoin, MEXC, Gate.io, and others.
    • Sept. 10: Linea (LINEA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, KuCoin, Bitget OKX, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Sam Altman-founded Worldcoin (WLD) continued its ascent on Tuesday, taking another leg up to notch a 51% gain over 24 hours and 122% over the past week.
  • The most recent rise followed Eightco Holdings’ (OCTO) Monday announcement of a $250 million private placement, paving the way for a worldcoin treasury strategy.
  • It’s worth noting that treasury strategy announcements for other tokens prompted muted upside, for example a $1.65 billion raise to form a solana (SOL) treasury on Monday led to a gain of just 1.7% over 24 hours, suggesting additional catalysts behind the WLD move.
  • WLD trading volume surged to $3.7 billion in 24 hours, a 250% rise on the previous day and a 2,000% rise from Friday’s total.
  • From a technical perspective, the WLD price has broken out of an eight-month range that had it suppressed with a median at around $1.00. It is expected to drop back to test $1.62 before potentially revisiting the $2.00 mark.
  • The rally comes amid a backdrop of wider altcoin strength; the CoinMarketCap altcoin season index is at 57/100 as it approaches its highest point this year, indicating that further upside may be on the cards if crypto majors BTC and ETH can continue to drive away from critical levels of support.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

  • The market remains calm despite Friday’s payroll data reigniting concerns about the risk of stagflation. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV, has eased to 38% from 44% at the end of August. Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, slipped to 66%, backing off from its August peak of 77%.
  • The one-day implied volatility indices for both the two largest cryptocurrencies remain little changed, signaling no signs of panic ahead of Tuesday’s announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to revise payroll figures downward for earlier this year.
  • Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 tokens has increased in the last 24 hours, indicating capital inflows. The biggest inflows are into WLD, ENA, SOL, DOGE and XRP. OI in BTC futures has increased by nearly 3%.
  • Solana stands out on the CME, with futures OI hitting a record high of 6.82 million SOL and an annualized three-month premium of over 15%, which is almost double those of BTC and ETH.
  • Traders are continuing to withdraw capital from CME’s bitcoin futures, while open interest in ether futures is extending its descent from recent highs. Positioning in CME options tied to bitcoin and ether remains elevated, indicating hedging demand.
  • On Deribit, the bearish bias for BTC puts has softened but remains noticeable, even as the spot price has bounced close to $113,000. The same can be said for ether.
  • Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm show long positions in September puts combined with writing of upside calls, reflecting traders’ continued caution and reluctance to fully commit to an upside breakout.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.8% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $112,972.37 (24hrs: +0.86%)
  • ETH is up 1.68% at $4,359.91 (24hrs: +0.72%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.45% at 4,158.99 (24hrs: +1.66%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.84%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0068% (7.446% annualized) on KuCoin

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.19% at 97.27
  • Gold futures are up 0.4% at $3,692.10
  • Silver futures are up 0.35% at $41.57
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.42% at 43,459.29
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.19% at 25,938.13
  • FTSE is up 0.1% at 9,230.32
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 5,354.02
  • DJIA closed on Monday up 0.25% at 45,514.95
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.21% at 6,495.15
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.45% at 21,798.70
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 29,027.73
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,802.69
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.5 bps at 4.061%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,513.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% at 23,851.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,581.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.19% (-0.26%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03859 (0.39%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 983 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.7
  • Total fees: 3.99 BTC / $446,538
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 133,255 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.77%

Technical Analysis

BTC's hourly chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • BTC’s hourly chart shows that prices are looking to break out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
  • The move above the neckline (the dashed line) would expose resistance at $117,439.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $302.2 (+1.05%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $112.46 (-1.83%), +1.12% at $113.72
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.22 (+3.11%), -2.19% at $23.69
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $50.12 (-4.26%), +5.19% at $52.72
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.2 (+0.07%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.44 (+1.13%), -1.04% at $13.30
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.93 (+2.28%), -2.94% at $13.52
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.17 (-0.76%), +0.87% at $9.25
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.69 (+0.81%), -0.27% at $29.61
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.3 (+9.45%), -7.03% at $24.45

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $329.9 (-1.78%), -0.33% at $328.80
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.29 (+0.6%), unchanged in pre-market
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.67 (+4.92%), -3.06% at $15.19
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.66 (-6.29%), +4.42% at $5.91
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $3 (-29.08%), +1.67% at $3.05

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: 364.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.83 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$96.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $12.64 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.39 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

Weekly perpetual trading volume on decentralized excange MYX Finance. (DeFiLlama)

  • The chart by DeFiLlama shows weekly trading volumes in perpetuals listed on decentralized exchange MYX Finance.
  • Volumes have significantly increased since April, reaching a high of $2.56 billion in mid-August. This partially explains the price rally in the DEX’s native token.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Tom Lee built a 2m ETH reserve in less than 60 days. There’s a large-scale supply chain attack in progressGold has finally taken out its 45-year inflation adjusted record highmeh oh noooPeople are beginning to see the upside. This Q prediction markets will take over CT

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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

Published

2 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.

Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.

Power play

It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.

Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.

However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.

Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.

This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.

Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.

The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.

Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Terraforming AI

Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.

As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»

This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Higher returns

In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.

But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.

Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.

A niche industry worth billions

As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.

While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.

With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.

This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.

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Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

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3 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics)

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.

The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.

MSTR (TradingView)

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.

US 10-year (TradingView)

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.

A chart of the DXY index

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Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

Published

16 часов ago

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13 сентября, 2025

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Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

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