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Robinhood Crypto Revenue Expected to Fall in Q1 After Record Late 2024 Gain: JPMorgan

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Robinhood’s (HOOD) record crypto trading revenue from the last quarter of 2024 may prove hard to repeat, according to JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington, who forecast a drop in digital asset volumes for the first quarter of this year.

The online trading platform reports first quarter results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday.

The fourth quarter’s staggering 700% surge in cryptocurrency trading revenue was behind a sizable jump in HOOD’s overall transaction-based revenue. Worthington, however, sees that momentum stalling in the first quarter, citing a decline in both equity and crypto markets, especially in the latter half of the quarter.

Worthington and team estimate Robinhood users traded about $52 billion in crypto during the quarter, down from $71 billion in Q4. Worthington attributes the drop to a “risk-off” environment that erased much of the market’s gains since the start of the year. Robinhood’s assets under custody (AUC) are expected to fall 5% from the prior quarter to $183.3 billion, though still up 41% year-over-year.

While the report highlights strong retail buying in early April following tariff-related news from Washington, Worthington suggests that activity may not be enough to lift first quarter results. He warns that softer demand for margin and derivatives trading — also seen at competitor Interactive Brokers — could weigh on Robinhood’s overall performance.

Worthington maintained a neutral rating on the stock and trimmed his price target by $1 to $44, suggesting about 10% downside from the current price just below $49.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Trump’s Truth Social Mulls Launching Token for Subscriptions in Latest Crypto Push

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Truth Social, the social media platform owned by Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which is majority-owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, is considering launching a cryptocurrency.

«As part of our rewards program, we’re exploring the introduction of a utility token with a Truth digital wallet that can initially be used to pay for Truth+ subscription costs, and later be applied to other products and services in the Truth ecosphere,» the company said in a letter to its shareholders on Tuesday.

DJT barely reacted to the news; the stock is down 0.52% in after-hours trading.

The company is also looking into launching exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that will combine equities with cryptocurrencies, the letter reiterated.

Trump’s entourage has released a panoply of crypto products over the years, including memecoins, NFT collections, and a DeFi protocol.

Read more: Trump Media Wants to Partner with Crypto.Com for ETP Issuance

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Bitcoin Edges Above $95K, U.S. Stocks Remain Strong as Analyst Warns of ‘Blind’ Market

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The crypto market experienced another relatively calm day on Tuesday despite widespread pessimism about the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on the economy.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1% in the last 24 hours, trading at almost $95,400 and within sight of topping $96,000 for the first time since the second half of February. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, exchange coins and memecoins — rose 1.1%, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) outshining the rest of the index by surging 6.3%.

Crypto stocks had fairly muted performances Tuesday, with Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) up 0.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Janover (JNVR), continued to benefit from its SOL accumulation strategy, rising another 16%.

The stock market also continued its recovery from the early April-tariff induced panic, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each adding 0.55%.

For some observers, the market’s performance has seemed unanchored from the wave of economic data coming in that suggests that U.S. economic activity is slowing down due to the tariff policies unleashed by the White House.

Consumer confidence came in at its lowest level since May 2020, according to a Conference Board survey, while the consumer outlook hit its lowest point since 2011. Meanwhile, the JOLTS survey indicated that job openings had fallen to 7.19 million in March versus an expected 7.5 million.

In fresh tariff news, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said today that a trade deal had been reached with an unspecified country, though the deal still needed to be ratified with that country’s leaders.

Some shade on the rally

“Hard to fathom how blind the market really is,” Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, posted on X.

“A Fed cut means nothing if U.S. creditworthiness is permanently impaired by the global community as resulted by dollar weaponization,” Park said, referring to recent speculation on whether the U.S. central bank will be forced to lower rates to counter the effect of Trump’s tariffs. “That’s the mispricing we are talking about here,» he continued. «The myopic focus on whether [we] are getting a fed cut in May/June is completely irrelevant if the notion of the risk-free as we know it is fundamentally challenged forever, which means cost of capital globally is going higher.”

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SoFi Plans Major Push Into Crypto Amid New Regulatory Environment

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SoFi has plans to bring back crypto services for its clients after suspending those operations in 2023 so as not to impede its effort to become a regulated bank.

“We’re going to re-enter the crypto business, which we had to exit,» SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said in an interview with CNBC. «We’ll re-enter the business of allowing our members to invest in cryptocurrency. We want to actually make a bigger, more comprehensive push into cryptocurrency, to include really providing crypto or blockchain capabilities in each product area that we have.»

The tech company had offered clients access to more than 20 tokens back in 2023 but decided to halt its services as it was in the process of receiving a bank charter in the U.S. during a time when scrutiny over the digital asset industry was decidedly unfriendly under the Biden administration.

Noto said that thanks to new guidance from the Comptroller of the Currency, which was published in March and promised a reduced burden on banks engaged in the sector, the tech company could start offering crypto investing by the end of this year.

SoFi will also look to use blockchain technology in all of its major products over the next 24 months, he said, and the company could also offer crypto payments as well as lending against crypto assets.

“Our aspirations are as broad as they are for any other product that we have, and we believe we can leverage the technology across lending and savings and spending and investing and protecting,» Noto said.

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