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Risk-On Rules as CPI Fails to Dent Rally: Crypto Daybook Americas

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1 месяц ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Two years ago, I posted on X that the new normal for U.S. inflation in the post-COVID world is much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The market’s reaction to Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. core CPI report suggests a growing number of investors now share that view.

The data for July showed that annualized core CPI topped the 3% mark for the first time, primarily due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed has only once cut interest rates when core inflation was above 3%.

Even so, bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 1% on Wednesday, and ether, often envisaged as an internet bond, jumped by over 8%. U.S. stocks also rallied as traders seemingly disregarded the inflation number and continued to price in a September rate cut.

This dynamic suggests that the 2% inflation target is likely dead. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said Tuesday that the Fed should consider a 50 basis-point cut in September.

This scenario is bullish for assets with inflation-hedge appeal, such as bitcoin and gold, as it implies that central banks are willing to overlook higher inflation to cut rates.

BTC recently traded near $120,000, while gold remained lackluster between $3,300 and $3,400. Several alternative cryptocurrencies posted gains in excess of 10% as retail investors flocked to cheaper coins.

«Bitcoin’s current rally reveals a structural shift in crypto market participation that could define this cycle,» Will K, CEO of decentralized trading platform VOOI and Co-Founder of Symbiosis.Finance, told CoinDesk. «While institutions gained exposure through ETFs, retail traders are quietly returning to DeFi platforms that have removed previous barriers to entry.»

This dual-sided crypto adoption has changed the market composition, where institutional capital flows through regulated products and sophisticated retail re-engages through evolved decentralized infrastructure.

«Traders are no longer choosing between traditional and decentralized markets, they’re using both simultaneously,» K said.

Speaking of adoption, USDC issuer Circle unveiled its stablecoin-focused layer 1 blockchain, Arc. The blockchain focus on financial transactions: payments, currency exchange and capital markets. Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma completed a $1.5 billion registered direct offering and private placement led by World Liberty Financial.

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The continued decline supports easing of financial conditions and increased risk-taking in financial markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 13, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Bullish, the parent company of Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, begin trading on the NYSE under ticker BLSH. The shares were priced at $37 each, with 30 million on offer to raise $1.1 billion and value the company near $5.4 billion.
    • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
    • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
    • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 13: A series of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, apply pressure on Russia and discuss peace talks.
    • Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.6% vs. Prev. 39.4%
    • Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July producer price inflation data.
      • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%
      • Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
      • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru’s central bank announces its monetary policy decision.
      • Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
    • Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office, which is part of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%
    • Aug. 15: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the ongoing war in Ukraine.
    • Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
    • Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
    • Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
    • Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Compound DAO is voting to appoint ChainSecurity and Certora as joint security provers, with ZeroShadow handling incident response under a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed budget starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13.
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
    • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to host a tokenholder update call.
    • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a townhall meeting.
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.33% of its circulating supply worth $41.92 million.
    • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $18.22 million.
    • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $18.7 million.
    • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $44.79 million.
    • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.
    • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $60.41 million.
    • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $28.95 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 13: Overlay (OVL) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Gate.io, WEEX, Ourbit, MEXC, BYDFi, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • OKB surged to a record $142 (+200%) after OKX announced a permanent supply cut to 21M tokens — one of the largest in its history — alongside a “PP upgrade” to its Polygon-powered X Layer chain.
  • The upgrade boosts throughput to 5,000 TPS, cuts gas fees to near zero and adds gasless USDT withdrawals.
  • OKX will also decommission OKTChain, halting OKT trading on Aug. 13 and converting balances to OKB from Aug. 15.
  • Eden Network is shutting down all services, including Eden RPC and Bundles, citing unprofitable competition in the MEV relay and block-building space.
  • Starting in 2021 to optimize MEV revenue for miners and validators, Eden saw early success but lost ground post-Merge as the market consolidated around a few operators.
  • FARTCOIN rose 17% as whale wallets with $1M+ in holdings increased supply by 2% over 24 hours, while “smart money” addresses boosted holdings by 3%.
  • MACD momentum on the daily chart is bullish, with the token eyeing a breakout above $1.74 if buying persists. Key support sits at $0.74 if momentum fades.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Ether’s (ETH) price rise is accompanied by fresh capital inflows into CME-listed futures, where open interest in standard contracts sized at 50 ETH has increased to 1.85 million ETH, up from 1.5 million ETH just over a week ago.
  • Traders appear to be positioning for an upside as the annualized three-month basis has topped 10%. In bitcoin’s (BTC) case, CME basis remains near 7.5%.
  • The altcoin market shows no signs of overheating despite ether surging toward record highs. That’s evident from perpetual funding rates on offshore exchanges, which remain pinned near annualized 10% for most major tokens.
  • Open interest in privacy-focused Monero (XMR) rose to the highest level since December, as the token’s price dropped to $245, the lowest since April. The data indicate that traders sold the rally to profit from the price drop.
  • On Deribit, ether traders chased calls at strike $5,000 and higher in a sign of bullish market sentiment. ETH calls traded at a premium relative to puts across all tenors. Still, ether’s 30-day implied volatility index, ETH DVOL, remained pinned in recent ranges around 70%.
  • BTC’s implied volatility also remained relatively steady. Flows on the OTC network Paradigm featured demand for higher-strike OTM calls, particularly the $ 160,000 strike.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $120,049.72 (24hrs: +1.46%)
  • ETH is up 1.59% at $4,691.83 (24hrs: +9.76%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.28% at 4,370.33 (24hrs: +7.11%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.97%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0196% (21.462% annualized) on KuCoin

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.45% at 97.66
  • Gold futures are up 0.48% at $3,415.20
  • Silver futures are up 1.64% at $38.62
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.30% at 43,274.67
  • Hang Seng closed up 2.58% at 25,613.67
  • FTSE is up 0.14% at 9,160.17
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.76% at 5,376.35
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday up 1.10% at 44,458.61
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.13% at 6,445.76
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.39% at 21,681.90
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.53% at 27,921.26
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.82% at 2,696.80
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.9 bps at 4.254%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,479.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 23,992.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.22% at 44,656.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.3% (-0.63%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03858 (0.96%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 893 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $58.74
  • Total fees: 4.25 BTC / $506,562
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 139,255 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 35.7 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 10.1%

Technical Analysis

ETH's weekly chart with the RSI. (TradingView)

  • Ether’s 14-week relative strength index (RSI), a popular indicator, has crossed above 70 to indicate strong bullish momentum.
  • Historically, readings above 70 have marked phases of the market characterized by fear of missing out (FOMO) and rapid price rallies.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $394.39 (-1.46%), +0.66% at $397 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $322.62 (+0.94%), +0.98% at $325.77
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $163.21 (+1.27%), -4.45% at $155.94
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.90 (-2.04%), +1.83% at $28.41
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.72 (+0.38%), +1.02% at $15.88
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.44 (+2.97%), +0.96% at $11.55
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.11 (+3.99%), -5.89% at $14.22
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.92 (+0.51%), +0.81% at $10
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.41 (+1.4%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.54 (-2.1%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.86 (-7.5%), unchanged in pre-market
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $22.47 (+0.6%), +2.67% at $23.07

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $65.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.65 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $523.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.38 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

MOVE index. (TradingView)

  • The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in the Treasury market, has dropped to 77.42, the lowest since January 2022.
  • The slide supports continued risk-taking in financial markets.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Let’s just install @fundstrat as the head of the #Ethereum Foundation. Who is with me?M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22 TrillionThis is a clear chess move. Trump wants Powell to resign from the Fed once his term as Chair ends in 2026. pumpdotfun has recently bought back over $700K worth of $PUMP.Stripe, Circle, Robinhood, and Coinbase all launching their own EVM chains is a massive wake up call

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What’s Next for Bitcoin and Ether as Downside Fears Ease Ahead of Fed Rate Cut?

Published

2 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Fears of a downside for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17.

BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata.

The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. Ether’s options skew is exhibiting a similar pattern at the time of writing.

The skew shows the market’s directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection.

The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk data.

What happens next largely depends on the size of the impending Fed rate cut. According to CME’s Fed funds futures, traders have priced in over 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%-4.25%. But there is also a slight possibility of a jumbo 50 bps move.

BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move.

«A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,» Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. «Gold will go absolutely nuts as well.»

Note that the Deribit-listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts.

Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm «grind higher» for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added.

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Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote

Published

7 часов ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.

Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.

According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.

The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.

USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.

Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.

Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.

Market Movement

BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.

Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • Pakistan’s crypto regulator invites crypto firms to get licensed, serve 40 million local users (The Block)
  • Inside the IRS’s Expanding Surveillance of Crypto Investors (Decrypt)
  • Massachusetts State Attorney General Alleges Kalshi Violating Sports Gambling Laws (CoinDesk)
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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

14 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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