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Record $14B Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms as Market Looks Highly Levered-Up

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Just when you thought the year-end couldn’t get any more intriguing, a significant options expiry is set to shake things up in this highly levered-up market.

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a preset price at a later date. A call gives the right to buy, and a put confers the right to sell.

On Friday at 8:00 UTC, 146,000 bitcoin options contracts, valued at nearly $14 billion and sized at one BTC each, will expire on the crypto exchange Deribit. The notional amount represents 44% of the total open interest for all BTC options across different maturities, marking the largest expiry event ever on Deribit.

ETH options worth $3.84 billion will expire as well. ETH has dropped nearly 12% to $3,400 since the Fed meeting. Deribit accounts for over 80% of the global crypto options market.

Significant OI to expire ITM

As of writing, Friday’s settlement looked set to see $4 billion worth of BTC options, representing 28% of the total open interest of $14 billion, expire «in the money (ITM),» generating a profit for buyers. These positions may be squared off or rolled over (shifted) to the next expiry, potentially causing market volatility.

«I suspect a fair bit of open interest in BTC and ETH will be rolled into Jan. 31 and Mar. 28 expiries as the nearest liquidity anchors at the start of the new year,» Simranjeet Singh, portfolio manager and trader, at GSR said.

It should also be noted that the put-call open interest ratio for Friday’s expiry is 0.69, meaning seven put options are open for every 10 calls outstanding. A relatively higher open interest in calls, which provides an asymmetric upside to the buyer, indicates that leverage is skewed to the upside.

The issue, however, is that BTC’s bullish momentum has run out of steam since last Wednesday’s Fed decision, where Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out potential Fed purchases of the cryptocurrency while signaling fewer rate cuts for 2025.

BTC has since dropped over 10% to $95,000, according to CoinDesk indices data.

This means that traders with leveraged bullish bets are at risk of magnified losses. If they decide to throw in the towel and exit their positions, it could lead to more volatility.

«The previously dominant bullish momentum has stalled, leaving the market highly leveraged to the upside. This positioning increases the risk of a rapid snowball effect if a significant downside move occurs,» Deribit’s Chief Executive Officer Luuk Strijers told CoinDesk.

«All eyes are on this expiry, as it has the potential to shape the narrative heading into the new year,» Strijers added.

Directional uncertainty lingers

Key options-based metrics show there’s a noticeable lack of clarity in the market regarding potential price movements as the record expiry nears.

«The much-anticipated annual expiry is poised to conclude a remarkable year for the bulls. However, directional uncertainty lingers, highlighted by heightened volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol),» Strijers said.

The volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol) is a measure of fluctuations in the volatility of an asset. In other words, it measures how much the volatility or the degree of price turbulence in the asset itself fluctuates. If an asset’s volatility changes significantly over time, it has a high vol-of-vol.

A high vol-of-vol typically means increased sensitivity to news and economic data, leading to rapid changes in asset prices, necessitating aggressive position adjustment and hedging.

Market more bearish on ETH

How options due for expiry are currently priced reveals a more bearish outlook for ETH relative to BTC.

«Comparing the vol smiles of the [Friday’s] expiration between today and yesterday, we see that BTC’s smile is almost unmoved, while ETH’s implied vol of calls has dropped significantly,» Andrew Melville, research analyst at Block Scholes.

A volatility smile is a graphical representation of the implied volatility of options with the same expiration date but different strike prices. The drop in implied volatility for ETH calls means decreased demand for bullish bets, indicating a subdued outlook for Ethereum’s native token.

That’s also evident from the options skew, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for calls offering an asymmetric upside potential versus puts.

«After more than a week of poorer spot performance, ETH’s put-call skew ratio is more strongly bearish (2.06% in favour of puts compared to a more neutral 1.64% towards calls for BTC),» Melville noted.

Overall, end-of-year positioning reflects a moderately less bullish picture than we saw going into December, but even more starkly for ETH than BTC,» Melville added.

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U.S. Law Enforcement Seizes $31M in Crypto Tied to Uranium Finance Hack

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U.S. authorities have seized about $31 million in crypto tied to the 2021 hack of Uranium Finance, according to a Monday X post from the Southern District of New York (SDNY).

According to the post, the seizure was the result of a joint effort between SDNY and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in San Diego. A spokesperson for SDNY did not return CoinDesk’s request for comment before press time, and no further details about the seizure or any related investigation were immediately available.

Uranium Finance was essentially a clone of automated market maker (AMM) Uniswap deployed on Binance’s BNB chain (then called Binance Smart Chain). In April 2021, a hacker exploited a bug in Uranium’s pair contracts to steal $50 million in various tokens. At the time of the incident, the Uranium Finance hack was one of the largest monetary exploits in decentralized finance (DeFi) history.

Read more: Binance Chain DeFi Exchange Uranium Finance Loses $50M in Exploit

After the exploit, the hacker attempted to launder a portion of the funds in a variety of ways, including using crypto mixer Tornado Cash, depositing small amounts of crypto into centralized exchanges, and, according to blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, perhaps through purchasing rare and highly valuable Magic: The Gathering trading cards.

Uranium Finance shuttered after the hack, leaving victims without answers or financial restitution. The partial recovery, which comes nearly four years after the initial attack, offers the first glimmer of hope for victims to see some of their money returned.

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Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade Goes Live on ‘Holesky’ Testnet, But Fails to Finalize

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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the Holesky testnet on Monday but failed to finalize in the expected time.

Pectra was activated on the Holesky testnet at 21:55 UTC (4:55 p.m. ET), but did not initially finalize according to blockchain data.

Finality is the state in which, once a transaction is confirmed and added to a block, it is immutable and cannot be reversed. A testnet is a network that copies a main blockchain (in this case Ethereum), and is used to test upgrades or new code before it goes to the main network.

It is not immediately clear why the Pectra upgrade did not finalize on Holesky. Ethereum developers were discussing Monday over the Eth R&D Discord channel what the issue could be.

This is not the first time an upgrade has not finalized on an Etheruem test network. In January 2024, when the developers were testing the Dencun upgrade, the hard fork did not initially finalize on the Goerli testnet.

What is Pectra?

The Pectra hard fork combines together 11 major upgrades, or «Ethereum improvement proposals» (EIPs), into one package. At the heart of this is EIP-7702, which is supposed to improve the user-experience of crypto wallets. The proposal, which was scribbled by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in just 22 minutes, will allow wallets to have some smart contract capabilities, as part of a broader strategy to bring account abstraction to Ethereum — a concept that makes the usability of wallets a lot less clunky.

Another key proposal, EIP-7251, will allow validators to increase the maximum amount they can stake from 32 to 2,048 ETH. The proposal is supposed to ease some of the technicalities that validators who stake ETH face today: Those that stake more than their 32 ETH have to spread that across multiple validators, making the process a bit of a nuisance. By lifting the maximum stake limit and combining those validators, it could speed up the process of setting up new nodes.

Holesky is the first of two testnets to run through a simulation of Pectra. The next test is supposed to occur on the Sepolia testnet on Mar. 5. But according to Christine Kim, a Vice President of Research at Galaxy, developers could delay it depending on the scale of today’s issue.

After Pectra goes live on both testnets, developers will ink in a final date to activate the upgrade on mainnet.

Pectra was originally on track to be Ethereum’s biggest upgrade to date, and it’s the first big change to the blockchain in almost a year. Developers decided that Pectra was too ambitious, and they agreed to split the original package into two.

Read more: Ethereum Developers Finally Schedule ‘Pectra’ Upgrade

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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters

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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.

Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.

Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.

The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.

“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.

Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.

Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.

“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.

“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”

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