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Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win as Canadians Head to the Polls

Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls.
As the country’s 45th election comes to a close, a contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre a 22% shot.
Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of Carney’s chances of winning than the polls, but both are pointing in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC puts Carney’s chances at 89%.
Myriad Markets, another prediction market, is giving Carney similar odds to Polymarket.
FanDuel, a licensed betting platform open only to residents of Ontario, Canada, initially gave the Conservatives a sharp, contrarian lead of 70%, according to a report from the National Post. Still, odds have fallen in line with prediction markets, and it now gives the Liberals a roughly 80% chance of winning.
Unlike the U.S. election, there isn’t a crypto angle up north with leaders’ campaigns focused on the trade war and inflation.
Too Big to Rig?
A growing narrative in certain corners of the internet is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers aren’t reliable, criticisms that echo what was said in the last weeks of the U.S. election when the site gave Donald Trump a commanding lead as polls showed a tight race.
Critics say Poilievre’s chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace.
However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there’s no credible evidence that this is happening even as Polymarket is banned in Canada’s largest province after a settlement with its securities regulator.
Data portal Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active, unsettled bets and a good measure of market engagement.
Market data also shows that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilivere—No side of the contracting holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Carney—Yes side holding 5%.
One bettor, who is betting big on Carney with a six-figure position, who spoke to CoinDesk, said their motives are non-partisan, and said that the quality of Canadian polling makes him confident that the Liberals will win.
«Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think the probability of that is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23c,» trader Tenadome told CoinDesk via an X DM. «The pool of Poilievre bettors seems to largely be very dumb money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls.»
Currently, the trader with the largest winnings on the contract is «ball-sack» with a profit of $124,890, thanks to bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is «biden4prez,» who lost just over $98,000 – the most out of any trader – betting on Poilievre and against Carney.
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Kraken’s Former Legal Chief Marco Santori Joins Pantera Capital

Marco Santori, the former chief legal officer at Kraken, has joined Pantera Capital as a general partner on the investment team.
Santori, who stepped down from Kraken in January of 2025, will focus on expanding Pantera’s crypto portfolio, while acting as a resource for portfolio companies on regulatory compliance and strategic growth, according to a blogpost.
He will also continue his role in engaging with policymakers to advocate for clear, innovation-friendly regulations in the U.S. and globally, Pantera said.
The advancement of clear crypto regulations in the U.S. makes it an area of focus for firms readying themselves.
Sartori, who testified before the U.S. Congress on the subject of crypto regulation, is recognized for developing the “SAFT” (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens) framework, a cornerstone of compliant token sales.
“I’m joining Pantera at a pivotal moment for crypto on the world stage. After over a decade of work, governments have finally embraced the benefits of blockchain technology,” Sartori said in a statement. “The timing couldn’t be better, and Pantera couldn’t be better positioned to capitalize on it.”
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Tether’s $770M XAUT Backed by 7.7 Tons of Gold in Swiss Vault, Says Company

Tether’s gold-backed stablecoin, Tether Gold (XAUT), reached a $770 million market capitalization as of April 28, according to the company’s first attestation under El Salvador’s financial regulations.
«While central banks are stacking up hundreds of tons of gold, XAUt is set to become the standard tokenized gold product for the people and institutions,» Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino posted on X.
The token is backed 1:1 by 246,523.33 ounces — over 7.7 tons — of physical gold stored in a dedicated Swiss vault, said Tether.
Each XAUT token represents one troy ounce of LBMA-certified gold. Tether said it applies strict controls, including gold bar verification and periodic audits, to maintain trust in the token’s backing.
The attestation comes at a time when global investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against economic instability and rising geopolitical risks.
Central banks, particularly across BRICS nations, have been buying gold at record levels, accumulating over 1,044 metric tons in 2024 alone, according to the World Gold Council.
The yellow metal has touched numerous record highs in 2025 amid an ongoing rally that’s seen its price gain about 27% year-to-date. It’s currently trading at $3,343 per ounce, having more than doubled since November 2022.
Tether emphasized that unlike other tokenized gold products, XAUT is physically backed and regulated, positioning it as a safer option for users wary of «paper gold» exposure.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Bitcoin Miner 1Q Results May Disappoint as Hashprice Fell, Tariffs Hit: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) miners’ first-quarter results may disappoint because the hashprice, a measure of daily mining profitability, fell further and trade tariffs weighed on the market, asset manager CoinShares (CS) said in a blog post on Friday.
«Q2 results may show deterioration, as tariffs on imported mining rigs range from 24% (Malaysia) to 54% (China),» analysts led by James Butterfill wrote.
Bitcoin miners that are dependent on older or less-efficient rigs are faced with higher exposure to these tariffs, the report said.
Core Scientific (CORZ) is «better insulated, as it transitions to HPC,» the authors wrote, adding that Bitdeer (BTDR), which makes its own rigs, could see margin pressure on sales outside the U.S.
The asset manager predicts that the Bitcoin network hashrate could reach 1 zettahash per second (ZH/s) by July and 2 ZH/s by early 2027.
The hashprice outlook is not as positive.
The asset manager’s model indicates «a gradual structural decline, with prices likely to remain range-bound between $35 and $50 per PH/day through to the 2028 halving cycle.»
Tariffs and trade tensions could be positive for bitcoin adoption in the medium term, asset manager Grayscale said in a research report earlier this month.
Read more: Bitcoin Miners With HPC Exposure Underperformed in First Two Weeks of April: JPMorgan
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