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Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows

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During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a «hot swap» of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/29/can-prediction-market-boom-continue-after-election-this-crypto-team-has-a-plan» target=»_blank»>doubts lingered</a> about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.

On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a <a href=»https://research.animocabrands.com/post/cm34k8cug43d007mi0zpie48a» target=»_blank»>report</a> with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.

Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.

A month later, that analysis is looking right.

A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, reflects the platform’s liquidity, user activity, and overall market engagement.

Data from a <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343122/5601864″ target=»_blank»>Dune Analytics dashboard</a> shows that while open interest hit peaked just above $475 million on Election Day – and, predictably, significantly declined in the days after – it has been ticking back up in the last week.

The data shows open interest dropped to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then slowly climbed to $104 million by November 15 and further to $115.25 million by November 30. These aren’t bad numbers for Polymarket by any means, because this is where open interest was in mid-September, when election fever was in full swing.

Similarly, <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343108/5601830″ target=»_blank»>daily volumes</a>, while down sharply from their $367 million peak the day after the election, have plateaued in the mid- to high eight figure range, which is still higher than they were in September.

The next metric to look at is the number of active wallets on the platform.

In the last week, this metric – which reflects the number of traders active on the platform – has been hovering around the mid-30,000 mark, which isn’t substantially lower than the weeklong run-up to election day, when there were an average of 39,100 active wallets at work.

And is Polymarket reliant on a few whales to drive volume? Not really.

<a href=»https://dune.com/queries/4061600/6839023″ target=»_blank»>Data shows</a> that around 60% of all bets are coming in under $100, and only 5.8% of bets are between $1,000 and $5,000.

Polymarket is here to stay, but dark clouds remain. It needs to <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/13/fbi-reportedly-raids-polymarket-ceos-home» target=»_blank»>work through its legal issues</a>, which may soon be resolved if President-elect Trump installs a crypto-friendly financial regulatory regime.

Influencer Mea Culpa

A social media influencer <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/25/mudslinging-sullies-prediction-markets-just-as-sectors-prospects-brighten» target=»_blank»>involved in a Kalshi plot to bash Polymarket and its founder</a>, Shayne Coplan, has apologized for a post in which he called Coplan the «n-word» and said he «look[ed] guilty.»

«I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it,» Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday. «I want to say sry to Shayne Coplan.»

Earlier, Clown World, an influencer account that regularly tweets Kalshi-related content, deleted a post calling Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried lookalikes.

Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has previously declined to comment on the record.

Markets Missed Biden Pardon

Hunter Biden, the wayward son of President Joe Biden, <a href=»https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/01/us/hunter-biden-pardon-live» target=»_blank»>was pardoned Sunday</a>, a move that surprised many – including traders on Polymarket.

The pardon covers all offenses committed in a ten-year period between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, a statement from the White House reads. This covers Hunter’s tax and gun charges – in addition to any undetected crimes.

Before the pardon announcement, contracts representing the yes side of the question were trading around 28 to 30 cents, reflecting a 28% to 30% chance a pardon would happen. Now that the White House has confirmed the executive grant of clemency, these contracts shot up to 100%, which means they will pay out 1 USDC, each worth $1, per share.

The market was skeptical a pardon would happen, <a href=»https://apnews.com/article/biden-son-hunter-charges-pardon-pledge-24f3007c2d2f467fa48e21bbc7262525″ target=»_blank»>given multiple pledges</a> by the President that it would not.

<a href=»https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-biden-18efb958a5365eebda5bb3da411c4326″ target=»_blank»>In June</a>, the elder Biden promised to respect a jury decision regarding a gun charge and not pardon his son. At the time, the market was giving a 12% chance of a pardon.

Data aggregator <a href=»https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/markets?event=10882″ target=»_blank»>Polymarket Analytics</a> shows that the top holder of the yes side, a user who goes by «<a href=»https://polymarket.com/profile/0x008bf350637ce1ea308b3622a0d44116f9f3b476″ target=»_blank»>PollsR4Dummies</a>» took home $223,472 on his bet of $87,740.

The polling skeptic is also holding two long-shot yes positions, betting that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, currently at 32% <a href=»https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/21/politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-defense-secretary-trump/index.html» target=»_blank»>given recent sexual assault allegations</a>, and that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2024 (the market gives this a 29% chance).

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5 Ways the SEC Can Embrace Innovation

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has long been the world’s most influential financial regulator, helping to ensure our capital markets are the deepest, fairest, and most accessible in the world. But its continued relevance will depend on whether it can do more than merely respond to innovation — it must proactively foster it.

For nearly a century, the SEC has adapted to evolving markets, new technologies and greater retail participation. In its best moments, the agency has embraced innovation in service of transparency, investor protection, and capital formation. But in recent years, it has strayed from that legacy — nowhere more visibly than in its approach to crypto and blockchain.

The good news is, with a change in leadership and a more open posture emerging, the SEC has a chance to course-correct. But the bigger question is: how do we make that change permanent? How do we build innovation into the SEC’s DNA so that the next promising financial technology isn’t strangled in its crib?

I spent nearly six years at the SEC, first as a Senior Counsel in the Division of Enforcement and then as Chief Counsel in the Office of Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs. I’ve since held senior legal and policy roles in crypto firms across the ecosystem. From both perspectives, one thing is clear: the SEC can fulfill its mission more effectively — and maintain its global leadership — only if it becomes a proactive partner in financial innovation.

The SEC at Its Best

The SEC has a proud history of embracing change to the benefit of investors and markets alike. In the 1990s, it digitized corporate filings through EDGAR, replacing paper documents with searchable databases. It later approved Regulation ATS, enabling the rise of alternative trading systems that increased competition and liquidity. ETFs, which were once novel, are now mainstream products that offer low-cost, diversified exposure to a wide range of assets. More recently, fractional-share trading has empowered millions of retail investors to own a slice of companies they once could only admire from afar.

One especially relevant example as the SEC thinks about how to regulate crypto is the agency’s treatment of asset-backed securities. In the 1980s and 1990s, the SEC recognized that these complex financial products didn’t fit neatly into existing disclosure regimes. After years of study and no-action letters, it developed a tailored disclosure framework in 2004 — refined further in 2014 — that balanced innovation with investor protection. And it didn’t need to bring hundreds of enforcement actions to do it.

When the SEC Fell Behind

There are also times the SEC failed to adapt, to the detriment of both investors and markets. It was slow to respond to the rise of high-frequency trading, contributing to the 2010 Flash Crash. It took years to implement the crowdfunding rules authorized by the JOBS Act. It lagged on digital reporting standards, delaying broader access to market data.

And, for much of the last few years, its stance on crypto veered from caution to outright hostility. Instead of issuing clear rules for digital assets, the agency pursued a scattershot enforcement campaign — often against firms that were seeking to comply in good faith. Many of these actions didn’t even involve fraud or investor loss. Meanwhile, American crypto companies fled overseas, and a global industry flourished without us.

Even the SEC’s grudging approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024 came only after it was forced by a federal court. And while the agency at one point talked about creating a crypto disclosure framework akin to what it did for ABS, it never followed through.

Innovation Isn’t the Enemy

Crypto may be new, but the SEC has faced this challenge before. It knows how to modernize its rules to meet new realities. What’s different now is the opportunity to leverage innovation — not just regulate it.

Take blockchain technology. It could enable near-instant trade settlement, reducing risk and freeing up capital. It could improve market transparency through immutable records and real-time transaction data. It could lower operational costs by reducing intermediaries. And tokenization could expand access to private markets and hard-to-reach asset classes, benefiting both issuers and investors.

Ironically, the SEC hasn’t seriously explored how blockchain could improve its own market oversight. That’s a missed opportunity. But it’s not too late.

A Blueprint for the Future

So what would it look like to build innovation into the SEC’s core mission?

  • Revise the SEC’s Mandate: Congress should amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to explicitly include the promotion of innovation and modernization, alongside investor protection, market integrity, and capital formation.
  • Rethink Metrics of Success: The SEC shouldn’t measure success solely by the number of enforcement actions or penalties collected. It should also look to capital formation, investor confidence, and the safe adoption of new technologies.
  • Create an Innovation Office: A dedicated, empowered team should engage with entrepreneurs, technologists, and academics to guide responsible innovation — just as similar offices in the U.K. and Singapore have done.
  • Adopt Risk-Based Regulation: Not every new product or platform needs full regulatory treatment on day one. Pilot programs, safe harbors, and regulatory sandboxes can help innovators test ideas while maintaining appropriate guardrails.
  • Invest in Education and Training: SEC staff need better fluency in emerging technologies. Cross-disciplinary expertise should be rewarded and cultivated.

These are not radical ideas — they are proven tools drawn from the SEC’s own playbook.

In a global race to define the future of finance, the SEC has a choice: lead or fall behind. Its greatest strength has always been its credibility and ability to adapt.

The next generation of investors and entrepreneurs won’t wait around for 20th-century rules to catch up to 21st-century innovation. Nor should they have to. If the SEC wants to remain the gold standard, it must adapt once again — not just to the present, but to what comes next.

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Is ETH Still Special?

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We are never shy about holding ETH to account as crypto’s second largest asset and the DeFi intuition gateway for traditional investors. But mainstream adoption requires a growth story, and so far this year ETH is (put kindly) failing to lead.

ETH sits in 16th place in the CoinDesk 20 YTD performance leaderboard, down 53%. Going back a year, the numbers look similar: 15th place and down 50%. Its market cap has dwindled so much relative to XRP that both are expected to be capped in the upcoming CoinDesk 20 reconstitution, a first.

(CoinDesk Indices)

ETH’s woes are news to few in the industry, but for us as index and product builders for «5%-ers,» it begs the question: is ETH still special? A distinguished provenance can only take you so far. ETH continues to dominate its on-chain categories (even before adding in L2s) and is arguably the second best brand name in crypto. There are even thoughtful ideas about ETH’s end-state as an essential supporting component of our blockchain future; we hear expressions like, «Ethereum will be the clearinghouse of DeFi.»

But mainstream adoption requires a growth story.

We have observed over the last few weeks that bitcoin has shown impressive resilience to fragile global markets. This past week was no exception, and as we pointed out last week, expectations for higher inflation – now echoed by Fed Chair Powell – could help support movement into bitcoin.

But the crypto market’s dependency on bitcoin to lead prices higher is one we hope the digital asset class outgrows. ETH can reassert a leadership position, as it briefly did in the weeks following the U.S. election. If not, CoinDesk 20 investors have exposure to much of ETH’s competition.

CoinDesk IndicesEther dominates DeFi

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GSR Anchors $100M Investment in Upexi to Purchase SOL, Stock Rockets 700%

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Crypto trading firm GSR led a $100 million private placement into Upexi (UPXI), a consumer-goods company pivoting to a digital asset-based treasury strategy.

The company, whose products include medicinal mushroom gummies and pet-grooming tools, said it will use the capital to accumulate and stake solana (SOL) tokens. The Tampa, Florida-based company had a market cap of $3 million on Friday.

The investment, structured as a private investment in public equity (PIPE), comes as Upexi shifts from physical product manufacturing to managing part of its balance sheet using Solana, a high-speed blockchain known for low fees and fast settlement, according to a press release.

The investment announcement sent Upexi’s stock soaring more than 700%, from around $2.30 to $19 at the time of writing.

Upexi stock price. (TradingView)

GSR’s involvement points to a growing overlap between public markets and blockchain finance.

“This investment highlights the growing demand for efficient, secure access to high-quality crypto assets in public markets” Brian Rudick, GSR’s head of research, said in a statement.

Solana Foundation president Lily Liu said the deal marked another step in connecting traditional financial firms with decentralized infrastructure.

The move “underscores GSR’s confidence in Solana as a leading high-performance blockchain,” the finance company said in a release.

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