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Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

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It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.

McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.

Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.

Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.

McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with $54 million in volume) during the last election to show that longer-term Polymarket markets often include obviously predictable outcomes, like Newsom clearly not winning, which boosts the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long-term predictions.

In contrast, head-to-head sports markets, which have fewer extreme outcomes such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, present a clearer representation of predictive accuracy, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in accuracy as events unfold and revealing periodic accuracy spikes.

Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on the outcomes of the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data portal Polymarket Analytics.

McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of Polymarket are likely to be of interest in Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that new Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what poll aggregators are showing.

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Ether Surges 8%, Bitcoin Nears $106K as Crypto Bulls Take Charge

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Crypto markets extended their climb with ether (ETH) jumping 8% and bitcoin (BTC) inching back toward the $106,000 mark in the past 24 hours, despite broader risk-off sentiment in equities and gold.

The resilience is in contrast to Friday’s surprise credit downgrade of the U.S. by Moody’s, which cited persistent fiscal deficits and political gridlock. Yet while equities sagged and gold extended its recent decline, falling nearly 7% from May highs, bitcoin held ground and even rallied briefly to $107,000 late Sunday before retracing.

“Bitcoin’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s downgrade reinforces its positioning as a legitimate store of value,” QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast late Monday.

The firm pointed to consistent inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional demand as catalysts, even as derivatives markets saw some leveraged long liquidations.

Ether was among the standout movers, surging past $2,900 in a strong follow-through move from last week’s breakout. The token’s recent strength has been tied to renewed interest in Ethereum staking flows and positive sentiment following the Pectra upgrade — though no new headline catalyst emerged on Monday.

Solana’s SOL, XRP, BNB Chain’s BNB and dogecoin (DOGE) rose between 2-4%, with the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) adding just under 2% in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Aave’s AAVE tokens soared over 25% in the past 24 hours, though the move appeared largely speculative. No protocol-level announcement or governance proposal was immediately tied to the jump. The token is still down over 60% from its 2021 highs.

Traders say the decoupling between bitcoin and traditional “hard assets” like gold is worth watching.

“Unlike in previous months where BTC and gold went up in unison, bitcoin has been rising against a drop in spot gold, which is also reflected in ETF flows,” Augustine Fan of SignalPlus said in a message to CoinDesk.

“Gold ETFs saw a notable drop in flows against a small rise in BTC ETFs, with a similar pattern in gold vs BTC futures on CME. We should assume more of these micro-correlation breaks and relative value opportunities to take hold,” Fan ended.

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Nasdaq-Listed DigiAsia Plans to Raise $100M for Bitcoin Buys

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DigiAsia Corp (FAAS) plans to raise up to $100 million to seed a bitcoin treasury reserve (BTC), joining a growing list of publicly traded companies looking to diversify their corporate balance sheets with bitcoin.

The announcement on Monday (which emphasized plans rather than executed actions) helped push DigiAsia’s shares up 91% during regular trading to 36 cents, before pulling back 22% after hours. The stock is still down more than 50% year-to-date.

The company said its board had approved a strategy to allocate up to 50% of future net profits toward BTC purchases and was “actively exploring” a capital raise of up to $100 million, according to a press release.

It also plans to pursue yield-generating strategies on its bitcoin holdings, including institutional lending and staking through regulated partners.

“We believe bitcoin represents a compelling long-term investment and a foundational layer for modern treasury diversification,” said Prashant Gokarn, Co-CEO of DigiAsia, in the release.

The firm added that it was evaluating financing methods such as convertible notes and crypto-linked instruments to support the initiative.

In an April update, DigiAsia reported $101 million in revenue for 2024, with projected earnings before interest and taxes of $12 million this year. Whether DigiAsia follows through on its BTC purchases remains to be seen. But the signal alone has been enough to give the fintech a short-term boost on Wall Street.

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XRP Futures Rack Up $1.5M Trading Volumes on CME Debut

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XRP futures contracts began trading on CME Group’s derivatives platform on May 19, recording at least $1.5 million in trading volume during the first session, a modest but notable debut for the major token.

CME data shows 4 standard contracts (each representing 50,000 XRP) traded on day one, totaling around $480,000 in notional volume at an average price of $2.40. The majority of activity came from 106 micro contracts (2,500 XRP each), accounting for over $1 million in additional volume.

The contracts are cash-settled and benchmarked to the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which is published daily at 4:00 P.M. London time. CME’s dual contract structure is designed to attract both institutional players and smaller participants, offering flexibility for various hedging and trading strategies.

«The launch of regulated XRP Futures on @CMEGroup marks a key institutional milestone for XRP,» Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on X on Monday. He added that Hidden Road executed the first block trade.

The listing follows the CFTC’s classification of XRP as a commodity, a regulatory green light that cleared the path for CME to offer these products.

Analysts say the debut could also strengthen the case for a spot XRP ETF, with ETF Store president Nate Geraci saying such a product is “only a matter of time.”

While early volumes may appear modest, XRP’s inclusion on CME widens market dynamics for the major token in terms of price discovery, similar to how price-action on BTC and ETH futures is impacted when the U.S. market opens.

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