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Paul Veradittakit: 8 Predictions For Crypto in 2025

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6 месяцев ago

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Every year, bulls and bears use short-term case studies to forecast crypto armageddon or exponential growth. And every year, neither group is right.

Some notable events this year: Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade, the U.S. election, crypto ETFs, Wyoming’s DUNA, the wBTC controversy, Robinhood’s Well’s notice, Hyperliquid’s near $2 billion airdrop, Bitcoin hitting $100,000, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s January resignation announcement.

2024 was a year with no major market shocks. And, though it didn’t bring in an explosion of new capital, it proved that a growing number of companies in the crypto ecosystem are sustainable. Bitcoin is worth $1.9 trillion and all other cryptos are worth $1.6 trillion. The market cap of all crypto has doubled since the start of 2024.

The diversification of crypto has strengthened its ability to react to shocks. Payments, DeFi, gaming, ZK, infrastructure, consumer, and more, are all growing sub-sections. Each of these now have their own funding ecosystems, their own markets, their own incentives, and their own bottlenecks.

This year, at Pantera, we’ve invested in companies that target these ecosystem-specific problems. Crypto gaming companies face issues adopting Web3 data analysis tools, so we invested in Helika, a gaming analysis platform. Web3 AI products often face adoption challenges because of the fragmentation of the AI stack, so Sahara AI aims to create an all-in-one platform to allow permissionless contribution while keeping a seamless Web2-like user experience.

Intent infrastructure is messy and orderflow is fragmented, so Everclear standardizes the process by connecting all stakeholders. zkVM’s are complicated to integrate, so Nexus uses modularity in order to cater to customers who want only parts of their hyper-scalable layer. Building consumer apps faces the issue of attracting users, so we made our largest ever investment in TON, the blockchain that directly plugs into Telegram’s 950 million monthly active users.

We enter 2025 on tailwinds of possible regulatory clarity, continued mainstream interest, and rising crypto prices. Even after a bit of a summer slump this year, crypto users are entering the new year with strong optimism (or “greed”).

Review of 2024 Predictions:

Before we dive into 2025 predictions, let’s take a look back at how I did predicting 2024. I’ll score myself with 1 being the least accurate and 5 being the most accurate.

The resurgence of Bitcoin and “DeFi Summer 2.0.” Accuracy: 4/5

Tokenized social experiences for new consumer use cases. Accuracy: 2/5

An increase in TradFi-DeFi “bridges” such as stablecoins and mirrored assets. Accuracy: 5/5

The cross-pollination of modular blockchains and Zero Knowledge Proofs. Accuracy: 4/5

More computationally intensive applications moving on-chain, such as AI and DePIN. Accuracy: 2/5

Consolidation of public blockchain ecosystems and a “Hub-and-Spoke” model for app-chains. Accuracy: 2/5

2025 Predictions

This year, I enlisted the help of investors on the Pantera team. I’ve split my predictions into two categories: rising trends and new ideas.

Rising Trends:

By year-end, RWAs (excluding stablecoins) will account for 30% of on chain TVL (15% today)
RWAs on-chain has increased over 60% this year, to $13.7 billion. Around 70% of RWAs are private credit and the majority of the rest are in T-Bills and commodities. Inflows from these categories are accelerating, and 2025 may see the introduction of more complex RWAs.

Firstly, private credit is accelerating because of improving infrastructure. Figure accounts for almost all of this, increasing by almost $4 billion worth of assets in 2024. As more companies enter this space, there is increasing ease to use private credit as a means to move money into crypto.

Secondly, there are trillions of dollars worth of T-Bills and commodities off-chain. There is only $2.67 billion worth of T-Bills on-chain, and their ability to generate yield (as opposed to stablecoins, which allow the ones who mint the coin to capture the interest), makes it a more attractive alternative to stablecoins. Blackrock’s BUIDL T-Bill fund only has $500 million on-chain, as opposed to the tens of billions of government bills it owns off-chain. Now that DeFi infrastructure has thoroughly embraced stablecoins and T-Bill RWAs (integrating them into DeFi pools, lending markets, and perps), the friction to adopt them has drastically decreased. The same goes for commodities.

Finally, the current extent of RWAs is limited to these basic products. The infrastructure to mint and maintain the RWA protocols has drastically simplified and operators have a much better understanding of the risks and appropriate mitigations that come with on-chain operations. There are specialized companies that manage wallets, minting mechanisms, sybil sensing, crypto neo-banks, and more, meaning it may finally be possible and feasible to introduce stocks, ETFs, bonds, and other more complex financial products on-chain. These trends will only accelerate the use of RWA’s heading into 2025.

Bitcoin-Fi
Last year, my prediction of Bitcoin finance was strong but didn’t reach the 1-2% of all Bitcoins TVL mark. This year, pushed by Bitcoin-native finance protocols that do not require bridging (like Babylon), high returns, high Bitcoin prices, and increased appetite for more BTC assets (runes, Ordinals, BRC20), 1% of Bitcoins will participate in Bitcoin-Fi.

Fintechs become crypto gateways
TON, Venmo, Paypal, Whatsapp have seen crypto growth because of their neutrality. They are gateways where users can interact with crypto, but do not push specific apps or protocols; in effect, they can act as simplified entryways into crypto. They attract different users; TON for its existing 950 million Telegram users, Venmo and Paypal for their respective 500 million payments users, and Whatsapp for its 2.95 billion monthly active users.

Felix, which operates on Whatsapp, allows instant money transfers via a message, to be either digitally transferred or can be picked up in cash at partner locations (like 7-Eleven). Under the hood, they use stablecoins and Bitso on Stellar. Users can now buy crypto on Metamask using Venmo, Stripe acquired Bridge (a stablecoin company), and Robinhood acquired Bitstamp (a crypto exchange).

Whether intentionally or because of their ability to support third-party apps, every fintech will become a crypto gateway. Fintechs will grow in prevalence and may perhaps rival smaller centralized exchanges in crypto holdings.

Unichain becomes leading L2 by transaction volume
Uniswap has a TVL of almost $6.5b, 50-80k transactions per day, and volume of $1-4 billion daily. Arbitrum has ~$1.4 billion of transaction volume a day (a third of which is Uniswap) and Base has ~$1.5 billion of volume a day (a fourth of which is Uniswap).

If Unichain captures just half of Uniswap’s volume, it would easily surpass the largest L2s to become the leading L2 by transaction volume.

NFT resurgence but in a application specific way
NFTs were meant as a tool in crypto — not a means to an end. NFT’s are being used as a utility in on-chain gaming, AI (to trade ownership of models), identity, and consumer apps.

Blackbird is a restaurant rewards app that integrates NFTs into customer identification in their platform of connecting Web3 into dining. By integrating the open, liquid, and identifiable blockchain with restaurants, they can provide consumer behavior data to restaurants, and easily create/mint subscriptions, memberships, and discounts for customers.

Sofamon creates web3 bitmoji’s (which are NFTs), called wearables, unlocking the financial layer of the emoji market. They recognize the increasing relevance of IP on chain and embrace collaboration with top KOL’s and K-pop stars, for example, to fight digital counterfeiting. Story Protocol, which recently raised $80 million at a $2.25 billion valuation, has the broader goal of tokenizing the world’s IP, putting originality back as the centerpiece of creative exploration and creators. IWC (the Swiss luxury watch brand) has a membership NFT that buys access to an exclusive community and events.

NFTs can be integrated to ID transactions, transfers, ownership, memberships, but can also be used to represent and value assets, leading to monetary, possibly speculative growth. This flexibility is what brings NFTs power. The use-cases will only increase.

Restaking launches
In 2025, restaking protocols like Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak will finally launch their mainnets which would pay operators from AVS and slashing. It seems that through this year, restaking lost relevance.

Restaking draws power as more networks use it. If protocols use infra that is powered by a particular restaking protocol, it derives value from that connection, even if it is not direct. It is by this power that protocols can lose relevance but still hold huge valuations. We believe restaking is still a multi billion dollar market and as more apps become appchains, they harness restaking protocols, or other protocols that are built on restaking protocols.

New Ideas:

zkTLS bringing offchain data on-chain
zkTLS uses zero knowledge proofs to prove the validity of data from the Web2 world. This new technology has yet to be fully implemented, but when it (hopefully) does this year, it will bring in new types of data.

For example, zkTLS can be used to prove that data came from a certain website to others. Currently, there is no way to do this. This tech takes advantage of advancements made in TEE’s and MPC’s, and may be further improved to allow some of the data to be private.

This is a new idea, but we predict that companies will step up to begin building this and integrating it into on-chain services, like verifiable oracles for non-financial data or cryptographically secured data oracles.

Regulatory support
For the first time, the U.S. regulatory environment seems crypto-positive. 278 pro-crypto house candidates were elected versus 122 anti-crypto candidates. Gary Gensler, an anti-crypto SEC chair, announced that he will be resigning in January. Reportedly, Trump is set to nominate Paul Atkins to lead the SEC. He was previously an SEC Commissioner from 2002-2008 and is outspokenly supportive of the crypto industry and an advisor to the Chamber of Digital Commerce, an institution focused on promoting the acceptance of crypto. Trump also named David Sacks, a tech investor and former CEO of Yammer and COO of PayPal, to head the new role of “AI & crypto czar.” Trump’s announcement said that “[David Sacks] will work on a legal framework so the Crypto industry has the clarity it has been asking for.”

We hope for a winding down of SEC lawsuits, clear definitions of crypto as a particular asset class, and tax considerations.

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OpenLedger Commits $25M to Fund AI Blockchain Startups

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2 часа ago

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9 июня, 2025

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Blockchain protocol OpenLedger said it will commit $25 million to fund AI and Web3 developers.

The capital will be available on OpenCircle, a new launchpad set up by the California-based project to assist developers with creating AI-focused protocols.

The funding comes at a time of increased intersection between the blockchain and AI industries. Telegram last month announced a deal with Elon Musk’s xAI to incorporate the Grok AI chatbot on the messaging app, with the app also accepting the TON token for crypto payments.

“AI is currently an extractive economy, profiting from invisible labor and centralized training pipelines,” said Ram, a core contributor at OpenLedger. “OpenCircle turns that model inside out. We’re building a system where anyone who contributes, whether through code, data, or compute, owns a piece of the value they help create.”

OpenLedger raised $8 million in a seed round in 2024 as it looked to become the «sovereign data blockchain for AI technology.» The company also signed a deal with restaking protocol Ether.fi to enhance AI model development and security, Ether.fi has $6.5 billion in total value locked (TVL).

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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Options Point to Gains as Bullish Flow Builds Ahead of CPI Data

Published

2 часа ago

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9 июня, 2025

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC rose over the weekend, offering a reprieve after a week of market jitters. It is now trading around $106,600 after gaining 1.2% in the past 24 hours, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index added nearly 1.7%.

The recovery appeared driven less by headlines and more their absence, marking a shift from the public feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk that rattled investors. As tensions cooled, markets recovered.

Even developments that might be seen as negative did not appear to sway markets. These include Taiwan-based crypto exchange BitoPro confirming being hacked, and data from Blockchain.com showing a slowdown in BTC’s network activity to the lowest level in a year.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index jumped 1.6% as traders reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump expressing optimism for talks with China in London that start today, saying the meeting “should go very well.”

Still, concerns are mounting over deflation in China. Consumer prices fell 0.1% year-over-year in May and factory gate prices dropped 3.3%, the steepest decline since October 2022.

The People’s Bank of China has already responded by trimming interest rates, reducing reserve requirements, and injecting liquidity into the market. That may eventually benefit cryptocurrencies, which often trade in tandem with liquidity conditions in traditional markets.

All that may recede in importance on Wednesday, when the U.S. announces the latest inflation figures. May’s consumer price index report is expected to show a rise in core inflation to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in April.

A stronger-than-expected reading could delay the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut and inject volatility across financial markets.

In a note published Monday, Spanish bank Bankinter warned that rising inflation and U.S. bond yields could pressure equity valuations and weaken the «fear of missing out» momentum that’s been propping up global stocks and other risk assets.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has already climbed to 4.5%, a level that could begin to weigh on market sentiment if inflation surprises to the upside. Crypto markets, for now, are caught in the crossfire. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on «DeFi and the American Spirit»
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
    • June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol.
    • June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
    • June 16: Brazil’s B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices.
  • Macro
    • June 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases May consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.49%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.93%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.93%
    • June 10, 2 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases April employment data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.6% vs. Prev. 4.5%
      • Employment Change Prev. 112K
    • June 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.43%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 5.53%
    • June 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases May consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $53.61 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.82 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $16.90 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.59 million.
    • June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $32.21 million.
    • June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $41.25 million.
    • June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $10.88 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 9: Skate (SKATE) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, MEXC,KuCoin, Bitget and others.
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

  • Skate, a blockchain infrastructure layer focused on unifying liquidity across decentralized networks, is introducing its SKATE token today.
  • The Token Generation Event (TGE) marks the public debut of the token, with listings on Binance Alpha, Bybit and MEXC.
  • Formerly known as Range Protocol, Skate is building a framework that allows decentralized applications (dapps) to run across multiple virtual machines like Ethereum, Solana and TON without needing separate deployments.
  • The token lies at the heart of the system, supporting governance, staking and liquidity provision through the network’s automated market maker (AMM).
  • Out of a fixed 1 billion token supply, 10% is being distributed via airdrops to early users, ecosystem contributors and NFT campaign participants. Claiming and staking the tokens immediately may boost rewards by 30%.
  • MEXC’s pre-market trading started on June 4, with prices initially jumping 33% to $0.20 before dropping back down to $0.12 at the time of writing.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC options open interest on Deribit is $32.9B, with calls significantly outweighing puts at 200,000 contracts versus 110,000.
  • The put/call volume ratio stands at 0.54, indicating continued demand for upside exposure. The $140K strike leads all others with 16,100 calls open, representing $1.79B in notional value.
  • The 27 June expiry is the main focal point, accounting for $13.1B in notional open interest or 41% of the total. Daily notional flow is highest at this expiry with $206M traded, followed by $194M at the 13 June expiry.
  • Monday flow data from Deribit shows 31% of contracts were calls bought and 17% were puts bought. The rest of the activity came from call and put selling, suggesting traders are combining bullish positioning with yield strategies at higher strikes.
  • Coinglass liquidation heatmaps show high concentrations of long leverage near $104K and $107K. A total of $39M in liquidation leverage is stacked around $104.7K, making it a key downside level to watch for potential forced selling.
  • Funding rates from Velo are steady, with BTC annualized funding holding near 6.2%. This reflects a moderately bullish stance, with no signs of excessive leverage in perpetual markets.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $106,743.74 (24hrs: +1.19%)
  • ETH is up 0.5% at $2,514.74 (24hrs: +0.29%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.18% at 3,088.96 (24hrs: +1.36%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 18 bps at 2.94%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.006% (6.5667% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.31% at 98.89
  • Gold futures are down 0.16% at $3,341.10
  • Silver futures are up 0.87% at $36.46
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.92% at 38,088.57
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.63% at 24,181.43
  • FTSE is down 0.11% at 8,827.95
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,418.96
  • DJIA closed on Friday up 1.05% at 42,762.87
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.03% at 6,000.36
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.20% at 19,529.95
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.33% at 26,429.13
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.36% at 2,584.58
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.49%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,011.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,784.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 42,840.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.7 (+0.19%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02355 (-0.80%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 872 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.77
  • Total Fees: 3.17 BTC / $335,041
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 148,080
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.01%

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis for June 9, 2025

  • Bitcoin has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily timeframe after retesting the 50-day EMA for the first time since its breakout from $85,000. Price action has broken out of the downward trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
  • However, it remains within a key daily order block, which may act as resistance.
  • For a bullish continuation, it’s crucial for the BTC price to hold above these reclaimed EMAs and secure a weekly close above $109,400, which would invalidate the current weekly swing failure pattern and confirm the cryptocurrency’s strength.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $374.47 (+1.54%), +1.87% at $381.49 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $251.27 (+2.9%), +1.52% at $255.10
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $107.7 (+29.4%), +10.21% at $118.50
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.4 (+4.9%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.78 (+6.05%), +2.47% at $16.17
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.85 (+9.57%), +2.94% at $10.14
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.19 (+2.18%), +0.9% at $12.30
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.79 (+8.54%), +2.66% at 10.05
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.57 (+7.53%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.98 (+1.04%), +1.49% at $33.47
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.86 (+10.45%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$47.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.22 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.2 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $25.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.35 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~3.77 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day June 9

  • The chart shows spot ether ETFs in the U.S. have now recorded 15 consecutive days of positive net flows.
  • These flows follow Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and as the ETH/BTC ratio recovers from a more than five-year low below 0.02.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

For anyone concernedDo you guys need help?After both committees complete their markups on Tuesday, the two versions will be combined back into one bill.Gold on track for an inflow of $75 Billion this year, the largest in history

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Solana Holds Above $152 as Second Round of US-China Talks Raise Hopes for Market Calm

Published

3 часа ago

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9 июня, 2025

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Solana’s SOL SOL posted a solid recovery over the past 24 hours, rising as much as 4.83% before retreating to trade around $152.16. While volatility remains elevated, the cryptocurrency has formed a pattern of higher lows, suggesting underlying strength amid a fragile macro backdrop.

The broader market remains focused on renewed trade talks between the United States and China, which kicked off Monday in London. The meetings bring together top officials, including U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, to address longstanding tensions over tariffs and tech restrictions.

While the two sides struck a temporary truce last month, both have since accused each other of backsliding. Analysts say the rare earth export curbs and AI chip controls remain key sticking points that could influence global market sentiment—including for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Amid this uncertainty, Solana’s network continues to show expansion potential, with some institutions projecting price targets as high as $420–$620 in 2026. In the near term, traders will likely watch how macro developments affect appetite for risk-on trades in assets like SOL.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • SOL rose from $148.08 to $155.24 (4.83% range) before retracing
  • Price formed a clean uptrend channel from 09:00–21:00 on June 8
  • High-volume support established at $152.03, resistance at $154.79
  • Price stabilized near $150.91 after the correction
  • Uptrend channel resumed early June 9, with strong volume at 07:59 (54,590 units) and 08:02 (23,396 units)
  • Resistance was breached at $150.85, followed by sideways consolidation
  • Price recovered from $150.53 to $150.98 in the last hourly candle, signaling renewed strength

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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