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Much-Awaited Fed Rate Cut May Not Come Before Q4, ING Says

The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates any time soon, but when it does, the easing could be aggressive, according to Dutch investment bank ING.
On Wednesday, the Fed kept the benchmark rate on hold between 4.25% and 4.5%, with Chairman Jerome Powell raising the specter of stagflation during the press conference following the announcement.
Both crypto and traditional markets looked to Powell for cues on a potential rate cut in June. ING points to his comments that «uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased» and the «risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen» as evidence the wait-and-watch mode could last for a couple more meetings.
The comments suggest «little inclination to move until they are confident of the direction the data is heading, meaning rate cuts could be delayed, but risk being sharper when they come,» ING said in a note to clients.
The investment bank said the wait-and-see stance could «persist through to September.»
The bank the Fed’s reticence to act is probably due to concerns that trade war and supply disruptions at ports and logistics firms could amplify inflation.
Bitcoin has rallied from $96,000 to $99,5000 since Wednesday’s Fed decision, with President Donald Trump’s tease of a trade deal with a major economy helping restore the risk sentiment.
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Senate Votes Against Advancing Stablecoin Bill, Delaying Process as Trump Concerns Fester

The U.S. legislation that would establish stablecoin regulation failed to take a huge step closer to reality on Thursday as a rush of Democratic resistance kept the bill from moving into a debate phase, which would have been the path toward an eventual vote on passage.
The crypto industry has been closely watching the Senate, where the fate of its long-fought legislative battle hangs in the balance this year. The first of two major digital assets bills — this one to regulate stablecoins such as Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDT — ran into a congressional roadblock, despite having easily won bipartisan approval in a previous Senate Banking Committee vote.
A technical but vital vote to advance the legislation into days of floor debate next week, failed 48-49. Under Senate rules, 60 votes were needed to advance debate. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul broke ranks with their fellow Republicans to vote against advancing the legislation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune flipped his vote to no as well at the end of the vote series in a procedural move to bring the legislation back at a future date.
Some Democrats who had previously spoken in favor of the effort turned against it in recent days, saying the stablecoin regime needed more safeguards against illicit behavior, most notably singling out the crypto business ties of President Donald Trump as a potential conflict of interest that was flagged by many of them as corruption.
Senator Ruben Gallego, who received $10 million in backing from the crypto industry’s political action committees during the 2024 election, was among them, and he said on the Senate floor before the vote, «I believe there is a pathway for us to actually get this done, get good language, have a bipartisan win for this country.»But he said the hard work and «good faith» that’s gone into the bill so far should be paused.
«The reason you’re hearing some hesitancy: The legislation of this scope and importance really cannot be rushed, and we need time,» he said, adding that he’s not seeking to shut the process down. «We want to bring this economy and this innovation to the United States.»
Gallego asked for Republicans to agree to hold off on the vote until at least Monday to give lawmakers time to «educate» the bill’s opponents on the legislative text — which hadn’t been finalized at the time the vote began.
Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, echoed that he hopes debate can still happen as early as next week, noting that «stablecoins are undeniably a part of the future of finance,» but he argued the «text isn’t yet finished» and needs to provide Americans more protections.
Republicans, including Majority Leader John Thune, had encouraged the Senate to press forward to an open debate, where changes could still be made.
«We must grab the reins and ensure that all Americans are able to take charge of their financial future,» said Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who leads a crypto subcommittee in the Senate. She said before the vote that senators’ staffs have «been working for days recently — days — to bring this bill to the floor» and have already taken many amendments from Democrats.
«This is a bipartisan bill and had bipartisan process from the very beginning,» Thune said in remarks after the vote in which he said Democrats refused to begin the debate the Senate has been building toward. «Democrats have been accommodated every step of the way,» he added, noting this is now the sixth version of the legislation.
«I just don’t get it,» he said. The plan now is to «bring this legislation up again if and when Democrats are ready to get serious. Clearly today they are not.»
Senator Bill Hagerty, who introduced the bill in the first place, went further, saying lawmakers voting against opening debate were actually voting to «kill the crypto industry here in America.»
Read More: Senate Republicans Making Plea to Get on With Stablecoin Debate
UPDATE (May 8, 2025, 18:55 UTC): Adds remarks from Majority Leader John Thune.
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Bitcoin $120K Target for 2Q May Be Too Conservative: Standard Chartered

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to hit a new record high, with investment flows now the dominant market driver, according to Standard Chartered (STAN).
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $5.3 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, the investment bank said in emailed comments Thursday.
Adjusting for hedge fund basis trades, net real flow is estimated at over $4 billion, the bank said. The basis trade is a strategy that exploits the difference between the spot price of bitcoin and the price of the cryptocurrency in the futures market.
Strategy (MSTR) has increased its holdings to 555,450 BTC, or 2.6% of total future supply, which is locked at 21 million BTC. The company’s plan to raise $84 billion to buy more of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could bring its stash to over 6%, wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
Next week’s 13F filings may reveal further institutional adoption, Standard Chartered said. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund already holds BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank have disclosed positions in MSTR.
New Hampshire passed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill this week, the first U.S. state to do so, which signals growing policy alignment, the report added.
Given these developments, a second-quarter bitcoin target of $120,000 may be too conservative, the bank said, citing its previous forecast.
The bank has a year-end bitcoin price target of $200,000.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $101,000 at publication time.
Read more: Bitcoin to Hit New All-Time High Around $120K in Q2, Standard Chartered Says
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Bitcoin Tops $100K for First Time in 3 Months; Are Upside Targets Too Low?

Bitcoin is back in six figures, continuing yet another of its famous zigs when most were expecting a zag.
To review, the world’s largest crypto first pushed through $100,000 in December as it rallied hard following Donald Trump’s November election victory. The price eventually rose above $109,000 in the hours prior to the Trump inauguration on Jan. 20.
With the bulls furiously revising their upside price targets higher, things began to crack at that moment. What followed in ensuing weeks was a steady decline, which reached its denouement at just under $75,000 in the panic following Trump’s early April announcements of punitive tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
The carnage in many altcions was far worse. Solana (SOL) and ether (ETH), for instance, had peak to bottom declines of more than 60%.
Prices have quickly reversed since, though, with traditional markets joining crypto in looking past the tariff shock. As with bitcoin, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both currently at higher levels than prior to Trump’s Liberation Day.
This latest push to above $100,000 appears to be due to a trade deal between the U.S. and UK.
It’s all about the flows
«The dominant story for bitcoin has changed again,» wrote Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick in a note Thursday morning. «It is now all about flows. And flows are coming in many forms.»
Kendrick took note of the well-reported story about surging inflows into the spot bitcoin ETFs of late. These are sometimes dismissed thanks to a sizable chunk of those flows being offset by basis trades (where hedge funds put on an equal short of bitcoin futures and bank a small yield). Kendrick, however, argued that basis trades have barely moved higher during this latest bout of inflows, suggesting real money is moving into the ETFs.
The 13F institutional reporting of not just spot BTC ETF holdings, but also ownership of major corporate bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR) will begin rolling in one week from now, and Kendrick expects further confirmation of important players boosting their allocations.
«I apologize that my $120,000 second quarter target may be too low,» concluded Kendrick.
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