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MicroStrategy’s Dismal December Still Keeps It at Top of 2024 Bitcoin-Tied Asset Rankings

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Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR)

It’s been a tough month for MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software developer turned bitcoin (BTC) accumulator. Its stock has tumbled almost 50% since November, when it joined the Nasdaq 100 index and peaked at a 600% gain since the start of the year.

That still leaves the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company a whopping 342% ahead in 2024, the biggest return among the highest-profile crypto-linked assets in traditional finance (TradFi).

It’s been a volatile year, packed with geopolitical and technological developments to rattle financial markets. The continuing wars in eastern Europe and the Middle East, elections across the globe, the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) have all left their marks.

MicroStrategy’s gain is almost double that of Nvidia (NVDA), the chipmaker whose production of integrated circuits needed for AI applications fueled a 185% return, the best among the so-called magnificent seven tech stocks. The next best, Meta Platforms (META), turned in 71%.

Bitcoin itself rose 100% in a year that included April’s reward halving and multiple record highs. Demand for the largest cryptocurrency was driven by the January approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. Bitcoin outperformed two of its biggest competitors, ether (ETH), up 42%, and Solana (SOL), up 79%.

Among the ETF’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also returned over 100% and became the fastest ETF in history to hit $50 billion in assets.

Bitcoin mining companies, on the whole, disappointed. Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), a proxy for mining stocks, rose just under 30%. That’s despite demand for the miners’ computing capabilities and power supply agreements from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) companies. Still, individual companies benefited, in particular, Bitdeer (BTDR),which added 151%, and WULF (WULF), which gained 131%.

Nevertheless, the miners’ gains beat the broader equities market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) added 28% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 25%. The S&P 500 also trailed behind gold’s 27% increase. The precious commodity has now topped the equity gauge in three of the past five years.

Concerns about U.S. inflation and the country’s budget deficit added to the geopolitical uncertainties to prompt a massive rise in U.S. treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to price.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury added 15% to 4.5% over the course of the year, and surprisingly gained a full 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks bond prices, dropped 10% this year and has lost 40% in the past five years.

The dollar, on the other hand, showed its strength. The DXY Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of the currencies of the U.S.’ biggest trading partners, rose to the highest since September 2022.

West Texas Intermediate (USOIL), the benchmark oil price in the U.S., ends the year little changed, up less than 1% to around $71 a barrel. But it was a bumpy ride, with the price rising to almost $90 at some points in the past 12 months.

As we head into the new year, all eyes will be on the debt ceiling discussion, the policies of President-elect Donald Trump and whether the U.S. can continue with its impressive growth story.

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U.S. Law Enforcement Seizes $31M in Crypto Tied to Uranium Finance Hack

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U.S. authorities have seized about $31 million in crypto tied to the 2021 hack of Uranium Finance, according to a Monday X post from the Southern District of New York (SDNY).

According to the post, the seizure was the result of a joint effort between SDNY and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in San Diego. A spokesperson for SDNY did not return CoinDesk’s request for comment before press time, and no further details about the seizure or any related investigation were immediately available.

Uranium Finance was essentially a clone of automated market maker (AMM) Uniswap deployed on Binance’s BNB chain (then called Binance Smart Chain). In April 2021, a hacker exploited a bug in Uranium’s pair contracts to steal $50 million in various tokens. At the time of the incident, the Uranium Finance hack was one of the largest monetary exploits in decentralized finance (DeFi) history.

Read more: Binance Chain DeFi Exchange Uranium Finance Loses $50M in Exploit

After the exploit, the hacker attempted to launder a portion of the funds in a variety of ways, including using crypto mixer Tornado Cash, depositing small amounts of crypto into centralized exchanges, and, according to blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, perhaps through purchasing rare and highly valuable Magic: The Gathering trading cards.

Uranium Finance shuttered after the hack, leaving victims without answers or financial restitution. The partial recovery, which comes nearly four years after the initial attack, offers the first glimmer of hope for victims to see some of their money returned.

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Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade Goes Live on ‘Holesky’ Testnet, But Fails to Finalize

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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the Holesky testnet on Monday but failed to finalize in the expected time.

Pectra was activated on the Holesky testnet at 21:55 UTC (4:55 p.m. ET), but did not initially finalize according to blockchain data.

Finality is the state in which, once a transaction is confirmed and added to a block, it is immutable and cannot be reversed. A testnet is a network that copies a main blockchain (in this case Ethereum), and is used to test upgrades or new code before it goes to the main network.

It is not immediately clear why the Pectra upgrade did not finalize on Holesky. Ethereum developers were discussing Monday over the Eth R&D Discord channel what the issue could be.

This is not the first time an upgrade has not finalized on an Etheruem test network. In January 2024, when the developers were testing the Dencun upgrade, the hard fork did not initially finalize on the Goerli testnet.

What is Pectra?

The Pectra hard fork combines together 11 major upgrades, or «Ethereum improvement proposals» (EIPs), into one package. At the heart of this is EIP-7702, which is supposed to improve the user-experience of crypto wallets. The proposal, which was scribbled by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in just 22 minutes, will allow wallets to have some smart contract capabilities, as part of a broader strategy to bring account abstraction to Ethereum — a concept that makes the usability of wallets a lot less clunky.

Another key proposal, EIP-7251, will allow validators to increase the maximum amount they can stake from 32 to 2,048 ETH. The proposal is supposed to ease some of the technicalities that validators who stake ETH face today: Those that stake more than their 32 ETH have to spread that across multiple validators, making the process a bit of a nuisance. By lifting the maximum stake limit and combining those validators, it could speed up the process of setting up new nodes.

Holesky is the first of two testnets to run through a simulation of Pectra. The next test is supposed to occur on the Sepolia testnet on Mar. 5. But according to Christine Kim, a Vice President of Research at Galaxy, developers could delay it depending on the scale of today’s issue.

After Pectra goes live on both testnets, developers will ink in a final date to activate the upgrade on mainnet.

Pectra was originally on track to be Ethereum’s biggest upgrade to date, and it’s the first big change to the blockchain in almost a year. Developers decided that Pectra was too ambitious, and they agreed to split the original package into two.

Read more: Ethereum Developers Finally Schedule ‘Pectra’ Upgrade

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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters

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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.

Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.

Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.

The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.

“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.

Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.

Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.

“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.

“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”

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