Haliey Welch, better known as “Hawk Tuah Girl,” is now distancing herself from last December’s failed HAWK memecoin — despite previously calling it a fully compliant, fan-focused token she was proud to launch.

In a new episode of her Talk Tuah podcast, Welch claimed she was questioned by the FBI and handed over her phone to the SEC, but was ultimately “cleared” of wrongdoing.

“They went through my phone, so they cleared me. I was good to go,” she said. “I wish we knew then what we know now.” She also dodged direct responsibility, instead framing herself as an unwitting pawn: “I don’t have anything to hide.”

But Welch’s latest comments — claiming she didn’t understand crypto and felt “sick” that fans trusted her — stand in sharp contrast to her original announcement in November 2024.

At the time, Welch said she was “excited to be part of meme culture” and had “learned so much” while working with launch partners to bring $HAWK to life.

The token, which launched on Solana, briefly hit a $491 million market cap before plunging below $100 million in hours. Welch’s team claimed the project was legally compliant and backed by a Cayman foundation, and said her tokens would vest over three years.

Welch claims user losses are far lower

She went on to claim that while initially customer losses were estimated to be as high as $1.2 million, the real loss figure stands at $180,000.

However, there are still 10,149 token holders according to Solscan and many of those holders never sold thus losses were never realized. The $180,000 figure does not include those holders.

Commentators on her podcast aren’t buying the story.

“She admits that she didn’t know anything about it but decided to endorse it anyway and promote it?” one YouTube comment read. “You should have never attached yourself to something you didn’t understand,” another said.

HAWK prices are down 99% since its December peak, sitting at a tiny $104,000 market capitalization as of Tuesday morning.

Bitcoin BTC is trading above $100,000 again, and investors, prone to recency bias, may be quick to assume that this event will play out like it did in December-January, when the bull momentum faded, with prices quickly falling back into six figures, eventually dropping as low as $75,000.

However, according to the following six charts, the bitcoin market now appears sturdier than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continued move higher.

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10y, 30y yields vs BTC)

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar exchange rate and other factors.

Tighter financial conditions disincentivize risk-taking in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

As of writing, financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear much easier than in January, favoring a sustained move higher in BTC.

At press time, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against major currencies, stood at 99.60, down 9% from highs above 109.00 in January. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.52%, down 30 basis points from the high of 4.8% in January.

The 30-year yield has risen above 5%, revisiting levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.

More dry powder

The combined market capitalization of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record high of $151 billion. That’s nearly 9% higher than the average $139 billion in December-January, according to data source TradingView.

In other words, a greater amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Bold directional bets

BTC’s run higher from early April lows near $75,000 is characterized by institutions predominantly taking bullish directional bets rather than arbitrage bets.

That’s evident by the booming inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still subdued open interest in the CME BTC futures.

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in the CME bitcoin futures has jumped to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. Still, it remains well below the December high of $22.79 billion.

On the contrary, the cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42.7 billion versus $39.8 billion in January, according to data source Farside Investors.

No signs of speculative fervor

Historically, interim and major bitcoin tops, including the December-January one, have been characterized by speculative fervour in the broader market, leading to a sharp rise in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.

There are no such signs now, with the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB well below their January highs.

No signs of overheating

The bitcoin perpetual futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, understandably so, considering BTC is trading near record highs.

However, the overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excess leverage build-up or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates hovering well below highs seen in December.

The chart shows funding rates, which refer to the cost of holding perpetual futures bets. The positive figure indicates a bias for longs and willingness among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It’s a sign of bullish market sentiment.

Implied volatility suggests calm

The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time, with Deribit’s DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.

The low IV suggests traders are not pricing in the extreme price swings or uncertainty that typically exists in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable uptrend.

Strive Enterprises is eyeing a calculated bet on bitcoin BTC discounts. The Ohio-based financial services firm said it struck a strategic partnership with 117 Castell Advisory Group to buy distressed bitcoin claims, specifically those with confirmed legal judgments and pending distributions.

Among the targeted claims are holdings from the infamous Mt. Gox bankruptcy in 2014, which total around 75,000 BTC, currently valued around $8 billion. While payouts from the decade-old collapse of the Japanese exchange are still trickling out, they represent one of the largest pools of locked-up bitcoin in history.

Strive’s plan: gain BTC exposure at a discount, with the goal of beating BTC’s price performance in the long run, according to a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The announcement comes amid broader plans for the company’s asset management unit to merge with Nasdaq-listed Asset Entities (ASST), a move that would make the combined company publicly traded. The firm would leave its operations under the Strive name.

The combined company also has plans to raise up to $1 billion through equity and debt offerings to accumulate bitcoin. The firm’s strategies are meant to enhance its BTC exposure per share.