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Massive Bitcoin Bull Run Ahead? Two Chart Patterns Mirror BTC’s Rally to $109K

This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Crypto bears might want to closely watch bitcoin’s (BTC) recent chart patterns, which mirror those that preceded the late 2024 rally from $70,000 to $109,000.
The first pattern involves the weekly chart’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a momentum indicator used to identify trend changes and reversals. MACD crossovers above or below the zero line typically signal bullish or bearish shifts in momentum.
However, traders interpret these signals in context with price action. A bearish crossover, for example, needs validation through weakening prices; otherwise, it could indicate underlying strength and a bear trap. Currently, that seems to be the case in BTC.
The cryptocurrency initially fell after the MACD flipped negative in mid-February, but quickly found support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) in March and has since bounced back above $ 90k. All the while, the MACD has held below zero.
This pattern is reminiscent of last August and September, when prices held the SMA support amid persistent bearish MACD signals. The indicator flipped bullish around mid-October, confirming the trend with a rally from $70K to $100K by December.
The second pattern involves the 50- and 200-day SMAs. About four weeks ago, these averages formed a bearish crossover—commonly known as the death cross—signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, this turned out to be a bear trap, with bitcoin finding support around $75K and reversing course.
Recently, the 50-day SMA has begun to rise again and could soon cross above the 200-day SMA, setting up a bullish golden cross in the coming weeks.
This pattern closely mirrors last year’s trend: the death cross in August marked a bottom, quickly followed by a golden cross that sparked a breakout above $70K and ultimately led to a rally above $109K to new highs.
In other words, bullish volatility could be on the horizon, potentially taking bitcoin well past the January high of $109K.
Chart patterns are commonly used to assess market strength and forecast future movements. However, it’s important to remember that history doesn’t always repeat itself, and macroeconomic factors can rapidly swing market directions, making chart analysis far from foolproof.
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OCC: Banks Can Buy and Sell Their Customers’ Crypto Assets Held in Custody

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates national banks, has continued its about-face to earlier resistance to cryptocurrency in banking, issuing interpretive letters that say the institutions can — at their customers’ behest — buy and sell crypto assets in custody.
The newly explained policy stance released by the OCC on Wednesday also clarified that the bankers can outsource crypto activities to third parties, including custody and executive services. As long as it all still checks the boxes of the watchdog’s safety-and-soundness requirements, the OCC is giving the banks more crypto freedom.
This week’s move follows the agency’s March reversal of a longstanding policy that demanded bankers check with their government supervisors before moving ahead with new crypto business. «These letters signal a shift in the OCC’s approach,» Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, Starkware general counsel and a former chief legal officer at Cboe Digital, noted on social media site X. She said the agency now seems to be melding crypto into traditional banking. And the additional guidance that third-parties are okay «is a boon to regulated crypto native service providers.»
Read More: OCC Says Banks Can Engage in Crypto Custody and Certain Stablecoin Activities
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Fed Stagflation Risk Signal Could Be Bullish for Bitcoin, Analyst Says

The Federal Reserve is growing increasingly alert to stagflation risks—an uneasy mix of slowing growth and rising inflation that could challenge policymakers.
While Chair Jerome Powell insisted that the economy is in «good shape» and emphasized that the central bank is in “a good position to wait and see,” prior to shifting policy, subtle changes in the central bank’s policy statement pointed to heightened concerns over the economy’s direction.
Holding its benchmark interest rate steady today, the U.S. central bank acknowledged the growing risk of rising inflation and unemployment — roughly the definition of stagflation, which last made an appearance throughout a sizable chunk of the 1970s. That scenario would leave the central bank with limited room to maneuver to stimulate a weakening economy without further fueling inflation.
“The Fed is worried about stagflation,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, posted on X after the decision. “We think that outcome would be good for bitcoin.”
In an earlier report, Pandl argued that rising tariffs contribute to stagflation, which historically hurts traditional assets but benefits scarce stores of value like gold. “Bitcoin was not around for past stagflations,” he wrote, “but can be considered a scarce digital commodity and is increasingly viewed as a modern store of value.”
Bitcoin traded in a tight range following the Fed’s announcement and Powell’s remarks. It briefly touched $97,500 earlier Wednesday on optimism around U.S.-China trade talks before settling back to $96,500 — up 1.6% over the past 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a broader gauge of the crypto market, was up just 0.3% over the same period, weighed down by 1%-3% declines in XRP, AVAX, UNI, NEAR, and AAVE.
Meanwhile, equities recovered modestly from earlier losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing 0.4% and 0.3% higher, respectively.
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Trump Crypto Advisor David Bailey In Talks to Launch Bitcoin Investment Company: The Information

David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., the owner of Bitcoin Magazine, is planning to launch a publicly traded bitcoin (BTC) investing company, The Information reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Bailey, who advised Donald Trump on crypto policy during his 2024 presidential campaign, is reportedly seeking $200 million through a private share sale and an additional $100 million in convertible debt to fund a small publicly traded firm to buy bitcoin.
The company—whose name is not known yet—will merge with BTC Inc. and be named “Nakamoto” after bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, according to the people. The deal could be announced as soon as next week.
His plans follow those of several other companies, building on the success of Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, who was able to push the company’s stock price by over 3,000% since holding bitcoin as its main treasury reserve asset and rebranding it as a bitcoin strategy company.
Last month, powerhouses SoftBank, Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald announced a $3.6 billion bitcoin investment vehicle with the intention to buy bitcoin. Earlier today, Strive Asset Management said it was merging with Asset Entities to become a publicly traded bitcoin asset management company.
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