Uncategorized
Markets Today: Holding Steady for Powell

Bitcoin (BTC) held a crucial support level at $112,500 overnight, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April to July rally. However, the rebound has been muted so far, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech later Friday.
Last month, the market bounced sharply from this same Fibonacci level, and a similar move could unfold if Powell signals a more dovish stance, hinting at faster and deeper rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, followed by another before year-end.
One analyst examining options data estimates that bitcoin could experience a 2% price swing on Powell’s speech.
A dovish tone from Powell could bring a strong bounce in ether (ETH), as the cryptocurrency hovers above its uptrend line connecting April and early August lows.
Derivatives Positioning
- Global futures open interest (OI) in BTC and ETH has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours, suggesting capital is flowing in as prices drop. At least some of these inflows could be bearish bets initiated as hedges against potential hawkish comments from Powell later today.
- SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP and ADA all registered a decline in open interest, a sign of capital outflows. OI increased significantly in smaller, less-followed coins such as MAT, ULTIMA and LUMIA.
- However, speculative activity has cooled significantly, with volumes across major tokens, excluding BTC, dropping by 20% or more. It appears traders are holding back, waiting for Powell before making their next moves.
- On the CME, OI in standard ether futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH while BTC’s tally remains well below July’s lows, signaling a lack of investor interest.
- Options on CME, however, are heating up, with ETH open interest rising to $1 billion, the highest this year. BTC’s option OI has jumped to $4.44 billion, the most since May.
- BTC options listed on Deribit are suggesting a 2% price swing in the next 24 hours, indicating a slightly above-average volatility around the Jackson Hole event. Volatility has averaged 1.18% over the past 30 days.
- BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, suggesting downside fears. The same is true for ETFs tied to the Nasdaq.
- Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm were mixed, featuring outright calls, put spreads and risk reversal strategies.
Token Talk
- On-chain investigator Dethective uncovered coordinated wallet activity across YZY and LIBRA launches, showing insiders extracted nearly $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades.
- One wallet bought $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20 — when most traders paid above $1 — and flipped it for nearly $1 million profit in eight minutes. Funds were then funneled to a “treasury wallet” already tied to LIBRA gains.
- That same wallet benefited from LIBRA’s launch six months earlier, where two addresses used similar tactics to snipe tokens. One made $9 million, another $11.5 million, with both dumping quickly before public buyers could react.
- These wallets appeared only during the YZY and LIBRA launches and invested huge sums instantly, behavior Dethective said was impossible without insider information.
- While speculation has linked the wallets to LIBRA’s founder Hayden Davis, no proof has surfaced. Still, analysts argue “celebrity coins” marketed to fans may in reality be insider extraction schemes, enriching a few at the cost of retail.
- Research by Defioasis found more than 60% of YZY traders lost money. Out of 56,050 wallets trading YZY, most “only buying” wallets may have been fake, while “only selling” wallets were insiders exiting.
- Among those who both bought and sold, 38% profited, but nearly all gains were under $500. Just 406 wallets made more than $10,000, and five cleared over $1 million — mostly linked to insiders. One trader lost over $1 million in a single day.
- Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan by Q1 2026, aiming to leverage new digital asset regulations.
- SBI VC Trade, a licensed electronic payment instruments exchange service provider, will distribute RLUSD, according to a memorandum of understanding signed Friday.
- RLUSD, introduced in December 2024, is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations from a third-party auditor. Ripple says this gives it regulatory clarity and institutional-grade compliance compared to peers.
- SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD will “expand the option of stablecoins in the Japanese market” and strengthen trust in digital finance. Ripple executives framed it as a bridge between traditional and decentralized finance.
- The initiative is indicative of Ripple and SBI’s deepening partnership in Asia and comes just as Japan approved its first yen-denominated stablecoin earlier this week, signaling a rapidly opening market.
Business
Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.
According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.
That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.
At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.
With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.
MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.
Business
HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.
The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.
The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.
Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.
Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
- HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
- Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
- Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
- The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
- Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
- High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
- Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Business
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.
Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
- The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
- These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
- Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
- A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
- The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
- The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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