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Markets in Freefall: Is the Credit Market Forcing the Fed’s Hand?

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Financial markets are in a meltdown and every leg lower is strengthening expectations in the credit market that the Fed will soon offer support.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded 8% lower at $75,800 and the U.S. stocks were on track for their worst three-day performance, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 5% on Monday alone and losses approaching 15% overall.

The Fed has a history of intervening during financial meltdowns with rate cuts and other stimulus measures. So, traders, having become accustomed to liquidity support, are betting that the Fed will act similarly this time.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the federal funds futures market is now pricing in as many as five rate cuts in 2025. For the upcoming May 7 meeting, there’s a 61% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which would lower the target range to 4.25–4.50%. By year-end, the market sees the fed funds rate falling as low as 3.00–3.25%.

The risk-off, coupled with the growth scare and Fed rate cut bets, is giving Trump administration what it wants – plunging Treasury yields. The all-important 10-year yield — the benchmark for the U.S. economy — has dropped to 3.923%.

The popular narrative is that lower yields would make it easier for the Treasury to refinance trillions of dollars in debt in the coming 12 months, which is why the Trump administration may be more tolerant of the asset market swoon.

This refinancing urgency stems from a policy shift under former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who moved from longer-dated coupon issuance to short-term Treasury bills. Since 2023, about two-thirds of the deficit had been financed through bill issuance — short-term debt with rates hovering around 5%. While this may have temporarily supported liquidity, it created a ticking time bomb of expensive short-term debt that now needs to be rolled over.

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VARA Fortifies Controls on Crypto Margin Trading in Dubai, Refreshes Rulebook

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Dubai’s crypto regulator Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) has updated its rulebook for digital asset trading.

The emirati regulator has introduced greater leverage controls and collateralization requirements through provisions in its Broker-Deal and Exchange Rulebooks. This will help VARA’s rules to align with global risk standards, the regulator said in an emailed announcement on Monday.

VARA has also introduced sections of its rulebook to properly oversee areas of the crypto industry that were previously lightly regulated, such as broker-dealers and wallets.

The rules previously laid out by VARA have helped establish the city as a crypto hub, winning praise from crypto companies for being reasonably clear in their requirements to operate there. Major exchanges such as Binance, Crypto.com and OKX have all won approvals under VARA.

VARA is now taking these rules and upgrading them to reflect a more mature framework that it says incorporates real-world licensing experience and international best practices.

«These rulebook updates reinforce the foundations of a responsible, scalable ecosystem,” said Ruben Bombardi, General Counsel and Head of Regulatory Enablement at VARA, said in an emailed comment shared with CoinDesk.

Read More: Dubai Government Opens Door to Accepting Crypto for Service Fees

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Bulls and Bears Get Caught off Guard as Bitcoin Jumps to $106K, Then Falls Back to $103K

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Over $600 million in crypto derivatives positions have been liquidated since late Sunday as bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rally past $106,000 in the wee hours, only to reverse course and dump back to near $103,000, catching both bulls and bears off guard.

The move began around 21:00 UTC on Sunday, when bitcoin spiked more than $2,500 in less than an hour — a pattern that can be attributed to thin weekend liquidity and potential algorithmic buying triggered by technical levels.

Bitcoin price action. (CoinGecko)

Such price action was a textbook short squeeze followed by aggressive profit-taking or stop-run. A short squeeze happens when traders betting against a price (short sellers) are forced to buy the asset as it rises, to cover their losses, which pushes the price even higher and often very quickly.

The sudden move wiped out over $460 million in long positions and $220 million in shorts, across futures tracking majors like ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and dogecoin (DOGE).

The liquidation wave was notable for occurring during traditionally quiet weekend hours, an unusual event that marks forced selling or buying activity by a major player.

SOL, DOGE and XRP prices are down more than 4% in the past 24 hours, data shows, with the broad-based CoinDesk (CD20) down more than 2%.

The volatility follows a week of macro uncertainty, with Moody’s cutting the U.S. credit rating on Friday and inflation fears resurfacing after mixed economic data. The downgrade also led to U.S. 30-year treasury yields breaching the 5% mark.

While crypto has broadly benefited from renewed institutional inflows and spot ETF momentum, traders remain cautious at current price levels, as reported.

Bitcoin is flat over the past week, but the recent failure to hold above $106,000 — a key psychological and technical level — may signal near-term resistance, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk last week.

Meanwhile, some traders anticipate higher volatility in the days to come in a warning sign for those looking to leverage their bets.

“Investors are shifting capital to Bitcoin as concerns grow over a pending US spending bill that could add trillions in debt and push for higher Treasury premiums,” Haiyang Ru, co-CEO of the HashKey Business Group, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“But while bitcoin hovers just below new highs, we anticipate more market volatility as traders prepare for new trade deals and a final version of the fiscal policy,” Ru added.

Read more: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns

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U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns

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The yield on the U.S. 30-year treasury bills crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since April, reaching an intraday high of 5.011%. This move comes in the wake of Moody’s downgrading U.S. credit, stripping the country of Aaa rating due to mounting deficits and escalating interest expenses.

The last time the long end of the yield curve reached 5% was on April 9, during the so-called «tariff tantrum,» which triggered sharp sell-offs in both crypto and U.S. equity markets.

At that time, bitcoin (BTC) was hovering near its local low of around $75,000. It has since rebounded strongly, currently trading around $103,000 after hitting a Sunday high of $106,000.

“The last time the 30-year closed at or above 5% (at the 6 PM ET mark) was October 31, 2023. The highest closing yield in recent memory was 5.11% on October 19, 2023, the highest since July 2007, nearly 18 years ago. The current yield is just 12 basis points away from surpassing that milestone,” said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research.

In addition, the United Kingdom surpassed China in March to become the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings totaling $779.3 billion—trailing only Japan, which remains the top foreign holder.

Both China and Japan have continued to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings over the past 12 months, underscoring the growing need for the U.S. to attract new buyers for its debt.

As the U.S. Treasury faces growing deficits, with the potential of more bonds being issued, increasing supply and thereby pushing yields higher while prices fall. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are down around 2%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in the market.

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