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Market, Data Suggests Favorable Outlook for Bitcoin — CoinDesk Indices

Published

1 месяц ago

14 апреля, 2025

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It’s a big week for those of us tasked with making the case for bitcoin and crypto as an investable asset class. While global markets have been ugly, unpredictable and fragile of late, digital assets held steady with moderate volatility.

Bitcoin was up ~ 5% and the CoinDesk 20 Index was up ~ 6% last week. In a landscape where traditional assets seemed to lose their footing, crypto’s resilience offers an intriguing counternarrative to the skeptics who’ve long questioned its legitimacy during market stress.

A week ago (April 6), I described the market as a bus teetering on a cliff’s edge. It might have been exhilarating for skillful traders, but unhedgeable for managers of traditional asset portfolios. Sure, being long equity puts might have looked (and felt) great as futures tumbled Sunday night (April 13), but monetizing those puts in an extremely choppy and high-velocity market is near impossible – and forces the hedger to «call a bottom.» If you don’t monetize the puts and the market rebounds, your puts decay to zero, locking in a loss. (Or, if your hedge of choice was a retreat to U.S. Treasuries, it was even worse.)

The art of risk management in traditional markets is proving increasingly difficult in this environment. Even professional traders with decades of experience found themselves whipsawed by the market’s violent moves. For those managing pension funds, endowments, or family offices, the challenge of preserving capital while maintaining return targets has rarely been more daunting. The playbook that worked for the past decade seems increasingly irrelevant.

Bitcoin’s Resilience amid Liquidations

Amid the chaos, bitcoin kept a pretty narrow range. The two weakest periods, on April 7 and 9, lined up with perp liquidations (forced sales of leveraged positions that are much more “standard practice” in crypto than in traditional markets). This gave pundits a handy «low» price to challenge bitcoin’s aforementioned resilience, but we should push back here. Temporary liquidation dips are just that — artificial flows that are recoverable. They create a nice lower candle wick, but don’t always represent the whole market fairly; we should discount their relevance accordingly. (This may be a controversial view; fire away if you disagree.)

Store of Value vs. Safe Haven

As usual, pundits and skeptics blurred bitcoin’s «store of value» claim with «flight-to-quality» and «safe haven.» We will keep pounding the drum on the difference between «flight-to-quality»/»safe haven» and «store of value» assets. Bitcoin, still in its adolescence and with limited access to traditional liquidity pools (i.e., banks), shouldn’t be expected to function as a mature flight-to-quality or safe haven asset during extreme volatility episodes. Similarly, there are things I don’t expect or enlist my teenage children to do.

Seeing gold’s outperformance vs. bitcoin this year supports this argument. Gold has better access to traditional finance, is perceived to be limited in supply, and has a mature network. But does it have adoption momentum? Is it an asset of the future? While gold glitters in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, bitcoin offers something different – a technological evolution in the concept of money itself, with adoption curves that continue to remind us that we’re still early in its lifecycle.

Michigan Numbers: Uncertain Consumers -> Strong Bitcoin

The week’s crypto-supporting experience was capped by April 11’s University of Michigan Consumer Survey, which delivered two powerful data points supporting bitcoin’s price trajectory: the highest expectations for 1-year inflation since 1981(!) and elevated expectations for unemployment.

Source: University of Michigan

We favor anchoring bitcoin’s demand to expected real interest rates — the difference between expected nominal rates and inflation expectations. When real rates are expected to rise, bitcoin faces headwinds. Conversely, when real rates are expected to fall due to higher inflation and potential rate cuts (hello, rising unemployment expectations), bitcoin tends to benefit. The Michigan survey numbers provide a surprisingly clear north star for bitcoin accumulation: 1) higher expected inflation and 2) unemployment expectations that could prompt Fed easing. Lower nominal rates, higher inflation.

This framework helps explain bitcoin’s impressive performance during previous easing cycles and suggests we could be entering a similarly favorable environment. The divergence between consumer inflation expectations and the Fed’s more sanguine outlook bears watching closely – historically, the consumer has often proven more prescient than the central bank.

Beyond Bitcoin

With Paul Atkins now cleared to lead the SEC and other supportive regulatory developments, the broader crypto ecosystem shows promising signals. Can we expect the rest of the broad-based CoinDesk 20 Index, which covers about 80% of the market, to participate in a potential bitcoin-lead rally?

Two factors suggest yes.

First, asset correlations rarely break down during broad market rallies in this sector.

Second, the pro-blockchain uptrend dynamics we witnessed last November could reappear and reignite interest across Layer 1 blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, Sui, Cardano, and Avalanche, infrastructure providers like Chainlink and Filecoin, DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Aave, financial services assets like Ripple, and other sectors.

The potential for a broader rally suggests that diversification within the crypto space could once again prove rewarding, particularly if regulatory tailwinds continue to strengthen. The tide that lifts bitcoin rarely leaves other quality projects stranded.

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Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross Weeks After ‘Trapping Bears’ as U.S. Debt Concerns Mount

Published

9 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

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Bitcoin’s BTC price chart is echoing a bullish pattern that foreshadowed the late 2024 price surge from $70,000 to $100,000 amid mounting concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. debt.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value appears on track to confirm a «golden cross» in the coming days, according to charting platform TradingView. The pattern occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of prices crosses above the 200-day SMA to suggest that the short-term trend is outperforming the broader trend, with the potential to evolve into a major bull run.

The moving average-based golden cross has a mixed record of predicting price trends. The impending one, however, is worth noting because it’s about to occur weeks after its ominous-sounding opposite, the death cross, trapped bears on the wrong side of the market.

A similar pattern unfolded from August through September 2024, setting the stage for a convincing move above $70,000 in early November. Prices eventually set a record high above $109K in January this year.

BTC's price chart: 2024 vs 2025. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The chart on the left shows that BTC bottomed out at around $50,000 in early August last year as the 50-day SMA moved below the 200-day SMA to confirm the death cross.

In other words, the death cross was a bear trap, much like the one in early April this year. Prices turned higher in subsequent weeks, eventually beginning a new uptrend after the appearance of the golden cross in late October 2024.

The bullish sequence is being repeated since early April, and prices could begin the next leg higher following the confirmation of the golden cross in the coming days.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, and technical patterns do not always deliver as expected. That said, macro factors seem aligned with the bullish technical setup.

Moody’s amplifies U.S. debt concerns

On Friday, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from the highest ”Aaa” to ”Aa1”, citing concerns over the increasing national debt, which has now reached $36 trillion.

The bond market has been pricing fiscal concerns for some time. Last week, CoinDesk detailed how persistent elevated Treasury yields reflected expectations for continued fiscal splurge and sovereign risk premium, both bullish for bitcoin.

Read: BTC Boom Likely as Bond Yields Surge

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XRP Price Surges After V-Shaped Recovery, Targets $3.40

Published

17 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

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Global economic tensions and regulatory developments continue to influence XRP’s price action, with the digital asset showing remarkable resilience despite recent volatility.

After experiencing a significant dip to $2.307 on high volume, XRP has established an upward trajectory with a series of higher lows, suggesting continued momentum as it approaches resistance levels.

Technical indicators point to a potential bullish breakout, with multiple analysts highlighting critical support at $2.35-$2.40 that must hold for upward continuation.

Technical Analysis Highlights

Price experienced a 3.76% range ($2.307-$2.396) over 24 hours with a sharp sell-off at 16:00 dropping to $2.307 on high volume (77.9M).
Strong support emerged at $2.32 level with buyers stepping in during high-volume periods, particularly during the 13:00-14:00 recovery.
Asset established upward trajectory, forming higher lows from the bottom, with resistance around $2.39 tested during 07:00 session.
In the last hour, XRP climbed from $2.358 to $2.368, representing a 0.42% gain with notable volume spikes at 01:52 and 01:55.
Price surged past resistance at $2.36 to reach $2.366, later establishing new local highs at $2.369 during 02:03 session on substantial volume (539,987).
Currently maintaining strength above $2.368 support level with decreasing volatility suggesting potential continuation of upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

External References

«XRP price path to $3.40 remains intact — Here is why«, Cointelegraph, published May 16, 2025.
«XRP Price Watch: Bulls Eye $2.60 as Long-Term Trend Holds«, Bitcoin.com News, published May 17, 2025.
«XRP Price Explosion To $5.9: Current Consolidation Won’t Stop XRP From Growing«, NewsBTC, published May 17, 2025.

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SUI Surges After Finding Strong Support at $3.75 Level

Published

18 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

admin

Global economic tensions and shifting trade policies continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with SUI showing particular resilience.

The asset established a trading range of 4.46% between $3.70 and $3.86, finding strong volume support at the $3.755 level.

A notable bullish momentum emerged with price surging 1.9% on above-average volume, establishing resistance at $3.850.

The formation of higher lows throughout the latter part of the day suggests consolidation above the $3.775 support level.

Technical Analysis Highlights

SUI established a 24-hour trading range of 0.165 (4.46%) between the low of 3.700 and high of 3.862.
Strong volume support emerged at the 3.755 level during hours 17-18, with accumulation exceeding the 24-hour volume average by 45%.
Notable bullish momentum occurred in the 20:00 hour with price surging 7.2 cents (1.9%) on above-average volume.
Resistance established at 3.850 with higher lows forming throughout the latter part of the day.
Decreasing volatility in the final hours suggests consolidation above the 3.775 support level.
Significant buyer interest appeared between 01:27-01:30, forming a strong support zone at 3.756-3.760 with exceptionally high volume (over 300,000 units per minute).
Decisive bullish reversal began at 01:42, establishing a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Breakout above 3.780 occurred at 01:55, followed by consolidation near 3.785 with decreasing volume.