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Mark Carney Could Easily Win Canadian Elections, Myriad Markets Says

Published

1 месяц ago

10 апреля, 2025

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In early January, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, all polls pointed to political upheaval in Canada should an election be called.

Now, it looks to be an unprecedented fourth term for the Liberal Party, led by former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, with a contract on Myriad Markets, a new prediction market, giving Carney a 74% chance of taking office.

Back in January, a poll tracker from CBC projected that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, could have made history winning up to 244 of the 338 seats in Canada’s Parliament.

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals may have been relegated to third place, an astonishing fall for a party whose leader entered Ottawa as one of Canada’s most liked. At the time, Quebec’s Bloc Quebecois – a federal party that solely exists to advance Quebec’s interests on the national stage – assumed the role of official opposition.

But much has changed since then.

January 6 was the day that Trudeau announced his resignation and polls reflected the last days of what one columnist for the National Post described as a «legacy of chaos and disaster.»

This is continuing coverage of the Canadian election as part of an exclusive arrangement between myriad markets and Consensus by CoinDesk. Consensus 2025 will take place in Toronto May 14-16.

The Conservative party had already been in campaign mode weeks before Trudeau’s resignation, latching on to inflation and Canada’s declining post-Covid affordability and were rewarded with it handsomely in the polls.

Voters weren’t impressed with the Liberal’s proposals on carbon taxes and Trudeau’s plans for housing affordability were seen as not scratching the surface of the problem.

On January 7, there was no Trudeau. Without a foil, Poilievre was suddenly less effective and likeable. While the Conservatives have a whole library of policies, the headline was about Trudeau. There was no other ballot box question. Polls showed that the Conservative’s lead was beginning to slip.

Then Donald Trump entered the fray.

A trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner – something unfathomable a year ago – became a reality.

Carney won the race to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader – temporarily becoming the country’s prime minister. With Carney at the helm, the Liberals leaped into a significant lead nationally.

Carney, a former central banker, outpaced Poilievre in favorability ratings, reflecting widespread public sentiment that an experienced central banker was more trustworthy to handle pressing economic challenges than a lifelong partisan operative.

Carney’s significant experience on Bay Street, Wall Street, and in central banks ticked a lot of the right boxes for the electorate, putting him on track, as Myriad Markets’ election contract shows, to be elected as Canada’s twenty-fourth prime minister.

The Canadian election contract is one of the 30-odd markets currently on the platform, which cover a variety of topics from crypto prices, to the launch date of Grand Theft Auto VI.

Myriad Markets is a brainchild of the Decrypt and Rug Radio team, which launched it last year as part of a “interconnected media ecosystem” that integrates on-chain prediction markets alongside written and video content.

Crypto not on the Ballot

The Trump campaign doubled-down on crypto in the election as a way to get swing voters to the ballot box.

As Conservative party leader, Poilievre said in late 2022 that he wanted to make Canada the «Blockchain capital of the world». Disclosures show he holds shares in the Purpose Bitcoin ETF.

A 2022 survey from the Ontario Securities Commission showed that 13% of Canadians owned crypto assets, of which most were male and under 45.

One might wonder, then, why crypto isn’t a bigger issue in this election. It could be that part of the reason why is corporations are not allowed to fund political operations as they do in the United States; around $120 million – or about half of all corporate money donated – in the last election came from crypto companies.

Poilievre likely believes crypto is not worth dwelling on amid broader economic uncertainty and cross-border tensions that are top-of-mind for voters.

Crypto industry groups are waiting until after the election to press their case, seeing it as tone-deaf to push on crypto issues right now.

Whoever wins, they will have to work closely with Canada’s provinces, which control securities regulation. This is likely why crypto has only gotten moderate attention in Parliament in Ottawa. Any sort of development would likely come from the Provinces.

Crypto regulation in Canada is a featured topic at Consensus 2025 in Toronto, which takes place from May 14-16.

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Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross Weeks After ‘Trapping Bears’ as U.S. Debt Concerns Mount

Published

13 часов ago

18 мая, 2025

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Bitcoin’s BTC price chart is echoing a bullish pattern that foreshadowed the late 2024 price surge from $70,000 to $100,000 amid mounting concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. debt.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value appears on track to confirm a «golden cross» in the coming days, according to charting platform TradingView. The pattern occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of prices crosses above the 200-day SMA to suggest that the short-term trend is outperforming the broader trend, with the potential to evolve into a major bull run.

The moving average-based golden cross has a mixed record of predicting price trends. The impending one, however, is worth noting because it’s about to occur weeks after its ominous-sounding opposite, the death cross, trapped bears on the wrong side of the market.

A similar pattern unfolded from August through September 2024, setting the stage for a convincing move above $70,000 in early November. Prices eventually set a record high above $109K in January this year.

BTC's price chart: 2024 vs 2025. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The chart on the left shows that BTC bottomed out at around $50,000 in early August last year as the 50-day SMA moved below the 200-day SMA to confirm the death cross.

In other words, the death cross was a bear trap, much like the one in early April this year. Prices turned higher in subsequent weeks, eventually beginning a new uptrend after the appearance of the golden cross in late October 2024.

The bullish sequence is being repeated since early April, and prices could begin the next leg higher following the confirmation of the golden cross in the coming days.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, and technical patterns do not always deliver as expected. That said, macro factors seem aligned with the bullish technical setup.

Moody’s amplifies U.S. debt concerns

On Friday, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from the highest ”Aaa” to ”Aa1”, citing concerns over the increasing national debt, which has now reached $36 trillion.

The bond market has been pricing fiscal concerns for some time. Last week, CoinDesk detailed how persistent elevated Treasury yields reflected expectations for continued fiscal splurge and sovereign risk premium, both bullish for bitcoin.

Read: BTC Boom Likely as Bond Yields Surge

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XRP Price Surges After V-Shaped Recovery, Targets $3.40

Published

22 часа ago

18 мая, 2025

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Global economic tensions and regulatory developments continue to influence XRP’s price action, with the digital asset showing remarkable resilience despite recent volatility.

After experiencing a significant dip to $2.307 on high volume, XRP has established an upward trajectory with a series of higher lows, suggesting continued momentum as it approaches resistance levels.

Technical indicators point to a potential bullish breakout, with multiple analysts highlighting critical support at $2.35-$2.40 that must hold for upward continuation.

Technical Analysis Highlights

Price experienced a 3.76% range ($2.307-$2.396) over 24 hours with a sharp sell-off at 16:00 dropping to $2.307 on high volume (77.9M).
Strong support emerged at $2.32 level with buyers stepping in during high-volume periods, particularly during the 13:00-14:00 recovery.
Asset established upward trajectory, forming higher lows from the bottom, with resistance around $2.39 tested during 07:00 session.
In the last hour, XRP climbed from $2.358 to $2.368, representing a 0.42% gain with notable volume spikes at 01:52 and 01:55.
Price surged past resistance at $2.36 to reach $2.366, later establishing new local highs at $2.369 during 02:03 session on substantial volume (539,987).
Currently maintaining strength above $2.368 support level with decreasing volatility suggesting potential continuation of upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

External References

«XRP price path to $3.40 remains intact — Here is why«, Cointelegraph, published May 16, 2025.
«XRP Price Watch: Bulls Eye $2.60 as Long-Term Trend Holds«, Bitcoin.com News, published May 17, 2025.
«XRP Price Explosion To $5.9: Current Consolidation Won’t Stop XRP From Growing«, NewsBTC, published May 17, 2025.

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SUI Surges After Finding Strong Support at $3.75 Level

Published

22 часа ago

18 мая, 2025

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Global economic tensions and shifting trade policies continue to influence cryptocurrency markets, with SUI showing particular resilience.

The asset established a trading range of 4.46% between $3.70 and $3.86, finding strong volume support at the $3.755 level.

A notable bullish momentum emerged with price surging 1.9% on above-average volume, establishing resistance at $3.850.

The formation of higher lows throughout the latter part of the day suggests consolidation above the $3.775 support level.

Technical Analysis Highlights

SUI established a 24-hour trading range of 0.165 (4.46%) between the low of 3.700 and high of 3.862.
Strong volume support emerged at the 3.755 level during hours 17-18, with accumulation exceeding the 24-hour volume average by 45%.
Notable bullish momentum occurred in the 20:00 hour with price surging 7.2 cents (1.9%) on above-average volume.
Resistance established at 3.850 with higher lows forming throughout the latter part of the day.
Decreasing volatility in the final hours suggests consolidation above the 3.775 support level.
Significant buyer interest appeared between 01:27-01:30, forming a strong support zone at 3.756-3.760 with exceptionally high volume (over 300,000 units per minute).
Decisive bullish reversal began at 01:42, establishing a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Breakout above 3.780 occurred at 01:55, followed by consolidation near 3.785 with decreasing volume.