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March Jobs Report a ‘Heads I Win, Tails You Lose’ Moment for Bitcoin Bulls

As the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the movie «The Dark Knight,» who flips coins to make decisions, confident of controlling the fate irrespective of the outcome.
It’s a classic case of «heads I win, tails you lose,» which means that bitcoin bulls will likely come out on top after the impending jobs report, regardless of whether the data reveals labor market strength or weakness.
This situation arises from President Donald Trump’s Wednesday announcement of sweeping tariffs affecting 180 nations, prompting forward-looking markets to price in recession risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Consequently, stronger-than-expected jobs data, which typically strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets like BTC, may be dismissed as outdated, overlooking the recent developments resulting from Trump’s policies. Therefore, any dip in BTC following a potentially hot NFP report could be swiftly reversed, leading to gains.
On the other hand, weak data would only add to recession fears and bolster Fed rate cut bets, supporting increased risk-taking in financial markets.
At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $84,190, having hit lows below $82,000 Thursday, per CoinDesk data. The fact that prices have stayed well above the $77,000 March low despite peak tariff uncertainty indicates seller fatigue and potential for a price rise.
Volmex’s bitcoin one-day implied volatility index stood at an annualized 65%, indicating an expected price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours.
The jobs data is due at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is 130,000, down from February’s 151,000 tally. The jobless rate is forecast to have risen to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Ahead of the data release, rates traders are pricing 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first move expected to happen in June, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
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Bitcoin Tumbles Below $80K Alongside 5% Plunge in Nasdaq as China Tariff Tiff Escalates

After U.S. markets enjoyed a brief gasp of relief on Wednesday, charts got ugly again on Thursday as focus shifted to a potential bigger conflict between the U.S. and China.
Bitcoin (BTC), which rose more than 8% the day prior, dipped about 4% below $80,000 again on Thursday. The decline in bitcoin came alongside a renewed plunge in the Nasdaq, which was lower by 5.5% following yesterday’s 12% rally as traders are assessing U.S. President Donald Trump’s next steps in his tariff policy.
Crypto stocks also took a hit. MicroStrategy (MSTR) was down 11.2%, and Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) fell 8.1% and 9.3%, respectively.
Already sharply lower on the session, the stock sell-off escalated after a tweet circulated saying that a White House official confirmed that the total tariff rate on China now stands at 145%, not 125% as President Trump stated yesterday.
The Executive Order details that the “reciprocal” tariff rate surged from 84% to 125% overnight. When combined with the existing 20% tariff on fentanyl-related goods, the total rate reaches 145%.
China, in a bid to strike at Trump’s initial tariffs, said it would reduce imports of American movies, intensifying the trade war between the two countries.
Meanwhile, gold is soaring up 3% and hitting a new all-time high of $3,168. The DXY index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, has dropped below 101, effectively reversing its entire November rally, and now down 9% from the January highs.
Politically charged environment
«The macro outlook is anything but secure,» said Kirill Kretov, senior expert at crypto trading automation platform CoinPanel. «This is a politically charged environment, where headlines have the power to reshape sentiment almost instantly.»
«A key swing factor now is trade policy,» Kretov added, with the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff policies adding to concerns about inflation. «Any escalation on this front would complicate the Fed’s decision-making and potentially derail the current market narrative,» he said.
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Working Through the Riddles of Tokenized Securities

In the Ancient Greek tale of Oedipus, great rewards awaited travelers able to solve difficult riddles, but a powerful sphinx posed the riddles and devoured those who failed to solve them. Similarly, in ancient crypto times, circa 2017, blockchain technology stood to revolutionize finance and other fields. But two challenges stood in the way of this technology enjoying its full potential: (1) securities laws that don’t easily map onto decentralized systems, and (2) a securities regulator hostile to digital assets, which often posed grave risks to those who tried to solve the first challenge.
Today, the sphinx has resolved to be more helpful, but the riddles remain. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (“SEC”) Crypto Task Force has stated that the agency’s previous regime created “an environment hostile to innovation” and has committed to working with industry participants to craft sensible regulations. While promising, significant challenges remain. U.S. securities laws are a mix of statutes passed by Congress and rules adopted by the SEC. The Task Force has signaled the SEC’s willingness to make the latter more workable through new rules and exemptions. Statutes, however, present most of the challenges and only Congress, not the SEC, can change them.
Below is a primer on the more common riddles currently facing developers of tokenized securities.
Regulatory Considerations
For tokenized securities, the developer creates on-chain tokens that each represent a share of equity in a company or other security, or another asset that offers the right to cashflows. This tokenization can open up possibilities—such as instantaneous settlement, share fractionalization, and daily dividend payments—that make the product more efficient or functionally diverse than its TradFi counterpart.
Even though the SEC may be more receptive to ideas for tokenized securities, it doesn’t have the authority to change statutes. Tokenized securities projects, therefore, will still need to solve or avoid the riddles these statutes present.
The Investment Company Act
If a token gives its holder economic exposure to assets that the developer has pooled, that token project could be an investment company covered by the Investment Company Act, which regulates companies, like mutual funds, that invest in securities and let investors get exposure to those investments through shares that they issue.
This riddle existed well before crypto, and most opted to navigate it by avoiding being classified as an investment company in the first place. That’s because the requirements imposed by the Investment Company Act don’t work well with business models that involve more than the buying and selling of securities. There are substantial restrictions on debt and equity raises, borrowing, and even business with affiliates. For those unable to avoid triggering these requirements, there are exemptions that may be available.
Broker-Dealers Under the Securities Exchange Act
Anyone who buys and sells securities for others or stands ready to buy and sell securities for their own account may be a broker or dealer. There is no bright line rule for qualifying as a broker-dealer, but the SEC and courts consider as indicia whether you provide liquidity, charge a fee related to the trade price, actively find investors, or play a role in holding customer funds or securities.
While there’s no practical way to trade digital assets as a broker-dealer currently, the SEC could use its existing authority to chart a realistic path for doing so. In the best case, that will take time and still come with some compliance obligations.
Exchanges Under the Securities Exchange Act
While it may not look like a traditional securities exchange, a platform using smart contracts to bring together orders for tokenized securities from multiple buyers and multiple sellers for matching and execution could qualify as one, depending on its structure.
Currently, only broker-dealers can trade on exchanges, and exchanges can’t hold customer accounts or custody customer securities. Even if the SEC is able to rework these rules, some requirements would no doubt persist.
Security-Based Swaps Under the Securities Exchange Act
If a tokenized security gives its holder exposure to the economic performance of one or more securities, it may have crossed over into the complicated world of security-based swaps. Generally, tokens that provide for the exchange of future payments based on the value of a security (or events relating to that security) without conveying ownership rights are likely to be swaps. Security-based swaps are under the joint jurisdiction of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The requirements for them are many, with the most notable being rules prohibiting retail investors from purchasing swaps.
AML and KYC
Companies involved in trading or transferring tokenized securities also need to consider the applicability of anti-money laundering and know-your-customer laws. Compliance requirements depend on the role being played in the transactions but can include collecting and verifying the name, birthdate, and address of customers.
The Riddles Must Be Worked Through, Not Around
Solving these riddles is not an end in itself. When designing any tokenized securities project, developers make choices based on the economics, the technology, and the regulatory framework. These areas are intertwined, as the technology can make the economics possible and decide where a project falls within the regulatory framework. But because these considerations are so interrelated, developers should analyze them holistically from the beginning. Leaving regulatory considerations for the end can turn into a game of Jenga where problematic parts are removed only to topple the benefits of and objectives for the economics and technology. The riddles posed today aren’t merely obstacles to the many advantages of blockchain technology, but crucial parts of the answer.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Skadden or its clients.
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TRX Rallies 10% as Tether Mints $1B on Tron Amid Global Trade Tensions

Amid growing trade disputes between major economies, cryptocurrency markets are showing mixed reactions, with Tron (TRX) demonstrating particular resilience.
Tether’s recent minting of 1 billion USDT on the Tron network signals continued institutional interest despite market volatility.
Technical Analysis Highlights
TRX recovered from a 7.5% correction, rebounding from 0.221 on April 7th to reach 0.243 by April 10th.
A clear double-bottom pattern formed around the 0.226-0.227 support zone, with significantly increased volume during the recovery phase, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The 48-hour analysis shows a decisive uptrend with higher lows and higher highs, establishing strong support at 0.238 and resistance at 0.242.
Fibonacci retracement levels indicate the current rally has reclaimed the 61.8% level of the previous decline.
Momentum indicators point to continued bullish sentiment as TRX approaches the key psychological level of 0.245.
In the last 100 minutes of trading, TRX gained 0.6% from 0.241 to 0.242, forming a clear ascending channel pattern.
Strong buying pressure occurred between 10:52-10:58, with TRX surging from 0.241 to 0.242 on higher-than-average volume.
A brief pullback to 0.241 around 11:15 established a higher low, maintaining uptrend integrity.
Fibonacci extension suggests 0.243 as the next target level, with immediate support at 0.241.
Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.
External References:
TheNewsCrypto, «3 More Altcoins to Add to Your Portfolio If You Bought the Solana (SOL) Dip,» published April 8, 2025.
Cryptopolitan, «AI Predicts 22,140% Gains For Mutuum Finance (MUTM) & 405% For Shiba Inu (SHIB), But Says To Sell Tron (TRX) & Ripple (XRP) Fast,» published April 7, 2025.
Bitcoinist, «XRP To Flip Bitcoin This Cycle? Analyst Points To Major Bounce,» published April 8, 2025.
Bitcoin Sistemi, «New Statement from Tron (TRX) Founder Justin Sun on FDUSD Crisis,» published April 5, 2025.
U.Today, «Tron (TRX) May Flip Dogecoin (DOGE) Soon,» published April 8, 2025.
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