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Larger Cohorts Than U.S. ETFs or MicroStrategy Are Dictating Bitcoin Price: Van Straten

Disclosure: The author of this story owns shares in MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Since Donald Trump won the U.S. election on Nov. 5, bitcoin (BTC) has soared from $67,000 to around $100,000. This has coincided with a huge rise in bitcoin’s total trade volume which has now surpassed $100 billion.
According to checkonchain data, bitcoin futures trading volume hit an all-time high of around $120 billion on Nov. 17, almost doubling since the U.S. election. However, since then futures trade volume has plateaued and steadied around $100 billion.
The same can be seen with spot trade volume which has also doubled from around $6 billion to $12 billion. While the spot listed U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETF) trade volume has also picked up reaching $4 billion a day.
Bitcoin remains in a key trading range of $100,000, going above and below the key psychological area on multiple occasions. A lot of this has to do with the enormous sell pressure coming from long-term holders (LTH) or investors who have held bitcoin for longer than 155 days.
Since September, LTHs have sold 843,113 BTC. In the same period short-term holders (STHs), those who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days, have accumulated 1,081,633 BTC. This works out to around 9,960 BTC sold by LTHs and STHs accumulating 12,432 BTC per day.
To show the difference of trading volumes between long and short-term holders, we compare them to other big players in the industry, such as the self-described bitcoin development company MicroStrategy (MSTR). MicroStrategy holds 423,650 bitcoin or just over 2% of the total supply. In addition, U.S. ETFs now hold over 1 million bitcoin.
Since September, MicroStrategy has accumulated 197,250 BTC, which works out to roughly 2,168 BTC per day. While, the U.S ETFs have accumulated approximately 205,000 BTC, which works out to 2,253 BTC per day. The U.S. ETF BTC balance has grown from 916,000 BTC to 1.12 million BTC.
In order for bitcoin to conclusively break higher of $100,000 we will need to see LTHs dial down on offloading their tokens or have bigger cohorts enter the space and pick up the buys.
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Chart of the Week: Bitcoin Soars, But ‘Wen Lambo’ Crowd Is Missing From the Rally

What happens when retail logs off from crypto and Wall Street tunes in? Looking at bitcoin’s BTC recent all-time-high, one would say it feels bullish and the industry is maturing.
That might as well be the case, but we might not be there yet. So before we floor our Lambos, let’s look under the hood.
First things first, retail investors have basically ghosted this rally. A quick search on Google Trends using the keyword «bitcoin» shows that the surge that was seen back in 2021’s bull market is non-existent. Back then, everyone and their grandmothers were Googling bitcoin, aping into altcoins and flooding the social media with rocket emojis. In 2025? It’s a ghost town in retail-land.
There was a blip of high retail interest surrounding the U.S. presidential election, when a short-lived memecoin mania took over retail sentiment. However, that surge is long gone, as memecoin prices tanked swiftly, even as bitcoin hit an all-time high this week, ripping past $111,000.
«Early in this cycle, memecoins became a concentration of risky retail-driven trading with related trading peaking in January,» said Toronto-based crypto platform FRNT Financial. «However, since then, there has been a virtual wash-out of interest and memecoin trading activity,» which shows «the tepid risk appetite in crypto at the moment,» FRNT added.
Translation: «Wen Lambo» crowd got burned, and they aren’t rushing back into the race track en masse anytime soon.
From Lambos to Corollas
On the topic of risk appetite, let’s go back to the car analogy.
During the 2021 bull market, people bought unreliable performance cars, stripped out the brakes and seatbelts to go faster than ever before, and did not care that there might be engine blowouts. As long as there was a promise of reaching the moon, bullish vibes were all that mattered.
Now? After losing tremendous amounts of money on those unsustainable go-fast cars for years, traders are driving Toyota Corollas—sensible sedans that are slow but steady and still on the road.
That risk-off sentiment is also evident from the funding rates, according to FRNT’s analysis of BTC perp rates—a measure of how much traders are willing to pay to maintain their long positions. When bitcoin reached a record high of around $42,000 in January 2021, the perp rate was about blistering 185%. Today, at bitcoin near $110,000, the rate is near 20% on crypto options exchange Deribit, meaning the risk appetite isn’t completely gone but nowhere near the 2021 frenzy.
ATH jitters
A third point to add is the high number of short positions in the market.
As CoinDesk’s Oliver Knight reported this week, the bitcoin long/short ratio is at its lowest point since the crypto winter in September 2022. This implies that the majority of the traders aren’t completely buying into this recent positive momentum and betting on bitcoin moving lower as a hedge for the new bullish rally.
The impact of such positioning was clear on Friday, when bitcoin swiftly crashed from near $111,000 to $108,000 in a matter of minutes and then bounced right back up to $109,000. The anxiety of a swift volatility is real.
So in a car-themed analogy, the drivers (in this case, investors) are still taking out their super-modified, unreliable sports cars for a weekend drive on the track. Still, they also have their Corollas following along. Just in case the engine blows on their go-fast cars.
Cautious optimism
Given the current macro-risk, it’s not entirely surprising that investors are on their toes and risk-averse. But this might just be exactly what your mechanic at the shop prescribed. In fact, this might be an indicator of a sustainable rally in the long term.
«Periods of low leverage and risk appetite in crypto have often preceded further sustainable gains,» according to FRNT.
«BTC appears to be in such a phase, set against a backdrop of numerous bullish catalysts and narratives,» the firm added.
The bottom line is that the retail Lambos might have been towed away, but big money is stepping in with their everlasting Toyotas. This might start a slow but steady race to the moon, not just a reckless joyride.
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Solana Plunges 5% as Midnight Sell-Off Signals Institutional Exit

The cryptocurrency market faces renewed pressure as Solana (SOL) dropped below its stable $177 trading range, reflecting broader concerns about global economic stability.
The correction coincides with increasing geopolitical tensions that have rattled financial markets worldwide, forcing investors to reassess risk exposure across digital assets.
Despite the pullback, Solana’s ecosystem continues to expand with R3’s strategic pivot to integrate with its blockchain, signaling growing institutional interest in the platform’s capabilities for tokenizing real-world assets.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- SOL price dropped from stable $177 range to find support at $170.41, representing a 4.5% correction.
- Dramatic volume spike to 1.26M occurred during midnight hour when prices fell below $172.
- Support levels established at $170.67-$171.66 have held thus far.
- Price attempted recovery toward $174 level before facing resistance.
- In the last hour, SOL declined from $172.93 to $172.00.
- Significant price drop occurred at 08:00, briefly touching $171.92 before recovering.
- Volume spiked to 29,372 units during this minute, suggesting institutional selling pressure.
- Temporary support found at $171.80-$171.85 range around 07:30-07:31.
- Local high of $172.35 reached at 07:36 during recovery attempt.
- Price continues to consolidate near $172 support level.
External References
- «Solana (SOL) Price Flexes Bullish Momentum, Analysts Eye Major Breakout Beyond $250«, Coin Edition, published May 23, 2025.
- «Can Solana Break the $180 Resistance? Here’s What SOL Price Will Be Worth in 2025!«, CoinPedia, published May 24, 2025.
- «Solana MACD Curling Up – Is This The Prelude To A Breakout?«, NewsBTC, published May 24, 2025.
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Judge Overturns Convictions in Mango Markets Exploiter’s Crypto Fraud Case

A U.S. judge has overturned the fraud and market manipulation convictions of Avraham Eisenberg, the crypto trader accused of draining $110 million from the now-defunct decentralized finance protocol Mango Markets.
On Friday, U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled that prosecutors failed to prove Eisenberg made false representations to the platform.
He also moved to acquit Eisenberg of wire fraud charges. The investor manipulated the price of Mango’s native token MNGO with massive trades by more than 1,000% in 20 minutes before getting the protocol to allow him to borrow and withdraw $110 million in various cryptocurrencies, backed by the inflated collateral.
Eisenberg’s defense argued that the platform, which operated through smart contracts, allowed anyone to transact freely and that he simply exploited a vulnerability. The judge agreed, stating that Mango’s permissionless structure meant that there “was insufficient evidence of falsity” from prosecutors regarding Eisenberg’s representation to Mango Markets.
Eisenberg was arrested in December 2022, and while this case collapsed, he is still currently serving a four-year sentence handed out after he pleaded guilty to the possession of child sexual abuse material.
“From the beginning, we said this case was fatally flawed,” his attorney Brian Klein of Waymaker LLP said. “We are very pleased for Avi that the judge granted our motion and dismissed the case.”
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