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Large Liquidations Mask Whale’s Buy-the-Bitcoin-Dip Strategy: Crypto Daybook Americas

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3 недели ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The sell-off in the cryptocurrency market deepened over the past 24 hours, with bitcoin (BTC) falling below $109,000 for the first time since July 9 and ether (ETH) posting a 13% correction from the record high of around $4,950 it hit just two days ago.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indices have dropped 2% and 3.3%, respectively, indicating larger losses in the broader altcoin market.

The downside volatility toasted leveraged futures bets worth over $900 million, with long positions accounting for the majority of the tally.

The slide kicked off on Sunday, when a whale sold 25,000 BTC in an illiquid market, sparking a flash crash. Several theories have been proposed to explain the whale’s strategy, the most prominent being that they intentionally removed the bid wall — or block of buy orders — assuming that institutions would buy more through ETFs during the week, thereby lifting prices.

«This whale is showing us something bigger, they know the ETF/sovereign bid is infinite. So the only way to win is to force weak hands to puke and then accumulate back into the structural wall,» pseudonymous observer SightBringer said on X.

According to MEXC Ventures, BTC is now at an inflexion point. It could enter a period of consolidation between $110,000 and $120,000 or break lower toward $105,000 to $100,000.

«The absence of a fresh macro catalyst, such as a dovish Fed policy pivot, rate cuts, or renewed inflows, is likely to drive BTC into a period of market consolidation as the market digests the recent distribution,» MEXC’s Investment Director Leo Zhao said in an email.

Similarly, the consensus remains bullish on ether. However, the sharp decline from Sunday’s record suggests a sustained breakout to new highs will probably require a significant catalyst beyond just corporate treasury adoption.

XRP, meanwhile, lacks a clear directional trend.

«With Bollinger Bands constricting and RSI sitting at a neutral 44, but thin on buying volume, the chart is whispering of a potential retest of $2.60 to $2.00,» Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget said. «A break above the $3.10 level with conviction and volume, and a run toward $3.40 could follow. But derivative markets are skewed short, and upside stays guarded until momentum firms.»

In traditional markets, the Treasury yield curve, represented by the spread between 10- and two-year yields and 30- and two-year yields, continues to steepen as traders bet on a September Fed rate cut.

Meanwhile, longer-duration Japanese government bond yields are on the verge of hitting new multidecade highs, which could potentially inject volatility into global financial markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 27, 3 a.m.: Mantle Network (MNT), an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will roll out its mainnet upgrade to version 1.3.1, enabling support for Ethereum’s Prague update and introducing new features for platform users and developers.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases July manufactured durable goods orders data.
      • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -4% vs. Prev. -9.3%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -9.4%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Aug. 26, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases August U.S. consumer confidence data.
      • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 96.4 vs. Prev. 97.2
    • Aug. 27: The U.S. will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports related to Russian oil purchases, raising total tariffs on many goods to about 50%.
    • Aug. 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (2nd Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
      • Core PCE Prices QoQ st. 2.6% vs. Prev. 3.5%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
      • GDP Sales QoQEst. 6.3% vs. Prev. -3.1%
      • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
      • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Aug. 28, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.3%
    • Aug. 28, 6:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla. Watch live.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
    • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Blue-chip NFT collections faced steep weekly losses as ether (ETH) pulled back from record highs, wiping more than 10% off the value of most top projects.
  • Pudgy Penguins, the leading collection by trading volume, dropped 17% to a 10.32 ETH floor, showing that even the sector’s strongest liquidity magnet couldn’t escape the downturn.
  • Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) lost 14.7% to 9.59 ETH, while Doodles recorded one of the sharpest corrections, falling 18.9% to 0.73 ETH.
  • Secondary projects also slumped: Moonbirds fell 10.5%, and Lil Pudgys shed 14.6%, reflecting how price pressure cascaded across both flagship and derivative collections.
  • CryptoPunks proved most resilient, losing just 1.35% over the week, underscoring its status as the market’s defensive benchmark when risk appetite collapses.
  • Despite lower floors, trading activity stayed high. Pudgy Penguins saw 2,112 ETH ($9.36 million) in weekly volume, followed by Moonbirds (1,979 ETH), CryptoPunks (1,879 ETH), and BAYC (809 ETH).
  • Overall NFT market capitalization shrank nearly 5% to $7.7 billion, down from a $9.3 billion peak on Aug. 13. The $1.6 billion drawdown highlights how quickly capital flees when ETH slumps.
  • The sharp contrast between resilient CryptoPunks and sliding newer collections strengthens its appeal as a collateral asset. Its liquidity holds up even as broader NFT floors collapse.
  • For investors, the sell-off signals that NFT blue chips remain high-beta ETH proxies, with only legacy projects like CryptoPunks showing the defensive value that makes them the safer long-term institutional bet.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Leveraged crypto bulls have been burned, with futures bets worth $940 million liquidated in the past 24 hours. More than $800 million were long positions betting on price gains. Ether alone accounted for $320 million in liquidations.
  • Still, overall open interest (OI) in BTC remains elevated near lifetime highs above 740K BTC. In ether’s case, the OI has pulled back to 14 million ETH from 14.60 million ETH.
  • OI in SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, and LINK also dropped in the past 24 hours, indicating net capital outflows.
  • Despite the price volatility, funding rates for most major tokens, excluding SHIB, ADA and SOL, remains positive to suggest dominance of bullish long positions.
  • OI in the CME-listed standard BTC futures has fallen back to 137.3K from 145.2K, reversing the minor bounce from early this month. It shows that institutional interest in trading these regulated derivatives remains low. OI in options, however, has continued to increase, reaching its highest since late May,
  • CME’s ether futures OI remains elevated at 2.05 million ETH, just shy of the record 2.15 million ETH on Aug. 22. Meanwhile, OI in ether options is now at its highest since September last year.
  • On Deribit, the impending multibillion-dollar expiry on Friday shows a bias towards BTC puts, indicative of concerns prices are set to drop further. The impending ether expiry paints a more balanced picture.
  • Flows on the OTC desk at Paradigm have been mixed, featuring strategies such as outright put buying and put spreads in BTC, as well as calls and risk reversals in ETH.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $111,825.43 (24hrs: -0.66%)
  • ETH is up 1.55% at $4,420.50(24hrs: -2.56%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.45% at 4,003.25 (24hrs: -2.14%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 12 bps at 2.95%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1194% annualized) on Binance

CD20 Aug. 26 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is down 0.11% at 98.32
  • Gold futures are unchanged at $3,419.60
  • Silver futures are down 0.36% at $38.56
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.97% at 42,394.40
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.18% at 25,524.92
  • FTSE is down 0.61% at 9,264.86
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.87% at 5,396.84
  • DJIA closed on Monday down 0.77% at 45,282.47
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,439.32
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.22% at 21,449.29
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.58% at 28,169.94
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.38% at 2,727.04
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.5 bps at 4.30%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% at 6,447.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.13% at 23,468.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.13% at 45,293.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.6% (-0.33%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.04007 (0.79%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 944 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $53.67
  • Total fees: 2.85 BTC / $318,222
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 137,315 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.6 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.27%

Technical Analysis

BTC's daily charts. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • BTC’s recent breakdown of the ascending channel and a horizontal support line (right) looks quite similar to the bearish turnaround from $110,000 from early this year.
  • The latest move could invite stronger selling pressure, potentially yielding a deeper pullback as seen in March and early April.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $343.2 (-4.17%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $306 (-4.33%), +0.49% at $307.49
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $125.24 (-7.26%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.55 (-3.99%), -0.45% at $24.44
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $65.18 (-7.96%), -1.20% at $64.40
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.4 (-5.46%), -0.32% at $15.35
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.28 (+0.45%), -1.28% at $13.11
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.68 (+0.96%), -0.44% at $13.62
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.45 (-3.77%), unchanged in pre-market
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $28.61 (+1.13%), -0.63% at $28.43
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.02 (-4.49%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.26 (-3.92%), unchanged in pre-market
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.17 (-8.15%), +0.78% at $19.32

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $219.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $443.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $12.89 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

Stablecoin supply on Solana. (Artemis)

  • The total stablecoin supply on the Solana blockchain has increased by $11.9 billion this month, the highest since April.
  • However, the transaction volume has held low near $200 billion, having peaked at over $2 trillion in December.
  • It shows that while stablecoin supplies continue to increase, the on-chain activity has cooled.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Matt Hougan/X)(Matt_utxo/X)(Eleanor Terrett/X)(Andre Dragosch/X)(Gemini/X)

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

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6 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

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6 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

Published

7 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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