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Key Bitcoin Indicators Hint at Bearish Regime Shift as Jackson Hole Nears

Key bitcoin (BTC) indicators are signaling a potential shift to a bearish market regime as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The first one is the 180-day call-put skew derived from options trading on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest.
As of writing, the 180-day skew was negative 0.42, the lowest since June 2023, according to data source Amberdata. A negative call-put skew suggests that traders are pricing in greater demand for put options (which offer protection against price declines) relative to call options. The data can be interpreted as rising market caution or bearish sentiment over the medium term.
«BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift,» Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, said on X.
The negative reading comes across as a regime shift, as it follows two years of consistently positive values, which reflected a bias toward bullish call options.
More importantly, BTC has only pulled back by roughly 8% from its record highs above $124,000, which were reached a week ago. Yet, the long-term sentiment has flipped bearish.
According to Lakha, the price pullback has triggered demand for put options.
«BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday,» Lakha said in a blog post.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders expect Powell to signal rate cuts starting from September and if he gives what’s expected, the market may correct, according to Nansen’s research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.
«At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways to slightly bearish action, a classic “sell the news” dynamic. By contrast, if the Fed signals a deeper or faster cutting cycle than expected, that could spark fresh risk appetite and set the stage for the next bullish leg in crypto,» Sondergaard said.
Stock traders chase puts
The demand for downside protection in BTC is consistent with the activity on Wall Street, where traders have been preparing for a sell-off in the major technology stocks.
«Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index,» Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg.
Guppy multiple moving average indicator
The second indicator pointing to a bearish shift in the regime is the Guppy multiple moving average (GMMA) indicator.
Developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, the indicator is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength by analyzing the bands formed by short-term and long-term moving averages. A bullish cross occurs when the green band representing short-term moving averages crosses above the red band of long-term moving averages, indicating that upward momentum is gathering pace.
BTC’s price has crossed below the Guppy moving average bands, a sign that bulls are losing control and the long-term sentiment may be turning bearish. This is often considered a warning sign that downside momentum is about to strengthen, paving the way for pronounced price weakness.
Other indicators, such as the MACD histogram, also suggest a strengthening of the downside momentum.
Read more: Bitcoin Hovers at $113K; Solana and Dogecoin Lead Gains Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
Business
Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.
According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.
That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.
At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.
With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.
MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.
Business
HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.
The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.
The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.
Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.
Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
- HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
- Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
- Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
- The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
- Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
- High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
- Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Business
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.
Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
- The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
- These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
- Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
- A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
- The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
- The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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