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Indicators Show XRP’s Bull Run May Be Finished; $3 is the Level For Bulls to Beat: Technical Analysis

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«You’re not bullish enough!» an XRP enthusiast exclaimed on X last week after Ripple, which utilizes the token for cross-border transactions, announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped its case against them.

Many others share this excitement, and understandably so, as the conclusion of this long-standing legal battle has lifted a weight that hindered XRP’s performance compared to the broader market during the 2021 bull run. Plus, there is XRP ETF hype and hopes that the token could become a part of the U.S. strategic reserve.

That said, the recent price action does not reflect the above optimism, with key momentum indicators flashing a major bearish shift in trend, warning of a notable price slide ahead.

XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, cheering the SEC news. Since then, the follow through has been anything but bullish with prices rangebound between $2.30-$2.50, despite optimism that expected reciprocal trade tariffs from President Donald Trump on April 2 could be more measured than initially expected.

Three-line break chart

The first indicator signaling bearish trend reversal is the three-line break chart, which focuses only on price movements while filtering out short-term noise, helping identify trend changes as suggested by the market and not arbitrary/discretionary trading rules.

The chart consists of vertical blocks called lines or bars (green and red). A bull reversal happens when a green bar occurs with prices moving higher than the highest point of the last three red bars. On the contrary, a bearish shift is represented by the emergence of a new red bar that goes beyond the lowest point of the previous three green bars.

In XRP’s case, a new red bar occurred early this month in the weekly time frame and has held intact following the SEC news. The «weekly» aspect means this chart aggregates price information over a week.

The new red bar indicates a bullish-to-bearish shift in momentum. Similar patterns characterized the beginnings of prolonged bear markets in 2021 and early 2018.

MACD

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, is producing deeper bars below the zero line on the weekly chart. It’s a sign of the strengthening of the downside momentum.

The same indicator flipped positive in November, after which prices surged from $1 to above $3.

The 5- and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed bearish as well, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger bands – volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below XRP’s 20-week SMA – have widened in response to the sharp price rally in late 2024 and early this year.

Historically, prices have tended to move lower following the sharp widening of the Bollinger bands, as observed after mid-2021 and early 2018.

When bullish?

A firm move of $3, the high registered on March 2, would invalidate the bearish setup, negating the lower highs pattern to suggest a renewed bullish technical outlook.

Some analysts expect XRP to reach as high as $10 by the end of this decade.

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FalconX Said to Have Suffered Wave of Senior Staff Departures, Including General Counsel, European Head

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Crypto prime broker FalconX has seen the departure of several senior staff recently, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Among those resigning was Tommy Doyle, FalconX’s European head, according to the sources.

The global chief compliance officer, general counsel, and head of credit at FalconX have also resigned, the sources said, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is private. Two traders also exited the business, the people added.

Two of the people said the total number of departures was a combination of resignations and firings, and numbered between 10 and 15 people.

«Our headcount approximately doubled last year and we continue to grow. We do not comment on personnel matters,» a FalconX spokesperson said in an emailed comments.

Doyle declined to comment.

Prime brokers are essential to financial markets. They provide trading, financing and custody services to large institutions.

Before this wave of exits, Brian Strugats, head of trading at FalconX, had recently left the business, as reported by CoinDesk. He had worked for the firm for more than three years and was based in New York.

FalconX describes itself as the largest, most reliable digital assets prime brokerage for the world’s leading institutions. The company employed 243 people as of February 2023 according to PitchBook data.

The crypto firm was founded in 2018 and was valued at $8 billion at the time of a mid-2022 funding round.

Read more: Binance, FalconX and the Curious Case of 1.35M Missing Solana Tokens

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Now Is ‘Really Good Time’ to Buy Bitcoin, Says Trillion Dollar Investment Manager

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In a conversation at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas, which has brought together about 2,000 investment advisors and asset managers, Dominic Rizzo, global technology portfolio manager at R. Rowe Price—the firm that handles over $1 trillion in assets—said that now is a good time to have exposure to bitcoin.

He likened the price of bitcoin to a commodity and how investors should think about investing in it. “Bitcoin itself has traded very close to its average cost of mine. So if you think about it like a traditional commodity, that’s actually historically a really good time to have exposure to it when it’s close to its cost of mine,” he said.

In traditional commodity investing, when the cost of mining or extracting a commodity is close to the spot price, it often signals that the commodity’s price might have found the floor or has a limited downside. This is something contrarian investors look for when investing in commodities, as the bearish sentiment could be priced in when such an event occurs. Rizzo seems to be alluding to such a dynamic in play for bitcoin as well if one compares commodity cycles to bitcoin price.

According to MacroMicro blog, the current average price of mining bitcoin is around $84,770, while the spot price is hovering near $87,000.

How to play blockchain and AI revolution

Rizzo also said that he sees blockchain and digital payments as an integral part of fintech and artificial intelligence (AI).

“The world is getting more global, we’re moving from cash to digital payments … so, I think digital payments is really at the nexus of moving money cheaply and taking a software-driven approach to areas that have historically been not software-driven,” according to Rizzo.

He said part of this movement is blockchain, which he believes every investor should have some exposure to, whether through holding stocks of companies like Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (HOOD) or those of crypto miners profiting from the evolution of AI.

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SEC’s Crypto Task Force Will Host 4 More Industry Roundtables

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force will host four more roundtable discussions with the industry this spring, on topics ranging from tokenization to decentralized finance (DeFi).

The Crypto Task Force’s first roundtable discussion — the kick-off to what Commissioner Hester Peirce, the task force’s leader, has dubbed the SEC’s “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity” — was held in Washington, D.C., last Friday. A dozen industry lawyers spoke about issues related to the security status of tokens.

Read more: SEC ‘Earnest’ About Finding Workable Crypto Policy, Commissioners Say at Roundtable

“The Crypto Task Force roundtables are an opportunity for us to hear a lively discussion among experts about what the regulatory issues are and what the Commission can do to solve them,” Peirce said in a Tuesday announcement.

The roundtable discussions are just one example of the SEC’s radical overhaul of its approach to crypto regulation. As the agency moves away from the so-called “regulation by enforcement” practiced by former Chair Gary Gensler, its new leadership — including Pierce and Acting Chair Mark Uyeda — have signaled a desire to improve their working relationship with the crypto industry and provide clearer regulatory guidelines to industry participants.

The next roundtable discussion in the series, “Between a Block and a Hard Place: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading” is slated for April 11. The following discussions will cover topics including crypto custody (April 25), tokenization (May 12), and decentralized finance (June 6). Each of the roundtable discussions will take place in Washington, D.C., and will also be livestreamed.

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