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How Wall Street’s Relationship With Bitcoin Will Transform in 2025: 5 Predictions

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When Michael Saylor announced MicroStrategy’s conversion of $250 million in Treasury reserves to bitcoin in August 2020, Wall Street analysts dismissed it as a reckless gamble. «Superior to cash,» Saylor declared of bitcoin at the time, drawing skepticism from traditional banking circles.

Yet today, those same banks that sneered at bitcoin’s corporate adoption are now scrambling to participate in bitcoin-collateralized lending as they race to capitalize on its superior characteristics as institutional-grade collateral and a thriving product-market fit.

Traditional collateral, such as real estate, requires manual appraisals, subjective valuations and complex legal frameworks that vary by jurisdiction. Bitcoin, by contrast, offers instant verification of collateral backing through public blockchain data, 24/7 real-time settlement and liquidation capabilities, uniform quality regardless of geography or counterparty, and the ability to enforce lending terms programmatically.

When a lender realizes that they can instantly verify and potentially liquidate bitcoin collateral at 3 a.m. on a Sunday — while real estate sits waiting for manual appraisals, subjective valuations, and potential evictions— there will be no going back.

1. Traditional banking bends the knee to bitcoin.

MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) approach fundamentally altered how public companies view bitcoin as a treasury asset. Rather than simply holding bitcoin, the firm has pioneered a treasury model of leveraging public markets to amplify its crypto position — issuing convertible notes and at the market equity offerings to finance purchases of bitcoin. This strategy has allowed MicroStrategy to significantly outperform spot bitcoin ETFs by harnessing the same financial engineering that made traditional banks powerful, but with bitcoin as the underlying asset instead of traditional financial instruments and real estate.

As a result, one of my predictions for 2025 is that MSTR will announce a 10-for-1 stock split to further its market share as it will allow many more investors to purchase shares and options contracts. MicroStrategy’s playbook demonstrates just how deeply bitcoin has penetrated traditional corporate finance.

I also believe financial services built around bitcoin are set to explode in popularity as long-term holders and new investors look to get more out of their positions. We expect to see rapid growth in bitcoin-collateralized loans and yield-generating products for bitcoin holders worldwide.

Moreover, there’s an almost poetic answer to why bitcoin-backed loans have become so popular — they are a true representation of financial inclusion, with a business owner in Medellín facing the same collateral requirements and interest rates as one in Madrid. Each person’s bitcoin carries identical properties, verification standards and liquidation processes. This standardization strips away the arbitrary risk premiums historically imposed on borrowers in emerging markets.

Traditional banks marketed «global reach» for decades while maintaining vastly different lending standards across regions. Now, bitcoin-backed lending exposes this inherited inefficiency for what it is: a relic of an antiquated financial system.

2. Borders fall as capital flows freely.

Nations are entering a new era of competition for bitcoin business and capital. Consequently, we expect to see new tax incentives specifically targeting bitcoin investors and businesses in 2025. These will happen alongside fast-track visa programs for crypto entrepreneurs and regulatory frameworks designed to attract bitcoin companies.

Nations historically competed for manufacturing bases or regional headquarters. Now they compete for bitcoin mining operations, trading venues and custody infrastructure.

El Salvador’s bitcoin treasury position represents early experimentation with nation-state bitcoin reserves. While experimental, their moves and the recent proposal for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve forces traditional financial centers to confront bitcoin’s role in sovereign finance.

Other nations will study and attempt to replicate these frameworks, preparing their own initiatives to attract bitcoin-denominated capital flows.

3. Banks race against obsolescence.

In debt markets, necessity drives innovation. Public companies now routinely tap bond markets and convertible notes to finance bitcoin-related transactions. The practice has transformed bitcoin from a speculative asset into a cornerstone of corporate treasury management.

Companies like Marathon Digital Holdings and Semler Scientific have been successful in following MicroStrategy’s lead, and the market has rewarded them. This is the most important signal for treasury managers and CEOs. Bitcoin’s got their attention now.

Meanwhile, bitcoin lending markets have come a long way over the last two years. With the deadwood being cleared away, serious institutional lenders now demand proper collateral segregation, transparent custody arrangements and conservative loan-to-value ratios. This standardization of risk management practices attracts precisely the type of institutional capital that previously sat on the sidelines.

More regulatory clarity out of the U.S. should open the door for more banks to get involved in bitcoin financial products — this will benefit consumers the most, with new capital and competition driving rates down and making bitcoin-backed loans even more compelling.

4. Bitcoin and crypto M&A intensifies.

As regulatory clarity emerges through the SAB 121 resolution addressing crypto custody and other guidance, banks will face a critical choice: build or buy their way into the growing market of bitcoin & lending. As a result, we predict at least one of the top 20 U.S. banks will acquire a crypto business in the coming year.

Banks will want to move fast, and development timelines for cryptocurrency infrastructure stretch beyond competitive windows, while established firms already process billions in monthly volume through battle-tested systems.

These operational platforms represent years of specialized development that banks cannot rapidly replicate. The acquisition premium shrinks against the opportunity cost of delayed market entry.

The confluence of operational maturity, regulatory clarity and strategic necessity creates natural conditions for the banking industry’s acquisition of cryptocurrency capabilities.These moves mirror previous financial technology integration patterns in which banks historically acquired electronic trading platforms rather than building internal capabilities.

5. Public markets validate bitcoin infrastructure.

The cryptocurrency industry is poised for a breakthrough year in public markets. We expect to see at least one high-profile crypto initial public offering exceeding $10 billion in valuation in the U.S. Major digital asset companies have built sophisticated institutional service layers with revenue streams that now mirror those of traditional banks, processing billions in daily transactions, managing substantial custody operations with rigorous compliance frameworks and generating stable fee income from regulated activities.

The next chapter of finance will therefore be written not by those who resist this change but by those who recognize that their very survival depends on embracing it.

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Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Swaps $100M ETH for SOL, On-Chain Data Shows

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Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital has apparently swapped $100 million worth of ether (ETH) for solana’s SOL.

According to Wu Blockchain, on-chain data suggests that Galaxy has swapped out a considerable amount of its ETH holdings for SOL. Over the last two weeks, Galaxy has transferred 65,600 ETH – or about $105 million – to Binance and has withdrawn 752,240 SOL (approximately $98.37 million).

Galaxy may have made the move because ETH continues to be in «structural decline» according to a recent note from Standard Chartered, which slashed its year-end target price for the asset.

Data from an Arkham dashboard shows that the firm holds $87.9 million ETH versus $23.86 million SOL.

Galaxy did not immediately return a request for comment from CoinDesk.

Market data shows that in the last month, SOL is up 8% while ETH is down nearly 20%.

(TradingView)

Standard Chartered estimated in its note that Base has cut $50 billion from its market cap, but also argued that tokenized real-world assets could help stabilize Ethereum.

Many blockchain metrics would support Standard Chartered’s thesis, as transactions on Solana have rocketed past Ethereum in the last three months.

(Dune Analytics)

A Dune dashboard shows that decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on Solana has moved past $500 billion in the last three months, while DEX volume on Ethereum is less than $400 billion. Active addresses on Solana are over 220 million while Ethereum and Ethereum Layer-2 addresses are just over 80 million.

One idea, first proposed by Tron’s Justin Sun, to reverse this «structural decline» of Ethereum has been a tax on Layer-2s.

«All collected taxes will be used to repurchase ETH and burn it in a fully decentralized manner,» he wrote on X. This idea, however, hasn’t been formalized into an Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) which would be the first step in it becoming reality.

Meanwhile, flow data from the Ether ETFs shows that investors moved nearly $600 million out of these listed products over the last two months.

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U.S. Derivatives Watchdog Weighs 24/7 Action With Crypto Oversight on Horizon

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Bitcoin is the crypto sector’s top asset and is also universally defined by U.S. regulators and courts as a commodity, putting it under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That agency is now seeking public comments on whether it should open the wider world of derivatives to around-the-clock trading, as already executed for bitcoin and other digital assets.

Though the CFTC is expected to be established as a crypto market regulator in Congress’ ongoing effort to establish industry rules, the agency’s invitation for comments issued on Monday doesn’t explicitly discuss digital assets oversight. The request notes that «technological advancements and market demand» are pushing CFTC-regulated firms toward being able to handle transactions at all times.

“As I have long said, the CFTC must take a forward-looking approach to shifts in market structure to ensure our markets remain vibrant and resilient while protecting all participants,” said Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, in a statement. She was tapped by President Donald Trump to run the agency while it awaits the Senate confirmation of its chairman nominee, Brian Quintenz.

Trading without downtime presents a host of challenges for U.S. markets unaccustomed to it, according to the request, including «what governance frameworks, exchange staffing models and technologies would be necessary to ensure market integrity and operational resilience, as well as compliance with all core principles, under a continuous trading model.» Such an expansion would require firms to handle live maintenance and technology patches and human monitoring of the systems and markets during the extended hours, which are issues already long wrestled with by digital assets operations.

The CFTC would still need a change in law before it could have direct authority over actual spot-market trading of bitcoin and other tokens that aren’t eventually categorized as securities, which would get Securities and Exchange Commission oversight. If the agency is ultimately a major regulator of trading and of the platforms and firms that handle customers’ transactions, that’s a space in which 24-hour, seven-days-a-week activity is already the model.

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Can Bitcoin Benefit From Trump Firing Powell? Turkey’s Lira Crisis May Provide Clues

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The week has begun on an interesting note, with the U.S. dollar crashing to three-year lows alongside losses on Wall Street, yet bitcoin, which usually follows the sentiment on Wall Street, stands tall.

This could just be the beginning.

The shift away from the USD and toward seizure and censorship-resistant assets like BTC and stablecoins could accelerate if President Donald Trump follows through with his reported plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have pushed the DXY and U.S. stock markets lower today.

That’s the lesson from Turkey, which has seen its currency, the lira (TRY), collapse over the years mainly due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated interference in the central bank’s operations. The sliding lira has triggered a capital flight into BTC and stablecoins since at least 2020-21.

Trump’s issues with the Fed

Trump has feuded publicly with the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for years, criticizing Powell for being too late on rate cuts even during his first term when interest rates were way lower than today.

However, Trump’s criticism has recently reached a fever pitch with reports suggesting he is looking for ways to get rid of Powell, who recently warned of stagflation even as the President reiterated calls for lower borrowing costs while suggesting there is no inflation.

Powell’s patient approach follows a trade war-led spike in survey-based measures of inflation expectations, which could always become self-fulfilling.

Still, on Monday, Trump went further, calling Powell a «major loser» and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are immediately lowered.

Lesson From Turkey

Erdogan began interfering in the central bank’s operations in 2019, and since then, the lira has collapsed sevenfold from 5.3 per dollar to 38 per dollar.

It all started with Turkey’s inflation rate reaching double digits in 2017. It remained elevated in the subsequent year, which prompted the country’s central bank to increase the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.

The move likely didn’t go well with Erodgan, who issued the first decree dismissing Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) governor Murat Cetinkaya in July 2019. From then on until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees dismissing and hiring several CBT officials. Amid all this, inflation remained elevated, and the lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.

«We certainly don’t believe in high interest rates. We will pull down inflation and exchange rates with low-rate policy … High rates make the rich richer, the poor poorer. We won’t let that happen,» Erdogan said in 2021.

As of 2025, Turkey faces an inflation rate of nearly 40%, according to data source TradingEconomics.

This episode serves as a cautionary tale for Trump, highlighting that tampering with central bank independence — especially in the face of looming inflation — can erode investor confidence and send the domestic currency into a tailspin.

This does not necessarily mean that the USD will crash exactly like lira but may see significant devaluation.

Perhaps it could prove even more destabilizing for global markets, considering the dollar is a global reserve currency, and the U.S. Treasury market is the bedrock for international finance.

If better sense fails to prevail, U.S. investors may feel incentivized to move away from U.S. assets and into BTC and other alternative investments, just as Turks did.

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