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Hedge Funds Are Short Ether CME Futures Like Never Before. Is It Carry Trade or Outright Bearish Bets?

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Hedge funds hold record short positions in ether (ETH) futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), raising questions about the motivations behind these positions.

At first glance, the data could suggest that sophisticated market players anticipate price slides, as discussed on social media. However, this isn’t entirely accurate; carry trades or arbitrage plays primarily drive the record short interest, but some of these short futures trades represent outright bearish bets on the cryptocurrency, per observers.

As of the week ended Feb. 4, hedge funds held a net short position of 11,341 contracts in the CME futures, according to data tracked by ZeroHedge and the Kobeissi Letter. The number has increased 40% in one week and 500% since November, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

«There is evidence suggesting that a notable portion of the short interest in Ether futures is tied to the carry trade. Despite macro headwinds and Ether’s relative underperformance, U.S. ETH ETF inflows have remained steady over the past three months, coinciding with an increase in futures short interest—potentially signaling an uptick in basis trades,» Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.

CF Benchmarks provides reference rates that underpin CME’s bitcoin (BTC) and ether derivatives.

Carry trades, also known as basis trades, seek to profit from price discrepancies between the two markets. In ETH’s case, it involves hedge funds shorting the CME futures while simultaneously buying the spot ether ETFs listed in the U.S.

«Hedge funds, in particular, appear to be active in this trade through regulated venues, in this case selling CME Ether Futures while buying ETHA [BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF]. Additionally, Ethereum’s basis has occasionally exceeded Bitcoin’s, making Ether carry trades more attractive,» Erdosi said.

Erdosi explained that the short interest has increased by roughly $470 million recently, which corresponds with the inflow of around $480 million in spot ETFs, which validates the argument.

That said, the overall short interest in the CME futures could involve some outright bearish bets to hedge against downside risks in ether. Traders could be shorting ether futures as a hedge against long bets in the altcoin complex.

«However, not all hedge fund short interest is necessarily driven by basis trades—some may be outright shorts given ETH’s lagging performance, particularly against other programmable settlement chains like SOL and a broader rally in altcoins,» Erdosi added.

ETH options on both the CME and offshore giant Deribit show a bias for put options expiring in the near-term. It’s a sign of lingering downside fears in ether.

A put option gives the purchaser the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A put buyer is implicitly bearish on the market, looking to hedge against or profit from an expected price drop in the underlying asset. A call buy is implicitly bullish.

Long-end ETH options show pricier calls, a sign of bullish long-term expectations.

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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