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Forecasting Fed-Induced Price Swings in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP

It’s the Fed day again, and traders are seeking cues on how much volatility this key event might spark. According to Volmex’s implied volatility indices, major tokens could see price swings, but nothing out of the ordinary is anticipated.
According to data source TradingView, Volmex’s annualized one-day bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) stood at 49% as of writing, which equates to an expected 24-hour price swing of 2.56%.
In other words, bitcoin could swing by $2,470 in either direction. As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $96,500.
The expected daily volatility in percentage terms is determined by dividing the annualized percentage by the square root of 365, as the digital assets market is open 24/7. In traditional markets, conversion from annualized to daily involves the square root of 252 days.
As of writing, ETH’s annualized one-day volatility was 66%, suggesting a 24-hour price swing of 3.45%. Similarly, Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index suggested a 24-hour move of 4.3% in Solana’s SOL token.
Volmex doesn’t publish volatility indices tied to payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP. That said, the expected move in the token could be gauged from the forward implied volatility (IV) derived from options listed on Deribit.
The forward IV for May 8 was 77.98% at press time, according to data source Amberdata. That equates to a one-day expected move of 4.08%.
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 18:00 UTC, which will be followed by chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 18:30 UTC.
The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged, but commentary on the economic outlook against the trade war backdrop and possibility of a rate cut in June could move markets.
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OCC: Banks Can Buy and Sell Their Customers’ Crypto Assets Held in Custody

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates national banks, has continued its about-face to earlier resistance to cryptocurrency in banking, issuing interpretive letters that say the institutions can — at their customers’ behest — buy and sell crypto assets in custody.
The newly explained policy stance released by the OCC on Wednesday also clarified that the bankers can outsource crypto activities to third parties, including custody and executive services. As long as it all still checks the boxes of the watchdog’s safety-and-soundness requirements, the OCC is giving the banks more crypto freedom.
This week’s move follows the agency’s March reversal of a longstanding policy that demanded bankers check with their government supervisors before moving ahead with new crypto business. «These letters signal a shift in the OCC’s approach,» Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, Starkware general counsel and a former chief legal officer at Cboe Digital, noted on social media site X. She said the agency now seems to be melding crypto into traditional banking. And the additional guidance that third-parties are okay «is a boon to regulated crypto native service providers.»
Read More: OCC Says Banks Can Engage in Crypto Custody and Certain Stablecoin Activities
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Fed Stagflation Risk Signal Could Be Bullish for Bitcoin, Analyst Says

The Federal Reserve is growing increasingly alert to stagflation risks—an uneasy mix of slowing growth and rising inflation that could challenge policymakers.
While Chair Jerome Powell insisted that the economy is in «good shape» and emphasized that the central bank is in “a good position to wait and see,” prior to shifting policy, subtle changes in the central bank’s policy statement pointed to heightened concerns over the economy’s direction.
Holding its benchmark interest rate steady today, the U.S. central bank acknowledged the growing risk of rising inflation and unemployment — roughly the definition of stagflation, which last made an appearance throughout a sizable chunk of the 1970s. That scenario would leave the central bank with limited room to maneuver to stimulate a weakening economy without further fueling inflation.
“The Fed is worried about stagflation,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, posted on X after the decision. “We think that outcome would be good for bitcoin.”
In an earlier report, Pandl argued that rising tariffs contribute to stagflation, which historically hurts traditional assets but benefits scarce stores of value like gold. “Bitcoin was not around for past stagflations,” he wrote, “but can be considered a scarce digital commodity and is increasingly viewed as a modern store of value.”
Bitcoin traded in a tight range following the Fed’s announcement and Powell’s remarks. It briefly touched $97,500 earlier Wednesday on optimism around U.S.-China trade talks before settling back to $96,500 — up 1.6% over the past 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a broader gauge of the crypto market, was up just 0.3% over the same period, weighed down by 1%-3% declines in XRP, AVAX, UNI, NEAR, and AAVE.
Meanwhile, equities recovered modestly from earlier losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing 0.4% and 0.3% higher, respectively.
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Trump Crypto Advisor David Bailey In Talks to Launch Bitcoin Investment Company: The Information

David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., the owner of Bitcoin Magazine, is planning to launch a publicly traded bitcoin (BTC) investing company, The Information reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Bailey, who advised Donald Trump on crypto policy during his 2024 presidential campaign, is reportedly seeking $200 million through a private share sale and an additional $100 million in convertible debt to fund a small publicly traded firm to buy bitcoin.
The company—whose name is not known yet—will merge with BTC Inc. and be named “Nakamoto” after bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, according to the people. The deal could be announced as soon as next week.
His plans follow those of several other companies, building on the success of Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, who was able to push the company’s stock price by over 3,000% since holding bitcoin as its main treasury reserve asset and rebranding it as a bitcoin strategy company.
Last month, powerhouses SoftBank, Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald announced a $3.6 billion bitcoin investment vehicle with the intention to buy bitcoin. Earlier today, Strive Asset Management said it was merging with Asset Entities to become a publicly traded bitcoin asset management company.
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