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Focus on Market Cap, Trading Volume Rather Than Engagement for a Successful Token Launch, Research Shows

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Move over the endless X threads and VC endorsements. A deep dive into the token launch dynamics by Simplicity Group shows that token debuts are more about cold, hard fundamentals and less about hype and marketing.

The firm analyzed over 50,000 data points related to 40 crypto token launches in the first four months of the year to derive following conclusions:

Engagement isn’t everything

The popular notion in the crypto community is that increased activity on social media translates to a successful token launch. But Simplicity Group found no statistical relationship between social media engagements, particularly replies, post and likes on X (formerly Twitter) and price performance of the token in one-week after the launch.

Infact, research points to negative correlation between interactions and returns one-week and one-month after the launch – indicating that the more replies, reposts and likes the project had, the worst its price performed. «This is statistically insignificant correlation, and not caustion, yet something to note,» the report said.

However, projects with more engagement ahead of the token generation event (TGE), as a data set of its own, had stronger one-month performance likely due to broader base of awareness.

The initial market cap reality check

The research analyzed the correlation between the initial market cap (IMC) and initial circulating supply (referred to as initial float) and the price performance one-week and one-month after the TGE.

It found a strong negative correlation between a token’s IMC and its price performance. «For every 2.7x increase in IMC, there’s an approximately 1.37% drop in 1-week returns and a 1.56% drop in 1-month returns,» the report said.

The report further noted that a lower IMC usually translates into a price pump over the first week, with the strength lasting for at least a month.

Meanwhile, initial circulating supply is irrelevant for predicting one-week price performance, the report revealed, implying that the total dollar value of the initial float matters more than the percentage of supply unlocked at the launch.

Trading Volumes

The report collected volumes on TGE, one week after the launch and one month following the launch and analyzed the correlation with the price performance.

Initially the two appeared uncorrelated, but Spearman’s rank correlation showed that tokens that experienced a drop in volume tended to perform worse in price terms.

«In simpler terms, while it seemed that performance is not linearly tied to volume, tokens with higher volume retention tend [to] perform better, even if the relationship between the numerical values isn’t linear,» the report noted.

Volume retention, calculated as the ratio, refers to how much of the volume is sustained one month following the TGE.

Big money doesn’t guarantee success

Lastly, the report scrutinized a popular belief that a well-funded project backed by big VCs is destined for success. The report, however, noted that, «raising more money does not mean you will have a better token, as the extra benefits of more cash do not, statistically speaking, outweigh the costs.»

The study found little to no statistically significant relationship between the amount of money raised by a project and its token’s price performance.

Key takeaways

Simplicity Group’s quantitive analysis showed that product-driven content and genuine user engagement far outweigh generic marketing efforts in driving sustainable token success.

The study cited Bubblemaps and Kaito as projects that organically generate content related to their core product functionality, demonstrating consistent engagement and positive price performance.

In contrast, those relying on heavy memes, promotional campaigns and generic calls-to-action have seen a sharp drop in engagement immediately following the TGE, leading to weaker price outcomes. The report also stressed the need for a consistent and authentic tone in all communications, aligning with the projects overall brand target, use case and target audience.

Lastly, it highlighted the critical role of transparency and acessible technical updates in building credibility.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

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Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.

The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.

The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.

“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”

For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.

The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.

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Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Dogecoin Lag Stocks as VIX Stirs Up Some Nerves

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It’s a risk-on environment, with stocks leading major cryptocurrencies higher, but Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, is stirring up some nerves.

On Monday, Wall Street’s benchmark index, the S&P 500, set a record high for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching 6,519 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index also hit lifetime highs, and the Dow Jones traded near the peak recorded on Thursday.

Equities rose, disregarding the bearish September manufacturing survey, as bond yields fell in anticipation of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday. According to the Fed funds futures, traders expect rates to drop to 3% from the present 4.25% within the next 12 months.

BTC vs SPX price performance. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Still, bitcoin (BTC) lacked clear direction, as it traded back and forth between $114,000 and $117,000, forming an indecisive Doji candle. As of writing, it changed hands at $115,860, continuing a lacklustre trading pattern below record highs of above $124,000 hit in August.

The dour price action is likely due to long-term holders continuing to take profits and countering the bullish pressure from spot ETF inflows.

Other major tokens such as ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and dogecoin (DOGE) have lost upward momentum too.

Ethereum’s ether token has pulled back from nearly $4,800 to $4,500 in three days, having put in lifetime highs above $5,000 last month. The weakness is perplexing, as ether, popularly known as the internet bond due to its staking yield mechanism, stands to become an attractive investment with the impending Fed rate cuts.

The payments-focused XRP has pulled back to $3.00, marking a weak follow-through to the bullish breakout from the descending triangle confirmed last week. Meanwhile, dogecoin, the leading meme token by market value, has dropped sharply to 26.7 cents from 30.7 cents amid reports of whale selling.

Analysts said that a 25-basis-point rate cut could resume the slow grind higher in BTC. Meanwhile, a surprise 50 bps move could see stocks, crypto and gold go berserk.

Keep an eye on VIX and BTC vol indices

Monday’s rise in U.S. stocks was characterized by an uptick in the VIX index, which represents the options-based implied or expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.

The VIX rose over 6% to 15.68 points. While it still largely hovers at multi-month lows, the Tuesday spike warrants attention for two reasons: First, historically, the two have moved in opposite directions, as evident from the correlation of nearly -90 over a 90-day period.

Secondly, a breakdown in the negative correlation often precedes corrections, as noted by the quant-driven market intelligence platform Menthor Q on X.

«SPX rose with the VIX today. This often signals stretched upside positioning, traders grabbing calls or hedging downside [with puts], leaving markets vulnerable,» Menthor Q said.

The VIX is influenced by demand for options, and Tuesday’s rise in the index could have been led by traders seeking S&P 500 puts or downside protection.

Perhaps, market participants anticipate a correction following the expected 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday.

BTC implied volatility rises

Volmex’s bitcoin implied volatility index, which represents the expected price turbulence over 30 days, also rose by 3% Monday, maintaining its positive correlation with VIX.

Note that BTC’s historic positive correlation with implied volatility indices has flipped negative since the spot ETFs went live in January last year and more so since President Trump’s electoral win in November last year.

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Asia Morning Briefing: Fragility or Back on Track? BTC Holds the Line at $115K

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $115k in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week.

The modest pullback followed a run of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The moves left traders divided: is this recovery built on fragile foundations, or is crypto firmly back on track after last week’s CPI-driven jitters?

That debate is playing out across research desks. Glassnode’s weekly pulse emphasizes fragility. While ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week and futures open interest jumped, the underlying spot market looks weak.

Buying conviction remains shallow, Glassnode writes, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is on the rise with more than 92% of supply in profit.

Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower, which Glassnode warns leaves the market exposed if risk returns. The core message: ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot flows, BTC remains vulnerable.

QCP takes the other side.

The Singapore-based desk says crypto is “back on track” after CPI confirmed tariff-led inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of sizeable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s biggest inflow in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after ETF delays.

Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability rather than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115k as the launchpad for rotation into higher-beta assets.

The divide underscores how Bitcoin’s current range near $115k–$116k is a battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism; QCP calls it momentum. Which side is right may depend on whether ETF inflows keep offsetting profit-taking in the weeks ahead.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating near the $115,000 level as traders square positions ahead of expected U.S. Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting upside

ETH: ETH is trading near $4500 in a key resistance band; gains are being helped by renewed institutional demand, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical setups.

Gold: Gold continues to hold near record highs, underpinned by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, inflation risk, and investor demand for safe havens; gains tempered somewhat by profit‑taking and a firmer U.S. dollar

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 topped 45,000 for the first time Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework lifted sentiment.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time on Monday as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of a Fed meeting lifted stocks.

Elsewhere in Crypto

  • Coinbase App Store ranking suggests retail still on sidelines despite crypto rally (The Block)
  • Robinhood Expands Private Equity Token Push With New Venture Capital Fund (CoinDesk)
  • Strategy Adds $60 Million to Bitcoin Treasury in Smallest Buy in a Month (Decrypt)
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