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Ether-Bitcoin Ratio Signals ETH is ‘Extremely Undervalued,’ But Headwinds Remain: CryptoQuant

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The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has reached an “extremely undervalued” zone in a move that flashes a historically bullish signal — but traders betting on a sharp ether (ETH) recovery may want to pause.

(CryptoQuant)

According to data from on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, the ETH/BTC market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has dropped to multi-year lows to reach levels that have previously marked periods of ETH outperformance against BTC.

The exchange rate for the two tokens, conventionally called a ratio, peaked above 0.08 in late 2021. The ETH/BTC ratio was 0.019 at press time, down more than 75% from record highs.

MVRV is a metric that compares a token’s current market cap to its realized capitalization, or the value of each coin based on the price it was last moved on the blockchain. This effectively reflects the average cost basis of all coins in circulation.

But the setup may not be as straightforward this time. Network activity remains flat and core usage metrics like transaction count and active addresses have seen little momentum since the last bull run, CryptoQuant said.

The increase in ether total supply is directly tied to the sharp decline in fees burned, as shown in the above chart, showing burn activity falling to near zero. The reason behind this shift is the Dencun upgrade, implemented in March 2024, which significantly reduces transaction fees across the network, the firm said.

Ethereum’s network activity has remained largely flat since 2021, with no sustained growth in usage over the past three years. This stagnation is echoed across key metrics such as transaction volume and active addresses, indicating that Ethereum’s base layer has not experienced meaningful expansion in on-chain activity.

(CryptoQuant)

Meanwhile, the growth of Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Base has come at the cost of mainnet activity. This cannibalization dynamic reduces base layer fees and weakens ETH’s value accrual narrative.

Institutional demand is also cooling: “Investor demand for ETH as a yield and institutional asset is weakening, as evidenced by declining staked ETH and lower balances held by ETFs and other investment vehicles,” CryptoQuant wrote.

“The total value staked has fallen from its all-time high, while fund holdings continue to trend downward, indicating reduced confidence from crypto-native participants and traditional investors,” it added.

The amount of ETH staked has declined notably from it’s all-time high of 35.02 million ETH in November 2024 to around 34.4 million ETH, suggesting that investors may be reallocating capital or seeking more liquid positions amid a less favorable market environment.

Additionally, ETH balances in investment products have fallen by about 400,000 ETH since early February, highlighting a broader decline in institutional demand.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has continued to rise despite a macroeconomic environment, touching nearly $100,000 earlier on Thursday as its appeal as a safe-haven asset grows among investors.

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Trump’s Memecoin Dinner Questioned by Top Democrat on House Judiciary Committee

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A senior Democrat in the House of Representatives, Jamie Raskin, joined his name to lawmakers seeking answers about President Donald Trump’s recent dinner for top investors in his memecoin, sending questions directly to Trump.

Raskin, the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, has been a vocal critic of the president and becomes the latest of many from his party to probe details about the event, which they’ve called out as evidence of White House corruption. Because Raskin is in the minority party, his demands are unlikely to lead to further congressional action unless they regain the House or Senate in next year’s elections.

«I write today to demand that you release the names of all the attendees at this dinner and provide information about the source of the money they each used to buy $TRUMP coins, so that we can prevent illegal foreign government emoluments from being pocketed without congressional consent,» Raskin wrote this week to the president, joining many counterparts in the Senate in seeking the information, including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy and Richard Blumenthal.

«We deserve to know who is paying for access to our president, and what steps you took to ensure that the funds you receive are legitimate and legal, rather than the proceeds from foreign states or monarchs or illegal activities,» Rasking said, specifically highlighting Tron founder Justin Sun, a guest who was a major early investor in Trump’s family crypto operations.

Read More: Democrats Threaten Lawsuits, Join Protests Ahead of Trump Memecoin Dinner

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FTX Repayments May Have Positive Market Impact: Coinbase

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The FTX Recovery Trust will begin distributing over $5 billion in cash and stablecoins to creditors starting on Friday, with funds expected to land in accounts within the next three business days via BitGo and Kraken.

And there’s a chance this wave of repayments will help lift the crypto market, analysts at Coinbase wrote in a report on Friday.

It’s the second major round of repayments following the exchange’s collapse. The first, which began on Feb. 18, returned roughly $7 billion to creditors with claims under $50,000. That did little to lift broader crypto markets at the time, which remained under pressure from macro headwinds.

This latest wave of distributions comes as investor sentiment has shifted, the analysts said. Payments will arrive in stablecoins, offering recipients immediate on-chain liquidity, instead of cash and crypto. That could influence whether the funds are reinvested.

There’s also a broader sense of optimism in crypto markets, thanks in part to a rally in major assets and increased political clarity around regulation. Institutional players, in particular, may feel more comfortable acting on incoming funds, especially as Congress moves closer to passing legislation that would define the roles of U.S. regulators overseeing digital assets.

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Judge Declines to Order DOJ to Review Records in Roman Storm Case

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The federal judge overseeing Roman Storm’s prosecution declined to order the Department of Justice to review its records for any materials it might have missed that would help the Tornado Cash developer at the end of a 30-minute hearing Friday morning, though she told the government it should not have any disclosure issues.

Judge Katherine Polk Failla also ruled that there were no Brady violation concerns with the Department of Justice’s conversations with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) about whether mixers needed to register as money transmitters — the conversation that prosecutors pursuing Samourai Wallet developers had with FinCEN officials, but not the prosecutors on Storm’s case — one of the DOJ representatives said in the phone conference on Friday.

If the judge had found that prosecutors had withheld information, it could affect the case moving forward.

«I’m not going to require a further review based on the representations made that there’s no additional material of this type, and based on my views that I don’t believe the material was exculpatory,» she said.

«There’s a difference between ‘this is something I’d like to know’ and ‘this is a Brady violation,'» the judge said, referring to a Supreme Court precedent that requires prosecutors to share any and all information that might help a defendant with the defendant’s team.

Storm’s defense attorneys argued during the hearing that they needed to know when the prosecutors in their case learned about the FinCEN conversation.

«They do plan to say they’re charging a conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter,» said defense attorney Brian Klein. «My question is who are they supposed to be licensed with? … this is all in the same issue. They’ve only dropped one subpart … but they’re still going to say they’re charging an unlicensed money business.»

Thane Rehn, a prosecutor who worked on the DOJ case against Sam Bankman-Fried, said that his team wouldn’t argue that Tornado Cash needed to secure a license.

«The word ‘license’ doesn’t apply here and the jury won’t be instructed on licensing issues … what we intend to prove at trial is the defendant knew they were transmitting funds derived from criminals,» he said.

The judge did at multiple points ask the prosecutors if they planned to change any other theories or charges in the weeks leading up to the trial, saying doing so might be unfair to the defense. The trial is supposed to kick off in less than two months.

Read more: DOJ Will Still Pursue Roman Storm Case Despite Blanche Memo, Prosecutors Say

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