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Elon Musk Joins Bitcoin Maxis in Warning of ‘Potential’ U.S. Fiscal Collapse or Are We There Already?

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3 недели ago

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Last month, CoinDesk discussed in detail how bond market activity is challenging the notion that the U.S. government is good for money, raising questions on the long-held «kayfabe» or illusion of fiscal stability.

Now, billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has raised the alarm on X through his [perhaps rightful] diatribe against President Donald Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill, which is projected to boost the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion over ten years.

That’s happening at a time when mounting fiscal concerns are already driving investors away from U.S. assets and into alternatives, such as bitcoin and gold. As of FY 2024, the fiscal deficit stood at $1.8 trillion, and as of today, the national debt is already at $36 trillion, with annual interest payments amount to $1.13 trillion.

Someone as influential and popular as Musk taking fiscal concerns public could result in two things: First, it could accelerate the shift away from U.S. assets. Is it merely a coincidence that at a time like this, corporate treasury adoption of bitcoin and other tokens, including XRP, has picked pace?

Secondly, investors concerned about the government’s fiscal health are likely to demand a higher inflation-adjusted yield to lend money to the government. So, expect yields to remain sticky on the higher side, further complicating the fiscal situation and economic growth.

Government is bankrupt, at least in theory

Bitcoin BTC believers, have been warning of this day for a long time. To paraphrase a former CoinDesk employee, «Crypto may not have all the right answers, but it does ask correct questions.»

The popular narrative has been that the U.S. government is bankrupt, and the dollar is headed for a collapse. According to Musk, the government risks bankruptcy if fiscal prudence isn’t restored.

In theory, the government has been bankrupt for decades. That’s evident from the repeated debt ceiling lift-offs over the years.

Congress set the first federal debt limit at $45 billion in 1939, granting the Treasury wide discretion over the use of borrowing instruments as long as the total debt does not exceed the self-imposed limit.

Since then, the ceiling has been repeatedly hit and raised, a sign of fiscal crisis and, in many ways, form of hiding bankruptcy. As of 2025, the debt limit stands at $36 trillion! That’s right trillion.

This brings to my mind a joke by an Indian standup comedian about government officials artificially raising the danger mark during floods, to create the illusion of control and normalcy.

Similarly, repeatedly raising the debt ceiling has been an attempt to mask the country’s fiscal bankruptcy.

The debt-based fiat system may be broken

For at least a decade, Bitcoin believers have been saying that the monetary system is broken and we need to fix the «money» – essentially the debt-based fiat money.

And they may be right, as the government debt-to-GDP ratios across the advanced world have risen past 100%, a sign that the debt-based fiat money’s ability to generate growth has collapsed.

A blog post on Mises Institute described the debt-based fiat money (paper money with a government stamp backed by nothing) as follows:

«The government and powerful bankers established a system in 1913 that typically works like this: Every dollar of the monetary base (or “narrow money” or “high-powered money”) comes into existence with a one-to-one increase in the public debt, collectively owed by the taxpayers. Then, private banks use that base to create more dollars (in “broad money”) that come into existence with a one-to-one increase in private debt.»

«Going the other way, if people in the private sector ever paid off all of their debts, and the federal government paid off all of its bondholders, then the supply of U.S. dollars would be virtually extinguished.»

«This is the sense in which our fiat-money, fractional-reserve system uses “debt-based money.” Although market prices are flexible and can react to deflation much better than most people realize, it is still true that our system is tragically absurd.»

A debt-to-GDP ratio above 100% means that the total government debt exceeds the nation’s annual economic output. In such a situation, for every additional dollar borrowed by the government and invested in the economy, the resulting impact (multiplier effect) is less than one dollar – that is, the return on additional borrowed funds diminishes.

To explain in the context of the law of diminishing returns/utility, the marginal utility of each additional dollar spent in generating growth is negative.

It also means that extra debt no longer generates productive economic growth and may actually be harmful. Imagine gorging on your favorite ice cream without a break (just as governments gorging on borrowed money for decades); eventually, at some stage, you will throw up. That’s where we are in terms of fiscal finances and the debt-to-GDP ratios in the U.S. and other advanced nations.

What next?

Economist Russel Napier, known for his expertise on debt and fiscal policy, has discussed several steps governments are likely to take to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios.

These include engineering higher nominal GDP growth through a structural level of inflation, which is what many countries, including the U.S. and the U.K., did to inflate away debt after World War II.

Allowing moderate inflation to erode the real value of the debt, thereby reducing debt servicing and lowering the ratio, could galvanize demand for assets like gold and bitcoin.

Other steps could include devaluing currencies and implementing capital controls and financial repression, all of which could bode well for alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies.

On a lighter note, reducing fiscal spending – a strategy initially promoted by Trump – might be the only way to get the economy back on track.

Consider this medical analogy.

When your body is exposed to excessive blood sugar over an extended period, cells tend to develop insulin resistance, leading to type 2 diabetes. Doctors often recommend fasting to help restore insulin sensitivity.

Similarly, curbing fiscal spending could be the only way to meaningfully lower the debt-to-GDP ratio below 100%, thereby restoring the effectiveness of the debt-based fiat system’s ability to generate growth.

That said, what if governments fail? The debt-based fiat system may be truly over then, intensifying the search for alternatives, with blockchain and crypto as potential options.

Let’s see how things unfold.

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Bitcoin-Gold Price Ratio’s 10% Surge Greenlights Bullish Flag Pattern: Technical Analysis

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1 час ago

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30 июня, 2025

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This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

The ratio between the per-piece dollar price of bitcoin (BTC) and gold’s (XAU) per-ounce dollar-denominated price rose over 10% to 33.33 last week, registering its best performance in two months, according to data source TradingView.

The double-digit gain, representing BTC’s outperformance relative to gold, marked a breakout from the bull flag pattern. The so-called flag breakout signals a continuation of the rally from lows near 24.85 reached on April 11.

A bull flag pattern is characterized by a sharp uptrend followed by a relatively brief counter-trend consolidation that usually refreshes higher, as is the case with the BTC-gold ratio.

The flag breakout is said to extend the upside by an amount equivalent to the magnitude of the initial rally. So, the ratio could rise to 42.00, topping the record high of 40.73 hit in December.

BTC/Gold ratio and BTC/USD's daily charts. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Previous uptrends in the ratio have been characterized by sharp upswings in BTC’s dollar-denominated price, as observed in late 2024 and in April and May, rather than gold dropping more than BTC.

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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin ‘Calm Rarely Lasts’

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1 час ago

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30 июня, 2025

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Just bet on the price movement, not the direction.

That’s the message from a market maker as bitcoin (BTC) continues to bore traders with prices caught in crosswinds of continued ETF inflows and selling by long-term holders.

Its solidity above $100,000 has sparked a meltdown in volatility metrics, including Deribit’s DVOL, which measures the 30-day implied or expected BTC price turbulence. The index fell below an annualized 40%, the lowest in nearly two years.

«Compared to equities, Tesla and Coinbase vols are ~50% richer, highlighting just how quiet crypto has become,» Jimmy Yang, a co-founder of institutional liquidity provider Orbit Markets, told CoinDesk. «But calm rarely lasts. Historically, vol tends to bounce from here. With direction unclear — breakout or breakdown — going long volatility via vol swaps offers a clean way to position for a return of movement.»

A volatility swap is a forward contract that allows investors to trade the future realized volatility of an underlying asset. Another way to bet on price turbulence is through volatility futures, and some traders are already doing so.

Perpetuals linked to Volmex Finance’s bitcoin and ether (ETH) implied volatility indices (BVIV and EVIV, respectively) debuted on the decentralized leverage trading platform gTrader last week. The cumulative trading volume in these perpetuals is fast approaching the $1 million mark.

In other news, President Donald Trump said he wants interest rates cut to 1% from the current range of 4.25%-4.0% and would «love» it if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell were to resign. The Fed, however, is unlikely to cut rates unless the labor market softens, according to Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard. That data is due later this week.

National Bank of Kazakhstan Governor Timur Suleimenov reportedly said the country will establish a crypto reserve, which will be managed by a National Bank affiliate. Meanwhile, Bhutan detailed plans to develop crypto-backed tourism to attract high-value global travelers.

Leading Ethereum liquid staking platform, Lido, implemented a two-way governance structure, allowing holders of staked ether (stETH) to delay or block proposals made by holders of LDO, its native token. The stETH holders can do so by locking in their tokens in an escrow contract.

In traditional markets, Nasdaq E-mini futures rose 0.6% to new lifetime highs, suggesting a return of the «U.S. exceptionalism narrative.» The dollar index, however, showed little signs of life. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • June 30: BNB Chain (BNB) activates the Maxwell hard fork on BNB Smart Chain mainnet, halving block times 0.75 seconds to enhance transaction speed, validator coordination and network scalability.
    • June 30: CME Group will launch spot-quoted futures, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.
    • June 30: Zilliqa (ZIL) launches a new staking platform at stake.zilliqa.com, enabling instant staking and unstaking with no waiting period, and offering a boosted APR starting at 55.85% for early users, following the Zilliqa 2.0 mainnet upgrade.
    • June 30, 11 a.m.: Robinhood Markets is hosting «Robinhood Presents: To Catch a Token,» its first international crypto-focused keynote from the French Riviera. Livestream link.
  • Macro
    • Day 1 of 3: ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal)
    • July 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 49.4
    • July 1, 9:30 a.m.: “High Level Policy Panel” discussion chaired by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Livestream link.
    • July 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 52 vs. Prev. 52
    • July 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 48.8 vs. Prev. 48.5
    • July 1, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April U.S. labor market data (i.e. the JOLTS report).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.45M vs. Prev. 7.391M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.194M
    • July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
    • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
      • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 129K vs. Prev. 139K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Prev. -8K
    • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 239K vs. Prev. 236K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Prev. 1974K
    • July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.6
    • July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
      • Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
    • July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. 50.3 vs. Prev. 49.9
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Lido DAO is voting on updating its Block Proposer Rewards Policy to SNOP v3. The proposal sets new standards for node operators, including use of vetted APMs and clearer responsibilities to enhance decentralization, fair rewards, and operational security. Voting ends June 30.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold to 4.5% from 5% of votable tokens. This aims to match decreased voter participation and help well-supported proposals pass more easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
    • The Polkadot community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • Unlocks
    • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $16.65 million.
    • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $122.75 million.
    • July 2: Ethena ENA to unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.93 million.
    • July 11: Immutable IMX to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $11.15 million.
    • July 12: Aptos APT to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $54.97 million.
    • July 15: Starknet STRK to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $15.11 million.
  • Token Launches
    • July 1: VeChain (VET) to launch a new staking program with a 5.3 billion VHTO reward pool.
    • July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to be delisted from Binance.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

  • Tokenized securities look to be the theme for the second half of 2025 after the memecoin trading frenzy started dying down to what is now a fraction of its former volumes.
  • On Friday, Dinari, an on-chain protocol for tokenized securities offerings, secured a broker-dealer license in the U.S. It’s now waiting for approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to start its offerings in the country.
  • In Europe, meantime, centralized exchange Gemini has already introduced tokenized equities for users.
  • Coinbase is also working on getting SEC approval for tokenized stock trading, while several other platforms including Superstate and Republic have already introduced similar offerings, including for pre-IPO firms like SpaceX.
  • Cryptocurrency firms have in the past attempted to introduce tokens backed by securities, but their efforts were shut down by regulators around the world.
  • Memecoin trading volumes, meanwhile, have slumped. Token launchpad Pump.fun saw monthly volume plunge from $11.6 billion in January to $3.5 billion this month, according to DeFiLlama data.
  • Those volumes were also affected by growing competition. Decentralized exchange Raydium debuted LaunchLab to compete with Pump.fun earlier this year. Its 30-day volume is just under $300 million.

Derivatives Positioning

  • While BTC jumped over 7% last week, open interest in offshore perpetuals dropped slightly with spot volumes staying low. The diverging trends raise a question mark on the sustainability of any gains. The ETH market showed similar patterns.
  • Perpetual funding rates for most major coins remain mildly positive, implying a cautiously bullish stance. XLM had deeply negative funding rates in a sign that traders chasing bearish short positions.
  • Ether CME futures open interest has pulled back from the record 1.39 million ETH to 1.26 million ETH. Positioning in the BTC CME futures remains light.
  • On on-chain options platform Derive, traders chased BTC put options in the July 11 expiry, reflecting downside fears. On Deribit, BTC risk reversals held flat across most tenors, indicating a lack of clear directional bias.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.36% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $107,554.22 (24hrs: +0.55%)
  • ETH is up 1.1% at $2,453.92 (24hrs: -0.12%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.86% at 3,012.02 (24hrs: -0.59%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.88%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0008% (0.8497% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.16% at 97.24
  • Gold futures are up 0.32% at $3,298.00
  • Silver futures are down 0.16% at $36.31
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.84% at 40,487.39
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.87% at 24,072.28
  • FTSE is down 0.32% at 8,771.04
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.32% at 5,308.51
  • DJIA closed on Friday up 1% at 43,819.27
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.52% at 6,173.07
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 20,273.46
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.22% at 26,692.32
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,657.01
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.253%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6,248.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.61% at 22,890.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.48% at 44,335.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.47 (+0.18%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0229 (-0.78%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 845 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $58.19
  • Total Fees: 2.86 BTC / $307,544
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 156,365
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.7 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.26%

Technical Analysis

Dollar index. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency’s value against major fiat peers, appears on track to slip into an ominous-sounding death cross on the weekly chart.
  • The death cross occurs when the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) dips below the 200-week SMA to suggest a deeper downtrend.
  • The occurrence of the indicator, however, has consistently marked bottoms since 2008.

Crypto Equities

Starting today, the price quoted for Galaxy Digital will be for its Nasdaq-traded shares.

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $383.88 (-0.66%), +1.48% at $389.55 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $353.43 (-5.77%), +1.07% at $357.20
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $180.43 (-15.54%), -2.89% at $175.21
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $19.97 (-2.49%), +2.2% at $20.41
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.03 (-1.57%), +0.53% at $15.11
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.55 (+0.38%), +1.71% at $10.73
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.65 (+1.77%), +4.62% at $17.42
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.67 (-1.3%), +1.12% at $10.79
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $21.71 (+0.98%), +1.38% at $22.01
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.50 (-0.75%), +1.06% at $38.91
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.85 (+0.1%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $501.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $48.85 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.24 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $77.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $4.2 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~4.08 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

LINK weekly net inflows/outflows. (Coinglass)

  • Centralized exchanges registered a net inflow of $9.51 million in oracle service Chainlink’s LINK token last week, snapping a multiweek trend of outflows.
  • Token inflows to exchanges are said to represent investor intention to liquidate holdings.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

In 21 years, you'll wish you'd bought more.what stops this train?fixed it for you The conversation has changed in 2025. The Big Beautiful Bill will add roughly $3.3 Trillion to the U.S. Deficit warns the Congressional Budget Office

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Backed Finance Debuts Tokenized Stocks on Bybit, Kraken and Solana DeFi Protocols

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1 час ago

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30 июня, 2025

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Real-world asset tokenization firm Backed Finance is launching its tokenized stock offering on major crypto exchanges, and Solana (SOL)-based decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, bringing equities like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft and crypto-native platforms closer.

The offering includes some 60 equity and ETF tokens that are available for trading around-the-clock, the company said on Monday.

Crypto exchanges Bybit and Kraken are first to allow trading with the tokens, followed by integrations with DeFi apps Kamino Swap, Raydium and Jupiter later in the day, the press release said. The tokens will soon be available as collateral for DeFi lending, too, Backed said.

The move comes as momentum grows for bringing traditional financial instruments including equities onto blockchain rails, also known as tokenization of real-world assets. Crypto exchanges, such as Coinbase and Gemini, are seeking to expand into tokenized securities trading, while Robinhood was reportedly working on offering tokenized U.S. stocks for EU users.

Backed’s rollout fits into that trend. The firm is orchestrated the xStocks Alliance, a group of exchanges and DeFi apps committed to building an open onchain market for real-world assets.

«xStocks represent a monumental leap forward in democratizing access to financial markets,» Adam Levi, co-founder of Backed, said in a statement.

«By bringing familiar assets onto the blockchain with unprecedented accessibility, we are not just bridging traditional finance and DeFi; we are building the foundational blocks for a truly open, efficient, and inclusive global financial system where everyone can participate in wealth creation,» Levi said.

Read more: Gemini Rolls Out Tokenized Stocks in EU, Starting With Strategy Shares

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