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Don’t Expect Bitcoin Fireworks Ahead of New Year, Traders Say, as BTC ETFs Lose $420M
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Bearish trading in bitcoin (BTC) markets continued late Monday as the asset briefly fell under $92,000 on profit-taking despite another mammoth MicroStrategy purchase, recovering to just over $92,800 as of Asian morning hours Tuesday.
Some traders expect the current price action to likely continue until February, weeks after president-elect Donald Trump takes office in the U.S. and sets into motion a barrage of policies that may help the market.
«We are skeptical of any New Year fireworks especially with funding healthy,» traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast. «January’s average returns (+3.3%) are relatively similar to December’s (+4.8%), and we could expect spot to remain in this range in the near-term before things start to pick from Feb onwards.»
«Options flows are also reflecting similar sentiments with frontend vols drifting lower and risk-reversals most bid for Calls in March, partly due to significant March (120k-130k) Calls bought last Friday,» they added. This means traders are betting on bitcoin prices going up in March. They’re buying more call options (which profit if the stock rises) than put options. The cost of these options is going down, showing optimism for the March period.
BTC is on track to end December down 4%, its worst since 2021, as both retail investors and long-term holders cash out positions after a 117% yearly surge. Elsewhere, readings of the U.S. Chicago PMI indicate an economic slowdown, adding pressure on the market that tends to be correlated to such data.
In what looks to have been its final purchase of the year, Bitcoin development company MicroStrategy increased its BTC stash for the eighth consecutive week on Monday, adding another 2,138 BTC for $209 million in the week ended Dec. 29. That brought its total holdings to 446,400 BTC.
But news of the buying did little to stem losses. BTC prices slumped in the hours following MicroStrategy’s announcement, while shares of the company fell 8% to their lowest since early November.
The fall spread over to majors, with ether (ETH), XRP, Solana’s SOL and Cardano’s ADA falling as much as 3% before recovering. BNB Chain’s BNB was little changed, while memecoins dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu (SHIB) fell 5%.
The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, minus stablecoins, lost 2.7% in the past 24 hours.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding the asset recorded $420 million in outflows in their second-last day of trading ahead of the new year, data shows. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $154 million to lead outflows, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $130 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $36 million.
The products have recorded more than $1.5 billion in net outflows since Dec. 19, pausing an impressive run in the first half of the month that saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows. Large outflows can reflect a shift in investor sentiment, possibly moving toward a more cautious or bearish outlook on bitcoin’s short-term performance.
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U.S. Law Enforcement Seizes $31M in Crypto Tied to Uranium Finance Hack
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U.S. authorities have seized about $31 million in crypto tied to the 2021 hack of Uranium Finance, according to a Monday X post from the Southern District of New York (SDNY).
According to the post, the seizure was the result of a joint effort between SDNY and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in San Diego. A spokesperson for SDNY did not return CoinDesk’s request for comment before press time, and no further details about the seizure or any related investigation were immediately available.
Uranium Finance was essentially a clone of automated market maker (AMM) Uniswap deployed on Binance’s BNB chain (then called Binance Smart Chain). In April 2021, a hacker exploited a bug in Uranium’s pair contracts to steal $50 million in various tokens. At the time of the incident, the Uranium Finance hack was one of the largest monetary exploits in decentralized finance (DeFi) history.
Read more: Binance Chain DeFi Exchange Uranium Finance Loses $50M in Exploit
After the exploit, the hacker attempted to launder a portion of the funds in a variety of ways, including using crypto mixer Tornado Cash, depositing small amounts of crypto into centralized exchanges, and, according to blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, perhaps through purchasing rare and highly valuable Magic: The Gathering trading cards.
Uranium Finance shuttered after the hack, leaving victims without answers or financial restitution. The partial recovery, which comes nearly four years after the initial attack, offers the first glimmer of hope for victims to see some of their money returned.
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Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade Goes Live on ‘Holesky’ Testnet, But Fails to Finalize
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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the Holesky testnet on Monday but failed to finalize in the expected time.
Pectra was activated on the Holesky testnet at 21:55 UTC (4:55 p.m. ET), but did not initially finalize according to blockchain data.
Finality is the state in which, once a transaction is confirmed and added to a block, it is immutable and cannot be reversed. A testnet is a network that copies a main blockchain (in this case Ethereum), and is used to test upgrades or new code before it goes to the main network.
It is not immediately clear why the Pectra upgrade did not finalize on Holesky. Ethereum developers were discussing Monday over the Eth R&D Discord channel what the issue could be.
This is not the first time an upgrade has not finalized on an Etheruem test network. In January 2024, when the developers were testing the Dencun upgrade, the hard fork did not initially finalize on the Goerli testnet.
What is Pectra?
The Pectra hard fork combines together 11 major upgrades, or «Ethereum improvement proposals» (EIPs), into one package. At the heart of this is EIP-7702, which is supposed to improve the user-experience of crypto wallets. The proposal, which was scribbled by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in just 22 minutes, will allow wallets to have some smart contract capabilities, as part of a broader strategy to bring account abstraction to Ethereum — a concept that makes the usability of wallets a lot less clunky.
Another key proposal, EIP-7251, will allow validators to increase the maximum amount they can stake from 32 to 2,048 ETH. The proposal is supposed to ease some of the technicalities that validators who stake ETH face today: Those that stake more than their 32 ETH have to spread that across multiple validators, making the process a bit of a nuisance. By lifting the maximum stake limit and combining those validators, it could speed up the process of setting up new nodes.
Holesky is the first of two testnets to run through a simulation of Pectra. The next test is supposed to occur on the Sepolia testnet on Mar. 5. But according to Christine Kim, a Vice President of Research at Galaxy, developers could delay it depending on the scale of today’s issue.
After Pectra goes live on both testnets, developers will ink in a final date to activate the upgrade on mainnet.
Pectra was originally on track to be Ethereum’s biggest upgrade to date, and it’s the first big change to the blockchain in almost a year. Developers decided that Pectra was too ambitious, and they agreed to split the original package into two.
Read more: Ethereum Developers Finally Schedule ‘Pectra’ Upgrade
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Bitcoin Slips Under $94K as Stocks Try to Shake Last Week’s Jitters
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Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Monday, hurt by not just by massive bearish price action in most of the rest of crypto, but also as U.S. stocks struggle to pull out of their recent downturn.
Falling to about $93,900 as stocks closed, bitcoin is down 1.9% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is lower by 5.9% over the same time frame. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5.1%.
Following last week’s major declines, an attempted rally by the major U.S. stock averages failed Monday afternoon, with the Nasdaq closing down another 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.5%.
The worst performer among the major cryptos was solana’s (SOL), down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and a whopping 41% over the past month. In addition to its role in what appears to be a fading memecoin craze, SOL is also facing token unlocks in March and a 30% increase in SOL inflation due to the recent implementation of SIMD-96, which adjusted the network’s fee structure. At $151 at press time, SOL has now more than given up its post-election gains.
“Trying to communicate to folks who may be feeling complacency/denial that $95,000 is still not a bad exit price relative to where I think we could trade in 6-12 months,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, a crypto hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data for its trades, posted on social media.
Thompson estimated that there was an 80% chance that bitcoin won’t make new highs over the next three months and a 51% chance we won’t see new highs for even the next 12 months.
Turning to the U.S. economy, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said risks to the labor market are growing. Real incomes are slowing down, the housing market is getting worse, state and local governments are pulling back on spending. Worryingly, market consensus sees no economic slowdown in sight, with GDP median forecast at roughly 2.5%.
“If 2023 was about being surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being surprised to the downside,” Dutta wrote.
“A passive tightening of monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has important implications for financial market investors,» Dutta continued. «I would anticipate a decline in longer-term interest rates and a selloff in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs market.”
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