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Dogecoin Futures Set New Record as Analysts Target $1 DOGE in 2025

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AI Agents and stock market parody tokens may have been all the rage in recent weeks, but big players are active in dogecoin (DOGE) markets, with some targeting a $1 level in 2025.

Data from multiple sources shows an uptick in interest from whales, a colloquial term for wealthy and influential market participants, with a spike in transactions worth above $100,000 over the weekend. Such activity may serve as a precursor to a move higher.

January has historically served as the memecoin’s best-performing month with an average return of 85%, data shows, though it had outlier performances of 250% and 700% in 2014 and 2021, respectively. It has a median performance of 5%, the second-highest after 8% for October.

Futures markets tracking the token set a fresh record in terms of open interest on Monday, with number of active contracts zooming to 10.35 billion DOGE from 7.50 billion DOGE over the weekend. That has surpassed a March 2024 peak of 10 billion DOGE, data from CoinGlass shows.

Open interest is the total number of unsettled derivative contracts. A bump in open interest can signal new money entering the market, potentially confirming current price trends and indicating upcoming volatility.

High open interest might suggest a strong trend continuation. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole expects prices to reach 50 cents in the coming weeks, based on price-chart analysis.

“DOGE has risen back above the closely monitored 50-day SMA, coinciding with a renewed upswing in the 10-day SMA, signaling a bullish bias,” Godbole said. “Additionally, the discount on Coinbase compared to Binance has disappeared. This suggests a strong likelihood that prices will break through the current three-day resistance at $0.40, potentially pushing toward 50 cents and beyond.”

SMA, or simple moving average, is a measure of average prices for any asset over a specified period that can be used to determine resistance and support levels.

“However, trading volumes on Coinbase remain low compared to the levels seen during the November rally, which warrants caution as long as the $0.40 resistance remains intact,” he added.

Some expect DOGE to touch a memetic milestone level of $1 in 2025, a nearly 50% higher target than the token’s lifetime peak of 70 cents in 2021.

“Dogecoin will finally hit $1, with the world’s largest and oldest memecoin touching a $100bn market cap,” Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn wrote in a markets predictions post for the year. “However, the Dogecoin market cap will be eclipsed by the Department of Government Efficiency, which will identify and successfully enact cuts in amounts exceeding Dogecoin’s 2025 high-water mark market cap.”

Much of DOGE’s rally in recent has been fueled by bullish sentiment around the meme’s endorsement by technology entrepreneur Elon Musk in the Trump administration.

Musk has kickstarted plans for a “Department of Government Efficiency,” abbreviated as D.O.G.E, to make government spending more efficient.

That has fueled expectation among traders that there could be more chatter of “DOGE” in mainstream media and retail trading circles, fueling attention and interest in dogecoin, as a CoinDesk analysis first noted in mid-October.

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Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

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Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.

According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.

That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.

That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.

At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.

With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.

MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.

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HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

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HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.

The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.

The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.

Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
  • HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
  • Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
  • Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
  • The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
  • Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
  • High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
  • Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

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The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.

Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
  • The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
  • These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
  • Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
  • A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
  • The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
  • The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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