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DeFi Carry Trade Takes Root and Dino Coins Reemerge: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
It was only a matter of time before the bitcoin bull market reignited excitement in the DeFi sector, and guess what? Chatter is heating up about a potential “carry trade” that uses DeFi protocol Ethena’s yield-bearing staked USDe (sUSDe) to borrow stablecoins like USDC and USDT from the lending giant Aave.
Those stablecoins are then flipped back for USDe, yielding a sweet return from the juicy spread between sUSDe’s near 30% annualized yield and AAVE’s variable borrowing rates, currently less than 20%. The return is way better than ether’s staking yield of under 4% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury’s 4.24%.
If the trade becomes popular, the arbitrage window could eventually close, with borrowing rates potentially matching the yield on sUSDe, according to the pseudonymous observer Clouted. Keep an eye on this one.
As for market leader bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency has bounced back to nearly $97,000 as of writing — a level we’ve seen several times since mid-November — after testing dip demand around $93,500 on Tuesday. Prices on Korean exchanges are back in sync with their global counterparts after Tuesday’s flash crash caused by the announcement of martial law.
Traders are eagerly awaiting Fed Chairman Powell’s speech later today, plus Friday’s nonfarms payroll report, hoping for a boost in bitcoin price volatility. With BTC’s Coinbase premium returning, the case for renewed bullishness looks promising unless Powell throws cold water on December rate-cut expectations.
Meantime, beware of engagement farming on social media. Some X accounts are buzzing about record short positions in CME’s ether futures, claiming it’s suppressing ether prices. That might not be so. Most of those shorts could be a part of the popular price-neutral cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy that includes long positions in the spot market or spot ETFs. It’s no coincidence that Farside Investors data shows there’s been a net inflow of $714 million into U.S.-listed ether ETFs in the past seven trading days.
Looking at the broader market, Aptos has hit a milestone with its DeFi total value locked surpassing $1 billion, a staggering 19-fold growth year-on-year. The number of transactions and the average cost to transact on the Avalanche C-Chain are at their highest since April and August, just as the Avalanche9000 upgrade approaches, according to data source Artemis.
Tron’s TRX token and the on-chain perpetual options protocol GammaSwap’s GS token have reached record highs, while a whale sold a whopping 240 billion PEPE, according to Lookonchain data. Decentralized exchange PancakeSwap has launched «PancakeSwap Springboard» to create and list tokens, taking the page out of Pumpfun’s book. Expect more speculative froth.
In traditional markets, keep your eye on risk-off signals. The yen remains upbeat and Wall Street executives are aggressively reducing their stocks, driving the ratio of insider sellers to buyers to nearly 6x, according to the Kobeissi Letter. So stay alert out there!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 4, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases November’s Services ISM Report on Business. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Est. 55.5 vs Prev. 56.0.
Dec. 4, 1:40 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell is taking part in a moderated discussion at The New York Times DealBook Summit in New York City.
Dec. 4, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases the Beige Book, an economic summary used ahead of FOMC meetings.
Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s Employment Situation Report.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 183K vs Prev. 12K.
Unemployment Rate Est. 4.1% vs Prev. 4.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY Prev. 4%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Ethereum staking platform RocketPool to hold monthly community call at 10 a.m.
Autonolas (OLAS) proposal to launch new bonding products on Base blockchain ends 3 p.m.
Qubic lowers token transaction fees from 1 million QUBIC tokens to 100 QUBIC, worth fractions of a penny.
Unlocks
Taiko unlocked 11% of circulating supply, worth over $10 million at current rates, at 5 a.m.
Token Launches
StrawberryAI is to launch mainnet on Dec. 5, time unspecified.
Conferences:
Dec. 3 — 4: FT’s Global Banking Summit (London)
Dec. 4 — 5: India Blockchain Week 2024 Conference (Bangalore, India)
Dec. 4 — 5: W3N 2024 (Narva, Estonia)
Dec. 6: Digital Finance Summit Summit 2024 (Brussels)
Dec. 7: Bitcoin Baden 2024 (Baden, Switzerland)
Dec. 9 — 12: Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024 (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Dec. 9 — 13: Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024
Dec. 12 — 13: Global Blockchain Show (Dubai)
Dec. 12 — 14: Taipei Blockchain Week 2024 (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 16 — 17: Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit (Washington)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
«Dino coins» from as long ago as 2018 are catching a bid in a refreshing move away from memecoins.
Several tokens popularized back during what was arguably the first altcoin bull market are following XRP’s 400% price rally over the past 30 days with rallies of their own for no immediately apparent reason.
Stellar (XLM), bitcoin cash, eos (EOS), tron (TRX) and Hedera (HBAR) have gained at least 50% over the past week, CoinGecko data shows, in a move that has outperformed bitcoin and nearly every «new» token that is being promoted or hyped on Crypto Twitter.
The term «dino coins» reflects a narrative shift where older cryptocurrencies are no longer seen as outdated but as resilient, seasoned projects. This shift can be attributed to their survival through multiple market cycles, which gives them a certain credibility among newer, less-proven offerings.
Derivatives Positioning
The bitcoin and ether annualized three-month futures basis on offshore exchanges remain flat at around 15%. On the CME, ETH boasts a slightly higher basis at 17%, with BTC at 14%, offering attractive returns to cash and carry traders.
Positioning in ETH remains elevated, with global futures and perpetual open interest at a record high of 338,680. The BTC market has cooled, with open interest pulling back to 609,470, down 8% from the peak of 663,710 seen last month.
On decentralized options protocol Derive, a trader collected $1.66 million in premiums by selling bitcoin March expiry calls at strikes in the $105,000 to $130,000 range.
Short-term BTC calls are trading at a slight discount to puts, but long-term options continue to show a bull bias. ETH calls are expensive relative to puts across the curve. (Data source: Amberdata, VeloData, Derive, Deribit)
Market Movements:
BTC is up 0.9 % from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $96,460.42 (24hrs: +0.64%)
ETH is up 3.46% at $3,734.92 (24hrs: +3.22%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.39% to 3,954.73 (24hrs: +2.54%)
Ether staking yield is up 30 bps to 3.46%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0264% (28.9% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.13% at 106.46
Gold is unchanged at $2,646.45/oz
Silver is down 0.41% to $30.86/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 39,276.39
Hang Seng closed unchanged at 19,742.46
FTSE is down 0.43% at 8,323,87.87
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.4% at 4,897.96
DJIA closed -0.17% to 44,705.53
S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,049.88
Nasdaq closed +0.83% at 19,480.91
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.18% at 25,635.73
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.44% at 2,327.36
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.22%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% to 6078.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.56% to 21405.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.48% at 45016
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 55.17% (-0.61%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0383 (1.78%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 729 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $61.013
Total Fees: 15.5 BTC/ $1.5 million
CME Futures Open Interest: 185,485 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 36.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.40%
Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 423,902
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
XRP’s daily chart shows that while prices set a new high Tuesday, the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, did not confirm the move, diverging bearishly. It indicates that the bullish momentum has weakened and prices may turn lower.
TradFi Assets
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $373.43 (-1.81%), up 3.23% at $385.50 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $309.35 (+2.3%), up 1.62% at $314.36 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.08 (+5.03%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $25.13 (-1.95%), up 2.03% at $25.65 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.14 (+0.33%), up 0.66% at $12.22 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (+2.24%), up 0.53% at $17.67 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.95 (-3.93%), unchanged in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.56 (-0.25%), up 2.58% at $28.27 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $63.63 (+4.81%), up 2% at $64.90 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net inflow: $676 million
Cumulative net inflows: $31.70 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.080 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net inflow: $132.6 million
Cumulative net inflows: $733.6 million
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.077 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
December’s tally of the daily unique on-chain wallets interacting with AAVE surpassed 13,000, the most since November 2021.
The increase comes amid increased interest in borrowing stablecoins.
While You Were Sleeping
South Korean Lawmakers Move to Impeach President (Financial Times): South Korea’s opposition initiated proceedings on Wednesday to remove President Yoon Suk Yeol after his failed martial law declaration deepened a political crisis. Around 190 lawmakers plan to debate the impeachment motion on Thursday and vote by the weekend, which could suspend Yoon if two-thirds of parliament supports the move.
Amid Political Chaos, Bank of Korea Says It Will Boost Short-Term Liquidity and Deploy Measures to Stabilize the FX Market (CNBC): South Korea’s central bank pledged to enhance liquidity and stabilize the currency market after lawmakers overturned President Yoon’s martial law order. Following an emergency meeting Wednesday morning, the bank announced temporary loans as Korean stocks swung sharply, with the MSCI South Korea ETF briefly hitting a 52-week low.
DCG Confirms Reports Foundry Layoffs, Says It’s 16% of U.S. Employees (CoinDesk): Foundry, a Bitcoin mining pool owned by Digital Currency Group (DCG), laid off 16% of its U.S. staff and a small team in India, correcting earlier reports of larger cuts. The bitcoin hashprice index remains significantly down year-over-year, but has improved slightly in recent months, supported by the cryptocurrency’s rising price.
Grayscale Files to Convert Solana Trust Into ETF (CoinDesk): Grayscale filed to convert its $134M Solana Trust (GSOL) into an ETF, becoming the fifth firm in the Solana ETF race after Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares and Canary Capital. The filing follows Grayscale’s successful conversion of its Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts into ETFs earlier this year.
Move Over XRP’s Korea Narrative, The 400% Price Rally Has Support of Coinbase Whales (CoinDesk): XRP has surged over 400% in 30 days to $2.60, with U.S. investors driving a Coinbase premium of 3%–13% over Binance and Upbit, reflecting stronger buying pressure. However, trading volumes remain much higher in South Korea, where XRP/KRW accounts for 26% of activity on Upbit.
What to Expect as France’s Government Faces No Confidence Vote (The New York Times): French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a likely no-confidence vote that would topple his government, making it the shortest-lived in France’s Fifth Republic. If ousted, Barnier would serve in a caretaker role while President Macron appoints a new prime minister, with the rejected budget forcing temporary fiscal measures to keep the government running.
In the Ether
Uncategorized
Vitalik Buterin Proposes Replacing Ethereum’s EVM With RISC-V

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared a new proposal over the weekend that would radically overhaul the system that powers its smart contracts.
Buterin’s suggestion, which he posted on Ethereum’s primary developer forum, involves replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine, the software engine that powers programs on the network, with RISC-V, a popular open-source framework that offers built-in encryption and other benefits. .
The EVM is a key piece of Ethereum’s underlying design and has been seen as one of the main elements that helped the network succeed in a crowded field of other blockchains. Many non-Ethereum networks have used the EVM to build their own chains, as has a growing ecosystem of layer-2 networks built atop Ethereum, including Coinbase’s Base chain.
The EVM has long played an essential role in Ethereum’s development. Other chains that use it can seamlessly connect with apps on Ethereum, and developers on EVM-based networks can transition more smoothly to building applications directly within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Buterin argued that transitioning Ethereum to a RISC-V architecture will “greatly improve the efficiency of the Ethereum execution layer, resolving one of the primary scaling bottlenecks, and can also greatly improve the execution layer’s simplicity.” (The execution layer is the part of the network that reads smart contracts.)
The RISC-V architecture, which has seen limited adoption in other blockchain ecosystems, like Polkadot, could offer «efficiency gains over 100x» for certain kinds of applications, according to Buterin. These improvements could reduce the network’s costs — long seen as a major barrier to adoption.
Among the primary benefits of RISC-V is its native support for certain kinds of encryption. Transitioning to the new architecture could, in Buterin’s view, be a simpler alternative to the community’s current plan, which involves rebuilding the EVM around zero-knowledge cryptography.
Buterin’s proposal is something developers would tackle over the long term, comparable to projects like the Beam Chain, which is looking to revamp Ethereum’s consensus layer.
The RISC-V comes at a time of broader soul-searching for the Ethereum community. Recently, transaction volumes have declined, and Ethereum’s token has lagged behind the broader market.
Earlier this year, the Ethereum Foundation, the primary non-profit that supports the development of the broader Ethereum ecosystem, underwent a leadership transition in an attempt to remedy the impression among community members that the ecosystem lacked a clear roadmap and was losing its lead compared to competitors.
Read more: Top Ethereum Researcher’s Dramatic Proposal Draws Standing-Room-Only Crowd in Bangkok
Uncategorized
The GPT Gold Rush Is Failing Crypto Traders

The AI revolution in trading should be a game-changer, but instead, it’s become a quick money grab. Everywhere you turn, yet another ChatGPT wrapper is being marketed as the next big thing for crypto traders. The promises? “AI-powered insights,” “next-gen trading signals,” “perfect agentic trading.” The reality? Overhyped, overpriced, and underperforming vaporware that doesn’t scratch the surface of what’s truly needed.
Saad Naja is a speaker at the AI Summit during Consensus 2025, Toronto, May 14-16.
AI should be designed to augment the trader experience, not sideline it. Companies like Spectral Labs and Creator.Bid are innovating with AI agents but risk heading toward vaporware status if they fail to deliver real utility beyond surface-level GPT wrappers. They have an overreliance on Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT without offering any unique utility, prioritizing AI buzzwords over substance and AI architecture transparency.
AI Agents Should Augment Trading
Combining AI and trading is a transformative leap, for humans to make trading gains more effectively with powerful foresight, investing less time, but not to replace humans from the trading equation entirely. Traders don’t need another emotionless agent with unfettered agency. They need tools that help them trade better, faster, and more confidently in environments that simulate real market volatility before going trading in the real markets.
Too many GPT wrappers rush to market with fluffy, half-baked agents that prey on fear, confusion, and FOMO. With barely-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) and little transparency, some of these AI trading “solutions” reinforce set and forget bad habits.
Trading isn’t just about hyper speed or automation, it’s about thoughtful decision-making. It’s about balancing science with intuition, data with emotion. In this first wave of agent design, what’s missing is the art of the trader’s journey: their skill progression, unique strategy development, and fast evolution through interactive mentorship and simulations.
Just Fancy Calculators
The real innovation lies in developing a meta-model that blends predictive trading LLMs, real-time APIs, sentiment analysis, and on-chain data, while filtering through the chaos of Crypto Twitter.
Emotion and sentiment do move markets. If your AI Trader agent can’t detect when a community flips bullish or bearish, or front-run that signal, it’s a non-starter.
GPT Wrappers rejecting emotion-driven market moves offer lower-risk, lower-reward gains within portfolio optimization. A better agent reads nuance, tone, and psycholinguistics, just as skilled traders do.
And while 20 years of high-quality trading data spanning multiple cycles, markets and instruments is a great start, true mastery comes through engagement and progression loops that stick. The best agents learn from data, people and thrive with coaching.
Better to Lose Pretend Money
Financial systems intimidate most people. Many never start, or blow up fast. Simulated environments help fix that. The thrill of winning, the pain of losing, and the joy of bouncing back are what build resilience and shift gears from sterile chat and voice interfaces.
AI Trader agents should teach this, back-test and simulate trading comeback strategies in virtual trading environments, not just of successful trades but comebacks from the unforeseen events. Think of it like learning to drive: real growth comes from time on the road and close calls, not just reading your state’s handbook.
Simulations can show traders how to spot candlestick patterns, manage risk, adapt to volatility, or respond to new tariff headlines, without losing their heads in the process. By learning through agents, traders can refine strategies and own their positions, win or lose.
Before My Bags, Win My Trust
AI Agents’ life-like responses are fast improving to being indistinguishable from human responses through conversational and contextual depth (closing the “Uncanny Valley” gap). But for traders to accept and trust these agents, they need to feel real, be interactive, intelligent, and relatable.
Agents with personality, ones that vibe like real traders, whether cautious portfolio managers or cautious portfolio optimizers can become trusted copilots. The key to this trust is control. Traders must have the right to refuse or approve the AI Agent’s calls.
On-demand chat access is another lever, alongside visibility of trading gains and comebacks built on the sweat and tears of real traders. The best agents won’t just execute trades, they’ll explain why. They’ll evolve with the trader. They’ll earn access to manage funds only after proving themselves, like interns earning a seat on the trading desk.
Fun, slick AAA aesthetics and progression will keep traders coming back in shared experiences opposed to solo missions. Through tokenization and co-learning models, AI agents could become not just tools, but co-owned assets — solving crypto’s trader liquidity problem along the way.
First-to-market players must be viewed with healthy skepticism. If Trader AI Agents are going to make a real impact, they must move beyond sterile chat interfaces and become dynamic, educational, and emotionally intelligent.
Until then, GPT wrappers remain what they are slick distractions dressed up as innovation, extracting more value from users than they deliver, as the AI token market correction indicated.
The convergence of AI and crypto should empower traders. With the right incentives and a trader-first mindset, AI Agents could unlock unprecedented learnings and earnings. Not by replacing the trader but by evolving them.
Uncategorized
Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Spree Has Minimal Impact on Prices, TD Cowen Says

Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.
The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.
A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market
Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.
According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.
“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn’t appear plausible that Strategy’s purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.
Correlation? Not Much.
The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.
Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.
What About Outpacing Miners?
Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.
Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.
“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.
Building Value, Not Hype
While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.
Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.
With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.
“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy’s Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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