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CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index Falls to Two-Year Lows Signaling Pain for BTC Bulls

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Short-term price dips are par for the course in bitcoin’s (BTC) bull markets, but one indicator suggests the current decline from recent highs may reflect a deeper structural shift in market dynamics.

Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 as European morning hours on Friday, a 23% drop from its January peak of $109,000. The fall has rattled investors and fueled debate over whether this marks the start of a new bear market or a fleeting correction within a broader bullish trend.

Such pullbacks are not uncommon — BTC has weathered similar declines in past bull cycles, often rebounding to new heights. Yet, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a composite metric designed to gauge bitcoin’s market health, shows signs of deeper weakness.

The index evaluates ten critical indicators—spanning network activity (like transaction volume), investor profitability, market liquidity, among other factors, assigning a score from 0 to 100. Higher scores denote a robust, bullish environment, while lower readings flag bearish conditions.

As of now, the Bull Score Index sits at a troubling 20 — the lowest since January 2023, when bitcoin sat around $16,000 post the collapse of then-behemoth crypto exchange FTX.

Eight of the ten metrics tracked by the index show warning signs, with network activity been bearish since December 2024 and dried up transaction volumes and liquidity.

“Historically, bitcoin has only sustained major price rallies when the Bull Score is above 60, while prolonged readings below 40 have aligned with bear markets,” CryptoQuant analysts said in the Thursday report.

Investor profitability has waned as short-term holders face unrealized losses, while demand softens — U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, once aggressive buyers, have registered a net $180 million outflows in the past 30 days, or among the highest rates of withdrawals since they started trading at the beginning of 2024.

In previous cycles, readings below 40 for weeks or months have preceded extended bear phases, like the 2022 slump that saw bitcoin shed over 60% of its value from peak.

The coming weeks will be pivotal. Either the index rebounds, signaling renewed strength, or it entrenches below 40, cementing a bearish shift that could test bitcoin’s $80,000 support zone — one flagged by analysts as a critical level to watch for.

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Bitcoin Hovers at $85K as Fed’s Waller Suggests ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts if Tariffs Resume

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Bitcoin (BTC) drifted ever so gently upwards Monday as the broader market adjusts favorably to trade-related news.

The largest cryptocurrency was up 1.6% in the last 24 hours and is now trading just shy of $85,000. Ether (ETH), meanwhile, rose 2.7% in the same period of time to $1,630. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index — consisted of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — advanced 1.2%, led by gains in SOL and AVAX.

After a couple of wild weeks, the stock market also edged higher today, the Nasdaq closing with a 0.6% gain and the S&P 500 rising 0.8%. Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA), led among crypto stocks with roughly 3% gains.

The modest rally came as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalling that a return of the original punitive Trump tariffs would trigger the need for sizable «bad news» rate cuts.

«[Tariff] effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy,» said Waller in a speech. «If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.»

Further easing concerns was the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, confirming to hold off on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion until July 14 to «allow space for negotiations.»

Odds that the U.S. and EU will reach a trade agreement to avoid tariffs rose to 65% on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly stated that a deal was in the works.

Bitcoin fundamentals recovering

Bitcoin’s relief rally from last week’s tariff turmoil stalled out around the $85,000 resistance level, but the network’s improving fundamentals spur hopes for a breakout, crypto analytics firm SwissBlock Technologies noted.

«Since March, we’ve seen a consistent inflow of new participants,» Swissblock analysts wrote in a Telegram broadcast. «Liquidity is stabilizing, no more erratic swings from early 2025.»

«Once the liquidity gauge holds above the 50 line, short-term price action tends to follow with strength,» Swissblock analysts said. «With network growth aligning, key levels aren’t just being revisited, they’re being accumulated.»

«This is the kind of structural support that underpins sustainable rallies,» they concluded.

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SEC Delays Decisions on In-Kind Redemptions, Ether ETF Staking

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is not yet ready to make a decision on two critical features that issuers of the spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are hoping to add to their products.

The regulator delayed a decision on whether it will allow in-kind redemptions for WisdomTree’s Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) and VanEck’s Bitcoin Fund (BITB) and Ethereum Fund (ETHW) on Monday. It also moved its deadline for a decision in regards to a proposal by Grayscale to allow staking its Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Mini Ethereum Trust (ETH), which the asset manager’s exchange, NYSE Arca had requested in February.

Cboe, the exchange that is associated with five of the other issuers of an ether ETF, including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck and Invesco/Galaxy, submitted its amended filing in March for the Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) and the Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET).

The SEC has not previously allowed staking in spot ether ETFs. But with the appointment of new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who was confirmed by the Senate last week, things could change quickly.

Several other jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Canada and Europe, have already green-lighted staking for ETFs, but that doesn’t put much pressure on the SEC, said one expert.

“The SEC will take their time and move as fast or as slow as they want,” said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “They don’t care what other regulators are doing in my experience, they might learn from them but I don’t think a regulator approving something is going to make the SEC jump through hoops and catch up. They’ll go at their own pace.”

The regulator now has until June 3rd to make a decision on in-kind redemptions on Bitwise’s and WisdomTree’s products and June 1st to decide on Grayscale’s staking proposal.

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Circle’s EURC Stablecoin Surges 43% to Record Supply as Dollar Troubles Fuel Demand

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Circle’s euro-backed stablecoin, EURC, surged to a record supply as mounting U.S. trade tensions and a weakening dollar likely fuel demand for euro-denominated digital assets.

EURC’s supply grew 43% over the past month to 217 million tokens worth $246 million, ranking above Paxos’ Global Dollar (USDG) and below Ripple’s RLUSD by market capitalization, RWA.xyz data shows. Most of the EURC tokens circulate on the Ethereum network, up 35% in a month to 112 million, while Solana saw the fastest, 75% expansion to 70 million tokens. Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2, also saw a 30% growth to 30 million in EURC supply.

The token also experienced an uptick in on-chain activity, with active addresses rising 66% to 22,000 and the monthly transfer volume surpassing $2.5 billion, up 47% in a month, per RWA.xyz.

EURC is currently the largest euro stablecoin on the market, but it lags far behind its dollar-denominated counterparts. Dollar-pegged stablecoins make up 99% of the rapidly growing stablecoin market, led by Circle’s $58 billion USDC and rival Tether’s $143 billion USDT token.

The accelerating growth of EURC could be a sign of growing demand for diversification to euro-denominated digital assets, particularly as global investors navigate increasing economic uncertainties in the U.S. with the Trump administration wide-scale tariff rollout. The greenback weakened 9% against the euro since the start of the year.

Xapo Bank, a Gibraltar-based Bitcoin-focused financial services firm, reported Monday a 50% increase in euro deposit volumes during the first quarter, outpacing the 20% rise in USDC stablecoin deposits. Meanwhile, deposits in USDT declined by over 13%.

«This rapid increase in volume came amidst mounting concern about the future of U.S. dollar primacy and the threat of a U.S. recession as markets braced for Trump’s planned ‘Liberation Day’ in April,» the firm said in the report.

Stablecoin swap volumes between foreign currency pairs on Ethereum-based decentralized exchanges also soared to multi-year highs last week, dominated by the EUR-U.S. dollar pair, Blockworks data showed.

EURC also has likely benefited from Tether’s withdrawal of its euro-backed stablecoin (EURT) with E.U.-wide MiCA regulations going into effect this year, while a number of exchanges delisted USDT for E.U. users to comply with regulations, including Binance at the end of March.

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